| Author |
'08 Q4 SHORT-TERM Sentiments Replies |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
 Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 3:52 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
Brother Frank leaves the year with some encouraging measures of discouragement--and a very interesting freudian slip:
http://chartingyourfutures.com/hotline.ram
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Wed Dec 17, 2008 9:41 am Post subject: |
|
|
Inv. Intel
| Quote: | Sentiment readings continue to be bullish for stocks and we look for higher stock market prices. The 2007 high for the bulls at 62% coincided with the October indexes highs and there were only 19.6% bears at that time. October 2008 saw almost the opposite readings, with the bulls at 22.2% and the bears up to 54.4%.
The spread between the bulls and bears is -20.4%, a very bullish reading. It was down just slightly from the previous week |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rubedo
Veteran Poster
Joined: 16 Sep 2007
Posts: 168
|
| Posted: Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:34 pm Post subject: |
|
|
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Russell-Survey-Fifty-Percent-Managers/story.aspx?guid=%7B428799B1-D653-481D-B286-E2C70940F78F%7D
Russell Survey: Fifty Percent of Managers Believe Equity Markets Will Rise 10 Percent or More in 2009
72% of managers believe U.S. equity markets undervalued - new high shatters previous survey results
Last update: 10:08 a.m. EST Dec. 16, 2008
TACOMA, Wash., Dec 16, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Professional money managers expect a considerable bounce from the current market lows, and they anticipate this swing to take place sometime next year, according to the latest Investment Manager Outlook, a quarterly survey of investment managers conducted by Russell Investments.
Exactly half of the managers surveyed expect the markets to rise at least 10 percent over current valuations, and another 27 percent anticipate the equity markets to rise somewhere up to 10 percent. In another demonstration of the managers' current level of optimism, 72 percent of managers surveyed believe the market is currently undervalued, a figure considerably higher than the 45 percent from last quarter and over double the 34 percent one year ago.
"Managers believe that the market has overshot the damage done by the ongoing recession and is now oversold and undervalued," said Erik Ristuben, Russell's chief investment officer, North America. "In their opinion, this market has been driven by panic and fear as much as by economic fundamentals."
A majority of managers expressed bullishness in eight of the survey's 13 asset classes, doubling the previous high of four asset classes during the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006. There were also record levels of bullishness in four separate asset classes - corporate bonds (60 percent), U.S. small cap value (54 percent), U.S. mid cap value (53 percent) and high-yield bonds (53 percent).
"Managers are retaining their faith in the financial system and have a positive outlook for 2009," said Ristuben. "While uncertainty remains, the vast majority believe that the markets will turn the corner next year." |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Dec 12, 2008 8:13 am Post subject: |
|
|
829 SP fib....I hope this means there's better news ahead today.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu Dec 11, 2008 7:42 am Post subject: |
|
|
CRB trying to make a stand on the back of Saudi output cuts. If successful this will help build a floor in the stocks.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11707
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2008 4:43 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Great call rffrydr!
Have a good weekend.
Henry |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2008 4:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Nothing is obvious--A reversal off a downside spike (325K with revisions and, maybe, strong hours) would complete this near-term scenario for Harry Schiller:
| Quote: | ....In other words, as we so often find, prior support has become resistance. The NDX topped out last week between its mid-October prior multiyear lows of 1196 and 1192. This divergence looked bad on Friday and looked much worse during Monday's collapse. Now on the downside, a couple of things are noteworthy.
On Monday, the relatively weak NDX came close to filling its Nov. 24 gap at 1085. That gap has now been partially filled, as the NDX bottomed at 1091 yesterday. That gap at 1085.57 would normally represent support, but now factor in the 0.618 retracement level of the rally off the Nov. 21 lows at 1085.50, and it strongly suggests this level is important support and represents an ideal buying area.
Maybe the NDX has already gotten close enough. But more than likely, we should be on the lookout for a return to this level to complete the retracement and fill that gap. |
http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/common/images/storyimages/1203_schiller_ndx_big.gif
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
diesel
Moderator
Joined: 05 Oct 2006
Posts: 793
Location: Australia & New Zealand
|
| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 12:33 am Post subject: |
|
|
Up/Down volume was 80 to 1 negative on the NYSE. That is one of the worse volume ratios you will ever ever see. 
_________________
All cats are gray in the dark. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 3:27 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Day after TGiving traditionally a good indicator: nice turn up and even the chit was up for the most part.
S. Bernstein said only half HF fold-ins done. I'll go with the bloomberg note. There is a perception for a spasm of retail BKs after jan. That's our wall of worry. 
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16909
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 9:44 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: | By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/24/2008 5:06 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
We finally got a rally instead of a whack in the final hour of trading Friday. And I don't think I saw anyone refer to it as a bottom. I'd say that is a bit of a change.
Another thing that's a bit of a change is that the equity put/call ratio has now had three days in a row of readings over 100%. The last time that occurred was at the August 2007 low. If I go all the way back to early 2003, I don't see another point in time where we had three days in a row. So you can see how rare this is. Readings over 100% in the equity put/call ratio tend to lead to a rally.
As I noted last week in Columnist Conversation, the American Association of Individual Investors showed its weekly survey to have a bullish percentage reading in the low 20s, which has typically marked points of rallies as well.
New lows were high but they were still fewer than we saw at the peak reading in mid-October. In fact they were about half what they were in October.
The McClellan Summation Index is at a higher low. Yes, it is still heading downward which is not good. But interestingly enough Nasdaq, which I use with volume instead of the advance-decline line, now needs only +600 million shares (that's up volume minus down volume) to head back up again. That is not a lot when you consider how low the market is.
What bothers me most is the fact that the 30-day moving average of the a/d line is not really oversold that much anymore. It managed to use up its window by having a market that went nowhere for a month (I know it feels as though it went down. But we were at 840 on the S&P in mid-October and we're at 800 now, so we're not talking a lot for month over month).
I suppose the bank index relative to the S&P is quite bothersome as well, but interestingly enough it still hasn't made a lower low. I supposed that shows you how much worse the banks were in July relative to the S&P vs. how they are now. In other words, the S&P is going down as well this time. |
Didn't she say not to look for capitulation bottoms? Greater fear on no followthrough and a fading away of bearishness would qualify, no?
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
