Australia Caught in the Headlights

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 8:30 am Post subject:

Rates go up without rates moving. It's only property--but property is Australia's new game.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aysKVTO8i66o&refer=home
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject:

One of our big aussie infrastructure plays down 40%:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=626403746&play=1
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

dknoester

A lengthy but infomative read on the financial situation 'down under' by John Needham.

It is in 2 parts with a 3rd instalment in the offing.

Part 1: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/danielcode/2008/0116.html

Part 2: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/danielcode/2008/0129.html

DK

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:16 am Post subject:

Built on financial trepidation! All extremes become their opposite. This Macquarie Group CEO and his carnival barking has really shaken my image of those rugged individualists down under. Great series.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2008 7:56 pm Post subject:

Australian manufacturing sector shrinks for the first time in two years. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of Australia is contemplating of raising rates. We are going to be in a global slowdown, all right:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aR9yhfmd9Yp4&refer=home

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 7:54 pm Post subject:

So much for the concept of "decoupling." Australian mortgages now getting downgraded on the heels of the troubles in the U.S. mortgage industry. When commodity prices start heading down, these economies could easily come crashing down:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiAE.vEzV_aY&refer=home

diesel · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject:

Yep, thats why I have moved most of my liquid net worth out of Australia and NZ. The rest in fully hedged. The problem is where is a safe place to park capital in this market? Lets hope MT has it right again..

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 8:38 pm Post subject:

Diesel,

I think your bullish view on the U.S. Dollar (against Euro, Pound, AUD, CAD, etc) is sound for 2008 - although I am still looking for continued weakness going into the March 18th Fed meeting. By the way, did you get a chance to buy some Japanese equities last week? Cool

Best regards,

Henry

diesel · Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 9:46 pm Post subject:

Hi Henry,

I agree we could see some more weakness in the Dollar. I think we could see 1.55 on the Euro and 0.93 and 0.81 on the Aussie and NZD respectively. If we reach these targets I will increase my positions.

As for the Japs I picked up some NMR for around $13.40 and bought some JOF between $8.10 and $8.60. They are both doing well. Cool

Also will probably close out the last of the Sp500 futures I bought back at 1290 soon to keep leverage down.

Thanks.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject:

BHP, the world's largest mining company, fell 8.3 percent to A$36.38, the most since Oct. 23, 1987. The company reported a 2.4 percent decline in first-half net income, its first profit drop in more than five years, as production costs soared.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:25 am Post subject:

The beauty of this crunch is it keeps on crunching:

http://registration.ft.com/registration/barrier?location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F6929508a-d90d-11dc-8b22-0000779fd2ac.html&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fftalphaville.ft.com%2F
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 8:33 am Post subject:

Aussie exports getting nervous:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aN2k8KuWEkjI&refer=australia
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:51 am Post subject:

Australian dollar actually dropped after the latest rate hike:

http://business.theage.com.au/reserve-bank-lifts-interest-rates/20080304-1wrk.html

You know have: retail sales growth at 0%, a severely overvalued housing market, and an economy that is overly dependent on the commodity boom. My guess is that it is all downhill from here for the AUD.

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 6:45 am Post subject:

Crikey's List:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/03/06/11399/credit-crunch-victims-down-under-crikeys-list/
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

diesel · Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 1:51 am Post subject:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23348414-643,00.html

Things dont look so flash down under anymore. Housing and stocks are tanking. AUD$ to follow? The RBA should be looking to ease here not stay tight with monetary policy.