Agricultural Commodities

Tifosi · Newbie Joined: 24 May 2005 Posts: 11

Dear Henry and all subsribers,

Puru Saxena has an interesting article today at www.safehaven.com/article-5000.htm (re: Cash is Trash) where he lists past Bull markets

'70's - sugar went up 45 times
'70's - oil went up 30 times
'70's - gold went up 24 times
'70's - silver went up 24 times
'80's - NIKKEI went up 8 times
'80's -'90's - NASDAQ went up 50 times
'80's -'90's - Dow went up 14 times

and notes that in the current ongoing bull-market in commodities, gold and silver have doubled in value, oil has increased six times, sugar has risen three-fold and stuff like corn, wheat and cotton haven't even moved.

I am wondering as to your perspective and those of others.

Also, any stocks to consider should corn, wheat and cotton be the next plays.

Finally, would we consider OIL, GOLD and Silver to be over-extended at these levels or is there further momentum, especially in light of the quick pullbacks?

Thanks.

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 2:46 pm Post subject:

July corn testing yearly lows; CRC5 down to Dec lows and there's a blip of a rollover in gasoline!
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:16 am Post subject:

Disinflationary forces march on:

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2012/04/15/business/20120415backdrop.html?ref=business#1
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 5:15 am Post subject:

This is the way commodities are supposed to work:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-12/milk-price-souring-as-record-profit-spurs-expansion-of-herds-commmodities.html
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:34 am Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2011 9:39 am Post subject:

As always with these things, unlike, say copper, which can be hoarded like gold (though at greater expense) ags have to be used. Coffee can be stored and stretch out the cycle, but not indefinitely....and as the old saying goes, there's an awful lot of coffee in brazil--and vietnam and indonesia and...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-14/global-coffee-market-prepares-for-record-espresso-bean-jolt-commodities.html

Interestingly, like oil, there is a split in quality types, Starbux filling that gap--which is declining in harvests. Who will win in the end? Good tell on commodity "will" and I will be watching.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 7:52 am Post subject:

Grains looking to bottom here as does, strangely, gasoline; foods pegged at lows, and gold......

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rffrydr · Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:57 am Post subject:

What? You mean you have to use the stuff? --You mean prices higher than achieved in the US Civil War cannot be sustained?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-01/record-cotton-crop-spurs-goldman-to-predict-declining-prices-commodities.html

The "market" is returning to cotton.
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:53 am Post subject:

Russia doing an major about face, outfitting ports in Soviet style effort to become number 1 exporter after drought-induced export block. Up to $70b committed. What happened to nanotech?
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:27 am Post subject:

Like to see another 4% off the euro before going seriously into Vilmorin. It's shopping time in europe. German ute RWE payout currently at 14%! EuroStoxx div futures contract more those more risk averse and of sufficient scale. Idea

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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 9:32 am Post subject:

Indian monsoon has already opened up govt export restrictions and, more significantly, filled the coffers with rice for the poor. Additionally this forced hoarding dynamic will not be repeated as next time govt will substitute cash payouts.

African panic buying is now over as Bloomie reports cargo rates out of France falling off significantly. Tales of low yields in wheat are the winter variety so eyes were already off the ball.

Looks like seeds have been planted for lower food prices where it matters--and in those same places, the flipside is growth. Very Happy

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue May 31, 2011 9:09 am Post subject:

Russia exporting wheat again. Doubt they'll pull that again. Things looking much better on the food front. Next up, farmland bubble.
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 7:00 pm Post subject:

Remember the "King Cotton" and the cotton economy that rivals our modern oil economy? And we're still at those Civil War prices...is china really that big?

http://mshistory.k12.ms.us/articles/291/cotton-and-the-civil-war
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2011 7:13 am Post subject:

Starting to thrash about, corn limit down. Remember this is a BIG and PERISHABLE commodity. And US is still the breadbasket to the world. The Dakota plantings however need to be lucky to come in full.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 8:30 am Post subject:

Holding on to that March peak:

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/agricultural-returns-financial-returns-food-price/4/25/2011/id/34104

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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 8:59 pm Post subject:

The obvious--by way of the not-so-obvious:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-18/china-crops-in-short-supply-as-fewer-farms-spur-food-futures.html

And these guys were a global corn exporter less than a decade ago.
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