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Australia Caught in the Headlights Replies |
rffrydr
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Sat May 09, 2009 7:18 am Post subject: |
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Australia surprises with DROP in unemployment and central bank rumblings of tightening. The China commodity-commodity currency may have brought them through the cycle.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXA&p=DAILY&b=5&g=0&id=p93093279832
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed May 06, 2009 10:27 am Post subject: |
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My best of all possible worst scenarios came to past, the carry with the yen evaporated, and the best (worst) the aussie could do was 63 cents. Now comfortably above 75 cents I will not challenge this stalwart again:
Australian retail sales
Published: May 6 2009 09:11 | Last updated: May 6 2009 15:47
| Quote: | Hurrah! Fiscal stimulus works – at least Down Under. Retail sales rose 2.2 per cent in March, buoyed by government handouts, more than compensating for the 2 per cent fall in February. Give the people money, it seems, and they will spend. That theory has not worked elsewhere. Shoppers across the globe are far more fragile; even in China, where government largesse is unstinting and official retail statistics obediently strong, surveys of the biggest shops paint a more subdued picture. Nominal sales at the top 10 Chinese retailers shrank almost 7.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to Access Asia, a research company specialising in the sector.
Australians are clearly something of a special case. Consumers in the lucky country really have lucked out recently: 450 basis points of interest rate cuts in the past eight months, cheaper petrol, lower taxes and money from the government as part of its plan to pump-prime the economy. As a result, household disposable income was up 14 per cent in nominal terms, or 10 per cent in real terms, over the year to the fourth quarter of 2008.
So much for the good news. Australia lags the UK and US economic cycle so worse is to come. Rising unemployment, at 5.7 per cent in March, will tame shoppers’ spirits. Wealth destruction – household net worth is down 10 per cent, the largest annual decline in several decades – will also take a toll. Consumers are squirreling away more money – 8.5 per cent of disposable income in the fourth quarter, up from zero a year ago and negative rates before that. Their caution is not shared by the central bank which this week opted to leave rates on hold on the basis that “much of the effect (of monetary easing) is yet to be observed”. Perhaps. But recent drops in house prices and employment suggest some uglier changes are yet to be observed too. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 2:29 pm Post subject: |
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Looks like parity is gonna remain what it is...a fantasy.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:55 pm Post subject: |
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Australia now also taking aim at short-sellers:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121643420922567403.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
| Quote: | The U.S. isn't the only country seeking to rein in short-selling during volatile times. Australia, too, is trying to impose tighter regulations on the practice, which has been blamed for exacerbating a selloff on the country's stock market.
Lawmakers in Australia are proposing rules that would require short sellers to disclose more about their positions in order to prevent market manipulation. The legislation is part of an effort to overhaul the country's financial regulation and comes amid a severe downturn in Australian shares that has pushed the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index down 24% this year. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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Sean Judd
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: |
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hello from oz
on the AUD not sure if any of you are technically oriented however fib targets sit just over parity and the 50% level from pre issue was tested a couple of nights ago.
Most likely scenario is a bit of consolidation before a final move higher (at this stage)
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diesel
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:17 am Post subject: |
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Parity beckons just like you said rffrydr. 
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