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rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 7:40 am Post subject: |
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Never say you never knew an APPL short who made a buck.....closed out this morning with 4bux to show for it 
Will give it another shot on the i5 announcement proly.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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The old biddies take on Apple:
Apple: rewriting the rules
| Quote: | Are there any mushy bits at all in Apple? If there are, the company’s latest quarterly results, released on Tuesday, conceal them well. Take it one bite at a time:
● IPhone: revenues up 85 per cent from the year before. Was the latest upgrade a bit thin on new features? No sign that buyers cared much. Then there was the worry that carriers would tire of paying fat subsidies to Apple, leading to price pressure. But so far, iPhone prices – defying every known logic of gadgetry – are not falling one bit.
● IPad: revenues have now doubled, or better, for four quarters in a row. Another product upgrade critics found ho-hum that consumers have gobbled up. Prices fell about 8 per cent, to about $560. Units jumped 150 per cent. They’ll take that trade.
● Mac: a first quarter in some time that growth fell below 10 per cent. But again, the pricing story is astounding. Average Mac prices have been between $1,200 and $1,300 for years now. Apple has mastered offsetting the price-killing effects of Moore’s Law.
● Total revenues and margins: in sum, sales were up 59 per cent, which, for those of you following at home, is 15 percentage points better than what Facebook managed in the March quarter. Sales have just about tripled in three years. Net income has nearly quadrupled. Margins hit an all-time high in the quarter.
● Balance sheet: another $12.5bn in net cash materialises, making the promise to pay $10bn in annual dividends (a payout ratio of about 25 per cent on trailing earnings, and a yield of under 2 per cent at current price) seem tight-fisted.
The only worm in the Apple is the fact that growth like this cannot go on forever, and margins like this must be competed away. But what can you do about a company whose problems exist almost purely at a theoretical level – other than owning the shares? |
--FT
Non-bullish as I am, I don't think margins are where they are vulnerable. I've made the point many times about the Apple eco-system, hardware, software, music, movies and cloud, that defies a chinese takedown. And the iPad is priced to repress.
Ironically, the biggest problem for now is that shareholders are going to feel cheated on the dividend--which was only thrown to them to shut them up. Legal is another can of worms.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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| rffrydr wrote: |
....Next earnings can't help but disappoint and that'll leave three more months (and probably into Xmas rally) of equivocation while banks et. al. storm the wall of worry. ...
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Well they didn't. And they did! Revenues down on dec. and so too net income in face of a five-fold increase in phone sales to china. Cudda booked a technical profit today but we're short here for a purpose. Still...probably enough to keep things afloat for next earnings and wash as best bet. Still again, didn't have a snowball's chance before.
I continue to believe a summer SP rally will take wind out of Apple.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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"1650 in 2015," go man, go:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000081044
So, Master H., what do they tell 'em in biz school when the kids ask why all the money doesn't go to the best stock? That's only good business sense, right?
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 9:45 am Post subject: |
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Dividend good news? Significant culture shift here as this goes against everything "entrepreneurial" Silicon Vally stands for--not to mention that Jobs ruled against it about 20months ago.
Of course: 1) there's just too much money--now and growing. But no special divy and nothing special about this rate....so a "stealth dividend"? 2) So much of this, I think, served as veritable hammer of Thor for Job's fight against, yes, The GooG, (he swore he'd spend every cent here) and Samsung, again, like Ceasar, Hitler and all absolute dictators (
Buffett?), brought down from within, and govt., like European Union and its "heavy-handed" enforcement of competition. 3) Scully's revenge???? We have a bean-counter again--until proven otherwise. 4) There's nothing to buy.
Anyway, $10B into the economy with this big retail stock should be plus all the way 'round.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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Well that didn't take long to blow out my spread. 
On a day when it all seemed so right; it just wouldn't be right to ignore this little "hedge." Still have 'til june opex Risk 9 to make 11 but I'd settle for breakeve. I already I see I've overlooked one teeny-tiny little thing: HDMI out on new iPad. This is the single biggest deal killer on Slickdeals.net. Everyone wants to stream to their flat panels...and do it off 4G instead of all the sports bloat, daytime variabilty, and taxes on taxes of cable!
Apple says they've never seen anything like it. The Force be with you!
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:52 am Post subject: |
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Oh-oh... Always there, not in the shadows, long arm of govt.:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-08/apple-said-to-be-targeted-with-e-book-publishers-in-u-s-price-fixing-suit.html
Don't think many have noticed but Apple has been taking some social hits. Yesterday's roaring bull interview on the Bloomie got bogged down by these issues and this is biz-can-do-no-wrong Bloomberg. FoxCon and This American Life, distortion of reading NY Times, and how many jobs DO you provided anyway. This would all be brushed aside on your usual energy or industrial--but Apple is the good shepherd by which all goodness is led at the nose.
The case for ebook fixing obviously belongs with Amazon--as they tried to impose the Apple equiv. of 99c song. Apple, on the other hand, cozied up to Publishing. Isn't it just obvious that an e-book should be CHEAPER?! They asked for it.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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....I see somebody else has caught my disease (he's staying on the sidelines rather than tipping onto the tracks  )
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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That's why God made options--and in the case of Apple, options spreads. Surely looked poorly today on iPad 3 release and up market though 
Next earnings can't help but disappoint and that'll leave three more months (and probably into Xmas rally) of equivocation while banks et. al. storm the wall of worry.
If they drop a dividend it's all moot. I don't think that'll happen (less maybe a one-timer of modest dimension). My friends who are long Apple are there for SAFETY.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Time to go long the US median house and short APPL? Maybe not just yet but probably within the next 12 to 18 months. I think momentum will carry APPL to over $600 and maybe $700 a share. |
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