Bank Credit Analyst on Fed Funds Rate

HenryTo

Says that based on the Fed Beige Book, the Fed will most probably stay with the position that current policies remain "accomodative" and that they most likely will not signal a pause in tightening anytime soon:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20050617.GIF

Dubious · Senior Poster Joined: 26 Mar 2005 Posts: 142

Sorry. I forgot the link.

You have to create an account to read the article.

My bad. Sad

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2005 11:16 pm Post subject: Bill Gross

Link to said article on marketwatch.com:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=morenews&guid=%7BB1F7A7B3%2D52EC%2D46DB%2D8285%2D87F42572E767%7D

Dubious · Senior Poster Joined: 26 Mar 2005 Posts: 142

They would have to Mr Gross believes the 10 year is going to 3. Which is the overnight rate now. Shocked

dash · Veteran Poster Joined: 12 Apr 2005 Posts: 488

Bill Gross was just on the tape saying he thinks the Fed will cut rates by year-end. PIMCO clearly are of the opinion the economy will lose steam very quickly.

collies_99 · Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2005 11:29 am Post subject: DOW and NDX Euro ratio.

It apear to me that the strengthening USD, favorable US intrest rate in comparison to its EU & JY counterpart will continued to pull foreign investors back in the US debt and equity markets.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx:$XEU,uu[w,a]waoaynay[df][pb5!b10!f][iLa12,26,9!Lb14]&pref=G

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX:$XJY,uu[w,a]waoaynay[df][pb5!b10!f][iLa12,26,9!Lb14]&pref=G

With the outperformance of the SPX in both currencies and having both broken resitance to the up-side from a lengthy consolidation area, will likely result in more foreign players chasing that elusive higher gain in the US. This will likely result in a self re-inforcing scenario as the market slowly grind higher in other currecy terms as long as the USD keeps on rising, thanks in part to uncle AL. With more hikes yet to come?

Could a rising tide in US dollar currency hedge, be the main driving force going into 2005 that will propel the US equity markets to higher levels? Is this scenario somewhat akin to the 1195-2001 USDX rise at which the markets went to nose bleed levels?

Eventhough the US economic fundamental is anemic, it is not breaking down, just slow growth. Higher US dollar will keep consumer consuming and for the most part happier. Higher housing prices here we come.

Food for thought.

Cheers and good luck all.