Commentary Archive - MarketThoughts.com

Market Commentary Archive

06/12/2008 Don't Underestimate the Impact of Sovereign Wealth Funds
06/08/2008 Capitulation Among the Oil Shorts?
06/05/2008 Some Different Looks at the Yield Curve
06/01/2008 Our Reasons for Turning Neutral on the U.S. Stock Market
05/29/2008 The Continuing Deleveraging in the U.S. Stock Market
05/21/2008 Special Alert: Market Liquidity Waning
05/18/2008 The Message of the NYSE A/D Line
05/15/2008 Structured / Quant Finance Boom Far From Over
05/11/2008 When Will Small Cap Turnaround Situations be a Buy?
05/08/2008 A Simple Small-Cap Value Screen
05/04/2008 Small Cap Value Stocks and the U.S. Dollar
05/01/2008 The Deleveraging in the U.S. Stock Market
04/27/2008 Reflections and Black Swans
04/20/2008 MarketThoughts’ Roadmap for the Next Six Months
04/17/2008 Some Random Thoughts
04/13/2008 The Great Deleveraging – Part II
04/10/2008 The 2008 Global Financial Stability Report
04/06/2008 The End of “Market Fundamentalism”
04/03/2008 Putting Recent Volatility into Historical Perspective
03/30/2008 An Instinct to Swarm
03/27/2008 This Game of Musical Chairs
03/23/2008 The Great Deleveraging
03/20/2008 Recurring Revenues and Industrial Distribution
03/17/2008 The Liquidity Put
03/16/2008 The Prospective Yield of Capital
03/11/2008 What's Ahead for the U.S. Stock Market?
03/10/2008 The Fed's Roadmap
03/09/2008 The Message of the MarketThoughts Global Diffusion Index
03/06/2008 Selecting Municipalities for Investment
03/02/2008 A Seismic Shift in the Commodity Market
02/28/2008 Summary of CFA Society of Los Angeles’ Annual Forecast Dinner
02/24/2008 The Rules of Engagement
02/21/2008 Suits Me
02/17/2008 Taylor Rule Targeting a Fed Funds Rate Below 2?
02/14/2008 Pension Reform Part III
02/10/2008 Contrarian and Sentiment Indicators
02/07/2008 Turning a Research Paper into a Trading System TRPITS, Part V
02/03/2008 Looking Beyond a Recession
01/31/2008 Getting Close to Resolution
01/27/2008 Putting Things into Perspective
01/24/2008 Look for a 50 Basis Point Cut on January 30th
01/20/2008 Capitulation this Week?
01/17/2008 The Value in Uncertainty
01/16/2008 Special Alert: America On Sale
01/13/2008 Reflation Soon?
01/09/2008 Special Alert: NASDAQ COMP Severely Oversold
01/08/2008 The State of the U.S. Market
01/06/2008 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2008 - Part II
01/03/2008 Using Public Information to Find a Trading System Edge
12/27/2007 Identifying Short and Long Term Trends for 2008 - Part I
12/20/2007 Lessons Learned and Looking Forward
12/16/2007 When Will the Selling Stop?
12/13/2007 A Dozen Questions to Make You a Better Trader
12/09/2007 Global Economic Growth Continues to Disappoint
12/06/2007 Divergences Still Abound
12/02/2007 Too Little, Too Late?
11/29/2007 Global Stock Markets Now at Crossroads
11/25/2007 Quick “Market Thoughts” for the Upcoming Week
11/22/2007 A Quick Review of our Technical Indicators
11/18/2007 Should We Even Pay Attention to Financial Stocks?
11/15/2007 The Price of Conformism
11/11/2007 Looking for a Market Catalyst
11/08/2007 Glass Half Full For Value Stocks
11/04/2007 The Various Bear Markets
11/01/2007 Making Sense of all the Confusion
10/28/2007 Yield Spreads Telling a Different Story
10/25/2007 The Social Security and Medicare Burden
10/19/2007 Are Pharma Stocks Making You Ill?
10/14/2007 “The Conundrum” in Reverse?
10/11/2007 Germany Rolling Over?
10/07/2007 Global Economy Now Slowing Down
10/04/2007 Halloween, and Some Scary October Values
09/30/2007 Shifts in Market Behavior
09/27/2007 2007 2Q Flow of Funds Update
09/23/2007 Putting Things Into Proper Perspective
09/18/2007 Credit Crisis Most Likely Over. Now What?
09/16/2007 Tactical Trade on the U.S. Dollar?
09/13/2007 One Possible Model of VIX Stock Market Timing
09/09/2007 Spain – the Weakest Link – A Redux
09/06/2007 Uncertainty Still Abounds
09/02/2007 Does Short-Selling Have a Place in One's Portfolio?
08/30/2007 Real Action Should Come After Labor Day Weekend
08/26/2007 The Black Swan
08/23/2007 Credit Crunch
08/19/2007 A Quick Word on the Discount Rate and the “Ben Bernanke Grand Experiment”
08/16/2007 Bill Rempel on Potential Buying Candidates - Part II
08/12/2007 Market Not Close to Capitulation Just Yet
08/09/2007 Risks Still to the Downside
08/02/2007 Bill Rempel on Potential Buying Candidates
07/29/2007 An Update of our Technical Indicators
07/26/2007 An Update of the US Retirement Market – and its Potential Impacts
07/22/2007 The Most Vulnerable Sectors
07/19/2007 Recycling
07/15/2007 Where is Stock Market Liquidity Now Heading?
07/11/2007 Is the Correction Here?
07/08/2007 An Analysis of the Sixth (and Last) Cyclical Bull Market Within the 1929 to 1949 Secular Bear Market
07/04/2007 Market Timing Made EZ
07/01/2007 High Short Interest the Achilles' Heel of Bears
06/28/2007 Should We Be Worried About the 2007 Hurricane Season?
06/24/2007 The Times They Are a-Changin
06/21/2007 Let's Be Careful Out There
06/17/2007 Market Internals Weakening
06/10/2007 Market Not Close to a Bottom
06/07/2007 Mid-Week Liquidity Update: A Discussion of High Yields
06/03/2007 Liquidity and the Yen Carry Trade Redux
05/31/2007 Liquidity Conditions Continue to Deteriorate
05/28/2007 A Worrying Headwind for the U.S. Stock Market
05/24/2007 Leverage, Leverage, and more Leverage
05/20/2007 U.S. Stock Market Still Overbought and No Longer Bullish
05/17/2007 In the Gurus' Footsteps
05/13/2007 A Take on the 2007 Berkshire Annual Shareholders' Meeting
05/09/2007 A Change in our DJIA Timing System
05/06/2007 Building the Foundations for New Retirement Systems
05/03/2007 Dow's Longest Winning Streak Since Summer 1955 – What Now?
04/29/2007 Bill Rempel on Bon-Ton Stores
04/26/2007 Markets Getting Overbought But Still Bullish
04/22/2007 Rick Konrad on Expectations Investing
04/19/2007 A Review of the Stock Market
04/15/2007 The New Frontiers of Global Investing
04/12/2007 The Global Financial Stability Report – An Update
04/08/2007 Are Cover Stories Effective Contrarian Indicators?
04/01/2007 Housing Market Decline Not Over Yet
03/29/2007 Is the Latest Correction Over?
03/25/2007 Brand Name Large Caps Still a Buy
03/22/2007 Rick Konrad on Financial Services Companies
03/18/2007 An Analysis of the Fifth Cyclical Bull Market Within the 1929 to 1949 Secular Bear Market
03/15/2007 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Update
03/11/2007 2006 4Q Flow of Funds Update
03/04/2007 Our Roadmap Ahead…
02/28/2007 The U.S. Stock Market – Where to From Here?
02/25/2007 An Update on Global Liquidity and Commodities
02/22/2007 Is the Rise of Margin Debt a Danger?
02/18/2007 A Potential Short in the Midst of a Bull Market?
02/15/2007 An Annuity That is Actually a Good Buy?
02/11/2007 Japan – A Final Goodbye to Deflation
02/08/2007 Taiwan Still Oversold?
02/04/2007 Bearish Sentiment Not Justified
02/01/2007 REIT Market Overheating?
01/28/2007 Retirement – Are You Ready?
01/25/2007 The View From 20,000 Feet
01/21/2007 Market Overbought But Uptrend Remains Intact
01/14/2007 The Permanent Income Hypothesis
01/11/2007 An Early 2007 Market Round Up
01/07/2007 Identifying Trends and Risks for 2007, Part 2
01/01/2007 Identifying Trends and Risks for 2007
12/28/2006 Resolutions for the New Year
12/21/2006 Margin Debt Approaching Record Highs
12/17/2006 What is Up with Natural Gas?
12/14/2006 The Bank of England on the UK's “Financial Dark Matter”
12/10/2006 The State of U.S. Households' Balance Sheets – a Third Quarter Update
12/03/2006 Asset Allocation for the Upcoming Year
11/30/2006 The Budget Deficit's Effect on the Dollar
11/26/2006 Random Thoughts for the Rest of this Year and Beyond
11/23/2006 Still a Believer in the Dollar Rally Scenario
11/19/2006 Random Thoughts on Life, Trend Changes, and Demographs
11/12/2006 A Year-End Surprise in the Dollar?
11/09/2006 Election Jitters and a Tidbit on South Korea
11/05/2006 Relative Valuation Still On the Side of Equities
10/29/2006 The Boom in Absolute Return Strategies Mutual Funds
10/26/2006 Not Too Hot and Not Too Cold?
10/22/2006 The Importance of the “Roll Return” in Commodity Futures Returns
10/20/2006 The World of Private Infrastructure Investments
10/15/2006 Stock Market Breadth Continues to Improve
10/12/2006 The Merrill Lynch World Wealth Report
10/08/2006 Are Things Really Different This Time?
10/01/2006 Corporate Profits – Where Do We Go From Here?
09/28/2006 Relative Valuations and a Review of Two Sentiment Indicators
09/24/2006 The State of U.S. Households' Balance Sheets
09/21/2006 The Yen Carry Trade Revisited
09/17/2006 Canadian Dollar Now the Lone Holdout
09/10/2006 Four-Year Cycle Low Now the Consensus
09/07/2006 Who Will be the Casualty in a Slowing Economy? (Part II)
09/04/2006 Let's Get the Action Started!
08/31/2006 Stock Market Action Encouraging
08/27/2006 Beware of Simplified Models
08/24/2006 Bank of England on Housing's Impact on Consumer Spending
08/20/2006 The Evolution of the Markets
08/17/2006 Sysco – A Beneficiary of Lower Inflation
08/13/2006 The New Pension Legislation and a Challenging Market
08/10/2006 Is Our Short-Term Scenario Busted?
08/06/2006 The Fed Meeting and My “Preferred” Scenario
08/03/2006 Who Will be the Casualty in a Slowing Economy?
07/30/2006 A Buying Point is Near
07/27/2006 An Update on the Markets
07/16/2006 An Analysis of the Cyclical Bull Markets Within the 1929 to 1949 Secular Bear Market
07/09/2006 The Bulls vs. the Bears
07/06/2006 Earnings Season Now a Priority
07/02/2006 Top Calling Remains a Thankless Job
06/29/2006 Spain – One of the Weakest Links in Europe
06/25/2006 Long Bonds Starting to be a Buy
06/22/2006 China - Just Humming Along and a Guest Commentary on Ninetowns Digital
06/18/2006 What is the ARMS Index Currently Saying?
06/15/2006 Middle East and Central Asia – Canary in the Coal Mine?
06/11/2006 Oil Shortages this Hurricane Season - Last Thing to Worry About
06/04/2006 Will We Ever See a World Awash With Oil Again?
06/01/2006 What is this World Coming to?
05/28/2006 Many U.S. Mega Caps Now Oversold
05/25/2006 More Important Questions for Economic Survival in the 21st Century
05/21/2006 A Lowry’s 90% Downside Day Revisited
05/18/2006 Solving the Chinese Riddle
05/14/2006 The Next Big Trend and the “Double Merit” Scenario
05/07/2006 Playing the Probabilities
05/04/2006 Requiem for a May-November Romance
04/30/2006 Divergences and the Dash to Trash
04/23/2006 The Message of the Fed Cleveland Median CPI
04/20/2006 Calling All Individual Stock Investors
04/16/2006 The New Financial Order?
04/13/2006 The Long Bond Secular Bull Market is Over
04/09/2006 Keep Your Head Straight
04/02/2006 Will Corporate Profits Continue to Outperform?
03/30/2006 The Long View
03/26/2006 A Market Slowdown Still Looms
03/23/2006 Market Internals Still Weakening
03/19/2006 Inflation Still a Factor
03/16/2006 Some Parting Thoughts
03/12/2006 Rising Rates Now a Given
03/09/2006 Some Comments on Warren Buffett and the Stock Market
03/05/2006 Where does the Evidence Point to?
02/26/2006 Market Now in Dangerous Zone
02/23/2006 What the Investment Folks are Really Saying
02/19/2006 Leverage and Divergences Getting Red Hot
02/16/2006 A Bird's Eye View of the Financial Markets
02/12/2006 Divergences Everywhere!
02/09/2006 The Bank of England Financial Stability Review
02/05/2006 Small Caps Are a “Sell”
01/29/2006 Will Small Cap Out-performance Continue?
01/26/2006 Bernanke and Brand Name Watch
01/22/2006 DJIA Timing System Short at 10,870
01/19/2006 2006 Brand Name Watch Update
01/15/2006 Getting Back to the Basics in 2006
01/12/2006 Mid-Week Market Evaluation
01/08/2006 Identifying Risks in the Upcoming Year
01/05/2006 An Analysis of the Cyclical Bull Markets Within the 1966 to 1982 Secular Bear Market
12/25/2005 A Merry Christmas to All
12/22/2005 Flattening Yield Curve: Does the Stock Market Care?
12/18/2005 Have Currency Investors Gone Loonie?
12/15/2005 Yield Curve Continues to Flatten
12/11/2005 Market Overbought But Not Out
12/08/2005 PetroDollars and Japan
12/04/2005 Global Liquidity Warning
11/27/2005 A Review of MarketThoughts
11/24/2005 A Short, Thanksgiving Commentary
11/20/2005 Copper in the Midst of Topping Out
11/17/2005 What Retail Investors are Telling Us, Once Again
11/13/2005 The Most Vulnerable Sector
11/10/2005 Seeking Guides for the Financial Markets
11/06/2005 Did the Retail Investor Just Show His Hand?
10/30/2005 The Concept of Risk
10/27/2005 The Ben Bernanke Grand Experiment
10/23/2005 Our MarketThoughts “Excess M” Indicator
10/20/2005 The Bill Gross' Way of Making Money
10/16/2005 The Mean Reversion Way of Making Money
10/13/2005 Market is Now Oversold - Can It Get more Oversold?
10/09/2005 Sell Financials and Commodities
10/02/2005 One Indicator Is Not Enough
09/29/2005 We Will Remain 25% Short, For Now
09/18/2005 Copper Prices - Too Overbought
09/15/2005 Understanding Six Sigma
09/11/2005 A World of Financial Engineering
09/08/2005 Major Brand Names Still Not Confirming
09/04/2005 Let the Action Finally Begin
08/28/2005 It is Time to be Careful
08/25/2005 All About Oil
08/21/2005 NYSE Short Interest Again at All-Time High
08/18/2005 Bank Index Breaking Down Further
08/14/2005 Our Position on the U.S. Dollar and an Update on Energy Prices
08/11/2005 Demographics do Matter
08/07/2005 A New Era?
08/04/2005 Worldwide Markets Rundown
07/31/2005 Natural Gas - The Other Bull?
07/28/2005 The Significance of the Equity Put-to-Call Ratio
07/24/2005 Nothing is Obvious - and 50% Short in Our DJIA Timing System
07/21/2005 Economic and Stock Market Observations
07/17/2005 What to do About the Housing Bubble?
07/14/2005 DJIA Timing System Going Short
07/10/2005 Our Ignorance About Crude Oil
07/07/2005 An Update on Brand Name Watching
07/03/2005 Our U.S. Dollar Index Revision
06/30/2005 The Elusive “Blow Off”
06/26/2005 Dow Theory Redux
06/19/2005 Correction in Store for the Market
06/16/2005 Where I See the Market Heading
06/12/2005 Economic Slowdown Still Continuing
06/09/2005 Critical Juncture in the Markets
06/05/2005 Long Bond Capitulation?
06/01/2005 An Update on the U.S. Housing Bubble
05/30/2005 The MarketThoughts Global Diffusion Index
05/26/2005 The Dow Theory in a Globalized World
05/22/2005 Continue to Overweight U.S. Equities
05/19/2005 Don’t be Complacent: Global Liquidity Waning
05/15/2005 Market Round-Up and the NYSE Specialist Short Ratio
05/12/2005 Investor or Speculator?
05/08/2005 The Six-Month Stock Market Timing Strategy
05/05/2005 A Tradable Bottom in Place
05/01/2005 The U.S. Dollar is Going Up
04/28/2005 The Art of Risk Consulting
04/24/2005 The Importance of Brand Name Watching
04/21/2005 The 80/20 Principle
04/17/2005 A Turn in the Tide
04/14/2005 The Global Financial Stability Report
04/10/2005 Globalization and China, Once Again
04/07/2005 On Jesse Livermore And His Legacy
04/03/2005 The Pope's Passing and Implications
03/31/2005 It is Now Late in the Cycle!
03/27/2005 Rising Rates not a Given
03/24/2005 More Downside to Come?
03/20/2005 Downside Acceleration?
03/13/2005 This is Still Like Watching Paint Dry
03/06/2005 Richard Russell now Bullish
02/27/2005 What is the Dow Theory Saying?
02/21/2005 No Man's Land
02/17/2005 What Type of Investor are You?
02/13/2005 China - Basic Background and Current Issues, Part III
02/10/2005 One more chance, Mr. Market?
02/06/2005 China – Basic Background and Current Issues, Part II
01/30/2005 China – Basic Background and Current Issues
01/23/2005 Short Term Outlook for the Stock Market
01/17/2005 Watch Out - Bank Index Now Breaking Down
01/13/2005 Thoughts From the Author
01/09/2005 It is Still Too Early for a Top
12/26/2004 Liquidity Still Reigns
12/18/2004 The Top Calling Continues
12/12/2004 Housing Bubble?
12/08/2004 Short-Term Update
12/05/2004 A Word of Caution
11/28/2004 The Trouble with the VIX
11/25/2004 A Thanksgiving Message
11/21/2004 When Will the Top Come?
11/14/2004 Liquidity Overwhelms All Else
11/07/2004 The Cyclical Bull Continues
10/31/2004 Election Jitters
10/24/2004 25% Short Position in the DJIA Covered
10/18/2004 Earnings Calendar Update
10/17/2004 This is Still a Secular Bear Market, You Know
10/13/2004 Retail Sector Update
10/10/2004 Market Correction and the Beginning of Earnings Season
10/06/2004 Short-Term Update on Oil and the Dow Theory
10/03/2004 Market Still at Crossroads
09/29/2004 Short-Term Update on the Stock Market
09/26/2004 Correction in the Works
09/19/2004 The Bull Market Continues - Part II
09/12/2004 The Bull Market Continues
09/05/2004 Let the Games Begin!
08/29/2004 Three Important Questions for my Readers
08/22/2004 The Cyclical Bull Resumes
08/15/2004 Do or Die Time for the Market
08/08/2004 Short-Term Targets for the Market
08/01/2004 Bull Rally Confirmed
07/28/2004 A Buying Opportunity?
07/26/2004 A Bottom Looks Near
07/19/2004 The Author is Turning Bullish - with a Tidbit on Outsourcing
07/06/2004 A Lowry's 90% Downside Day Short-Term Update
06/24/2004 Aging Demographics The Other Super Secular Trend
06/09/2004 Getting Slightly Bearish - A Short-Term Update
06/07/2004 Retail Sector Watch
06/01/2004 Bank Sector Watch
05/24/2004 Indecisive But Still Bullish
05/11/2004 Lowry's Intermediate Sell Signal Triggered
05/10/2004 A Quick and Short-Term Update on Gold and Silver
04/12/2004 The Stock Market - A Game of Chance
03/23/2004 Correction or the Beginning of an Imminent Crash?
03/01/2004 No Bull Exhaustion Yet
01/18/2004 This Bull Swing Will Only Die in Exhaustion
01/11/2004 Earnings Season - Trigger for the Correction?
12/19/2003 How Hot is Hot?
12/07/2003 Quiet December?
11/16/2003 The Big Picture
10/19/2003 Trend Still Up?
09/28/2003 Bulls Overpowered - Can They Still Hang On?
09/21/2003 The Bulls Win - Or Have They?
09/16/2003 Stock Market - Where to from here?
05/05/2002 Stock market right on the edge
04/28/2002 The BREAKDOWN continues
04/24/2002 BREAKDOWN
04/21/2002 Large caps say breakdown, while mid caps and ...
04/17/2002 On the verge of breakdown - once again
04/15/2002 Dow Industrials support convincingly broken
04/10/2002 Just a bounce or a new uptrend?
04/07/2002 Market at key support levels
04/03/2002 Downtrend confirmed
03/31/2002 Israel - the trigger event?
03/27/2002 Fear Still Lacking
03/24/2002 Potential Top
03/20/2002 Distribution
03/17/2002 Consolidation or Distribution?
03/13/2002 Short-covering ends
03/10/2002 Have the bears capitulated yet?
03/06/2002 Market Significantly Overbought
03/03/2002 Mixed Signals
02/27/2002 Top likely?
02/24/2002 Upside limited in our opinion
02/20/2002 Stunning move - to the upside
02/18/2002 Trading range will be resolved - to the downside
02/13/2002 Tick-tok, tick-tok
02/11/2002 Model Portfolio Updated
02/10/2002 Short-covering Friday
02/06/2002 Major decline underway?
02/03/2002 Economy Recovery (Again)? Not.
01/31/2002 Short-Term Overbought
01/30/2002 Comments will be short and sweet tonight
01/27/2002 Recession over. ECRI says so!
01/20/2002 Earnings Week
01/16/2002