Bank Credit Analyst: Reduce Equity Exposure

[HenryTo]

The BCA is reduce their equity exposure across the board - but is maintaining a zero percent equity weighting in the U.S. - unchanged from last month. Be very careful out there. It is late in the cycle.

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20050408.GIF

[HenryTo]

Agree that the market is definitely ready for a bounce here but I really do not see any substantial rally that is playable on the long side. The DJIA can go up 300 points here but half of the stocks on the NYSE can still fall. Breadth has been horrible - volume as well especially during this time of the year.

Bank Index is still above support at 95 but once the 95 is broken (especially after the bounce that we have had), the more intermediate term downtrend will resume.

I still do not recommend buying AIG here no matter what the bulls say. It is still too early in the game - and the damage has been done as well. When all is said and done, AIG is probably just an average insurance company with average margins.

I like FNM more since they do have an inherent advantage but if Congress really does pass a law limiting portfolio sizes, then it is all over for the investor. Note that Jim Rogers still has a $5 target on FNM the last time I checked,

[Gizmo]

Bearish rising wedge colliding with Jan. downtrend line. Stepping back, the overall pattern looks like a bleed down market, lot's of volatility but no big down soon. A transition time I believe with 2006 to have the ugly down into a possible cycle low 10/06

http://www.msnusers.com/_Secure/0PwCXAsASLE48kqmlVzDhoe14CbFVEVe0UB0SZT7rBDlZ0Yo2GV6MuFQSZw8S0L*K82ATZR4eNNVjwVuns*jdYlvd0KghKPH6/mac6.bmp?dc=4675517564911296643
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Gizmo

[Gizmo]

Beware an April rally!
April tends to be a month of seasonal strength. I do not recommend playing this short term rally from the long side but using this strength to reduce positions and to initiate some short sales.

Dr. Marc Faber... see Market comments section

http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/gbdreport/indexgbdreport.htm
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Gizmo