Are we running out of oil?

[nodoodahs]

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/bg/bg159/

I especially enjoyed the critique of Hubbert's Peak. Partial quote below:

In March 1956, M. King Hubbert, a research scientist for Shell Oil, predicted that oil production from the 48 contiguous United States would peak between 1965 and 1970. Hubbert’s prediction was initially called “utterly ridiculous.” But when U.S. oil production peaked in 1970, he became an instant celebrity and living legend.

"Environmentalists now tie their predictions of declining energy supplies to M. King Hubbert's model of energy production -- which has been consistently inaccurate."

Hubbert based his estimate on a mathematical model that assumes the production of a resource follows a bell-shaped curve — one that rises rapidly to a peak and declines just as quickly. In the case of petroleum, the model requires an accurate estimate of the size of the total oil endowment. His best estimate of the size of petroleum resources in the lower 48 states was 150 billion barrels. His high estimate, which he considered an exaggeration, was 200 billion barrels.

Based on these numbers, Hubbert produced two curves showing a “best” estimate of U.S. oil production and a “high” estimate. The claimed accuracy of Hubbert’s predictions are largely based on the upper curve — his absolute upper limit.

Hubbert set the absolute upper limit for peak U.S. oil production at roughly 3 billion barrels a year, and his best or lower estimate of peak future U.S. crude oil production was closer to 2.5 billion barrels.
As early as 1970, actual U.S. crude oil production exceeded Hubbert’s upper limit by 13 percent.

By the year 2000, actual U.S. oil production from the lower 48 states was 2.5 times higher than Hubbert’s 1956 “best” prediction.
Production in the 48 contiguous states peaked, but at much higher levels than Hubbert predicted. From about 1975 through 1995, Hubbert’s upper curve was a fairly good match to actual U.S. production data. But in recent years, U.S. crude oil production has been consistently higher than Hubbert considered possible.

"U.S. oil production has been higher than Hubbert thought possile."

Hubbert’s 1980 prediction of U.S. oil production, his last, was substantially less accurate than his 1956 “high” estimate. In the year 2000, actual U.S. oil production from the lower 48 states was 1.7 times higher than his 1980 revised prediction.

In light of this, it is strange that Hubbert’s predictions have been characterized as remarkably successful. While production in the United States is declining, as Hubbert predicted, it is doing so at a much slower rate. Furthermore, lower production does not necessarily indicate the looming exhaustion of U.S. oil resources. It shows instead that at current prices and with current technology, less of the remaining petroleum is economically recoverable.

Last sentence reads to me "why produce when it's cheaper to import," especially considering the historic growth of oil production worldwide, which continued past when the lower 48's production declined.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.