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2009 Holiday and Christmas Shopping Season |
HenryTo
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 Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:21 am Post subject: 2009 Holiday and Christmas Shopping Season |
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Retailing Today already weighing in. They expect a better-than-forecast holilday shopping season this year.
| Quote: | THE NEWS | ANALYTS EXPECT GLOOMY HOLIDAY
NEW YORK - The economy may not be in great shape, and deflation will pressure sales growth, but don't be surprised come January if this year's batch of holiday forecasts proves overly pessimistic.
The National Retail Federation predicts holiday sales during November and December will decline 1%, compared with an actual 3.4% decline last year. Retail Forward and Deloitte both contend holiday sales will be flat with prior-year sales, while the International Council of Shopping centers projects a 1% increase. The variances related primarily to differences to each group's forecast methodology, how they define the holiday selling season and the categories of merchandise included. However, each group relied on the same basic facts to come to their conclusions. There is simply less money sloshing around the economy because one out of 10 people is out of work, and those who still have jobs are reluctant to spend.
THE FIX Consumers see it differently
Analysts might be expecting a "doom's day" scenario, but chances are holiday sales won't be that bad. There are already signs that things are looking up. For example, when it comes to Thanksgiving, price deflation across a wide range of food categories and relatively cheap gas will make it less expensive to drive and get together with family and friends for an affordable feast. As for Christmas, deals will abound this year, as deflation is also a factor in popular such holiday categories as electronics and entertainment, with prices already falling for gaming consoles, digital cameras and various Apple products. |
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2009 Holiday and Christmas Shopping Season Replies |
rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2009 9:52 am Post subject: |
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This is the home stretch for retailers. It seems that gift cards are not as popular this year - so we could see a slight bump in revenues in 4Q vs. expectations as gift card sales are not recorded until they are redeemed.
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Shoppers return to malls, looking for deals
Deal-hunting shoppers return to malls as retailers launch post-Christmas shopping push
By Ashley M. Heher, AP Retail Writer , On Saturday December 26, 2009, 9:31 am EST
Shoppers across the country returned to malls Saturday, rummaging through thinly stocked shelves hunting for deals, next year's Christmas gifts and, for most, gifts for themselves.
Retailers made a push to woo gift-card-toting shoppers by slashing prices and offering doorbuster deals often reserved for the day after Thanksgiving.
Diana Mayfield, a 56-year-old business trainer from Jacksonville, Ill., managed to get two Christmas ornaments for $6, marked down from $28. She was out before dawn Saturday while visiting family in Maryland, scouring for next year's Christmas gifts.
"It's 60 percent off original, so that's pretty good," she said while eyeing a rack of sweaters. "I usually get my electronics the day after Thanksgiving, and we get clothes and paper goods the day after Christmas."
Knowing shoppers would likely spend less, merchants carefully managed inventory this Christmas. That meant on Dec. 26, some store shelves were practically empty.
Weather also could complicate things again this weekend, as a strong snow storm swept across portions of the nation's midsection and rain dampened the mid-Atlantic through New England.
"I think the big concern on all retailers' mind today will be the factor of the weather," said Tom Aiello, a spokesman for Sears and Kmart stores. "But it seems so far, customers have a good resolve to get out. ... You've got a lot of thrifty shopers out today looking for great values."
Donna Brown, a 52-year-old hair dresser from Seaford, Del., visited The Centre at Salisbury on Tuesday but returned Saturday to find few pairs of the $11.99 pajamas she'd been eyeing at J.C. Penney, which opened at 5 a.m.
"Now there's nothing," she said. "Everything's been picked over."
In New Jersey, Bernaden Demesyeux wasn't having much luck, either, despite arriving at her local mall just before 6:30.
"I was trying to find a dress coat for my husband, but didn't find anything," she said after more than an hour of shopping. "Everything is the same prices as before."
The week after Christmas is big business for retailers, making up 15 percent of sales last year, according research from ShopperTrak, which tracks sales and traffic at more than 50,000 outlets.
Thanks to a fluke in the calendar, merchants have a whole weekend to entice shoppers immediately after Christmas. That meant many stores were offering expanded hours Saturday and extra deals hoping crowds of gift-card-toting shoppers would snap up goods.
To help their cause, retailers sent a barrage of e-mails to faithful shoppers in the past day. "Wasn't under the tree? Get it now at the Apple Store," read one from Apple Inc.
Walmart was offering half off toys and Toys R Us touted buy one, get one half-off offers. At Sears, customers could find coats for 70 percent off while some jeans were $10. And Gap Inc.'s Old Navy brand was selling men's and women's jeans for $15 for the day and an e-mail encouraged shoppers to "redeem your gift cards today."
Gift card sales are not recorded until shoppers redeem them.
Retailers received a much-needed last-minute sales surge in the final days before Dec. 25, fueled by shoppers who delayed buying, waited for bigger discounts that never came or were slowed by last weekend's big East Coast snowstorm.
But now they're counting on the days after Christmas to perk up overall holiday sales in a season that looks like it's modestly better than last year's disaster.
The full holiday picture won't be known until merchants report December sales Jan. 7. But most expect merchants' fourth-quarter profits should be intact because they didn't press the panic button.
ShopperTrak is sticking to its prediction for a 1.6 percent gain, compared with a 5.9 percent drop a year ago.
The National Retail Federation expects that total retail sales will slip 1 percent, though some experts say that might be a bit too cautious. A year ago, they fell 3.4 percent by the trade group's calculations.
AP Retail Writers Anne D'Innocenzio in New York and Michelle Chapman contributed in Livingston, N.J., contributed to this report. Heher reported from Salisbury, Md. |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 10:07 am Post subject: |
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Things still looking bright for women's fashion for the next month or so, but as mentioned here, January to March should again be a tough period:
http://www.retailingtoday.com/story.aspx?id=124135§ion=ApparelAccessories&menuid=165
| Quote: | Industry experts told Reuters they characterize the trend as an uptick rather than a rebound, particularly since year-ago sales were drastically low.
"You have a consumer who spent 12 months paying down credit-card debt, increasing her saving rate and forgoing consumption. Everybody backed off," said Stifel Nicolaus analyst Richard Jaffe.
"Here we are 12 months later ... the bottom is in sight regarding our economy and Christmas is coming -- obviously a big motivator for selling," he said.
According to a recent survey from the National Retail Federation, 62% of women plan to buy clothing or clothing accessories this holiday season, bettering the 60.7% last year but still below the 62.4% seen in 2007, and the more robust 67.2% in 2006.
Despite the hints of a comeback in women's apparel sales, the big unknown is what happens in January, as investors warn that the demand outlook for 2010 is a big unknown. If stores fail to offer compelling spring merchandise in the winter months after the holidays, women could easily return to their "non-shopping mode," Walters said.
Walters expects the January-to-March period to be "pretty tough." |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2009 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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"CyberMonday" retail sales were excellent in every sense of the word. When depressed, Americans go shopping. This mantra apparently still stands:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2PMwbetENew
The ongoing deleveraging in US consumers' balance sheets will not reassert itself until after Christmas. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:34 am Post subject: |
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Marc Chandler
Black Friday: More Shoppers by Subdued Sales
11/30/2009 11:25 AM EST
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Black Friday, the traditional start to the holiday season, saw sales rise compared with 2008 but there was likely some disappointment amongst retailers. While more shoppers including online shoppers turned out this year (195 mln vs. 172 mln in 2008) the average shopper spent less ($343.31 vs. $372.57 in 2008) according the National Retail Federation. That caused total sales to rise just 0.5% y/y according to ShopperTrak although online sales up 11%. Some of the slow pickup in spending may reflect reduced prices with Wal-Mart and Best Buy offering low priced electronics including flat screen TVs and computers as well as reports of goods being sold in stores at below profit in order to attract customers. The NRF noted that shoppers were willing to purchase but at bargain prices. Shoppers may also be awaiting further price reductions. According to a Reuters pole, 71% of shoppers expected further price declines ahead of Christmas. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:01 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Brian Gilmartin
Best Buy's positive comments
11/27/2009 9:41 AM EST
Best Buy's CEO is out with some mildly bullish comments about traffic already this morning, giving us something other than Dubai to talk about.
You always hear a plethora of chatter about Black Friday and its implications for the holiday shopping season, but the biggest pre-Christmas shopping day is the Saturday prior to Christmas.
Best Buy won't report their November quarter until mid-December, but according to our spreadsheet, exiting last quarter ended 8/09, BBY was expected to grow revenues 8% this fiscal year ended Nov '09, while earnings were expected to be up just 1%. Margins were somewhat disappointing last quarter even though BBY continued to gain share. While the demise of Circuit City was an unambigious positive for BBY, the changed competitive landscape pits BBY against COST and WMT now, in consumer electronics.
We took a small position in BBY in early July, and as long as the stock holds the April highs of $41.45, we'll maintain the position. |
http://slickdeals.net/forums/showthread.php?t=1700913
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Nov 24, 2009 7:32 am Post subject: |
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Read somewhere there's a growing "exhaustion" with BF and concern about the cold and the "trampling." Effect seems to be to move more shopping online. Bing is in the catbird's seat on this one:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34105880/site/14081545
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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