Bank Index

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2005 3:24 pm Post subject: Bank Index

The Philadelphia Bank Index closed down 1.6% today - failing to burst through the resistance line that we discussed in last weekend's commentary.

My guess is that financial stocks will begin to underperform again going forward - suggesting a further decline in global liquidity.

Best,

Henry

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:47 am Post subject:

I love to buy 2 deviations, three I fear. Worked out Wed--but three usually means four...some kind of structural shift see crude. [edit] rice went 15 deviations. But there are markets and then there are markets.

My 20 BAC puts only paid 2.40...knives don't bounce. Moral: watch your metaphors as closely as your stocks.
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diesel · Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 5:16 am Post subject:

$BKX now 3 standard deviations under the 200 day moving average. Shocked

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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject:

The "write-up" recovery has already begun--sortof.

Banks will be able to Mark-to-Market their debt in terms of carry.
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 6:25 pm Post subject:

That other bull-market: First under-performance in banks since the 80's

https://research.mfglobal.com/Dailyres/Financial/Equities/stocks_files/image008.gif
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject:

Bearish brother Frank offers some good charts breaking up the banks--many, ironically, showing approaching longer-term support. And then there's the warts.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/barbera/2008/0701.html

The double touch on the lower BB on the unweighted market shows some promise as well.
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gregf · Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 9:51 am Post subject:

KRE is hanging in there as well,...

Suomodo · Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2008 9:04 am Post subject:

BKX so far holding above massive support of 60 +0.4% as I am writing this... 5 more hours and we have fresh money coming next week Smile

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:15 pm Post subject:

Fighting the tide?
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 4:54 pm Post subject:

Dilution capitulation? --hard to measure when you are creating nothing out of something. Long bank debt and short equity is a trade that keeps getting bigger.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=atxdvigExnb4&refer=news
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Suomodo · Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:02 am Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 3:52 pm Post subject:

There just so much more of it than there was a while ago. Dilution and oversold indicators don't mix.

There is some chatter that US financials are being pressured into selling overseas assets and repatriating into dollars. I hope that's not all there is behind this comeback. Quid pro quo with Saudis? That would be a new kind of G8.
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Suomodo · Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 3:13 pm Post subject:

BKX now most oversold in last 25 years or so...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EBKX#symbol=%5EBKX;range=my

If Banks rebound 25% to a BKX of app 85 (and that is just a technical rebound) they lift SPX alone by 4% even if all other stocks stay where they are..

I think 50 SPX points banks and 70 the rest gives us so +120 or 1450, + breaking the stop losses at 1440 thats +30 Smile

well 1470 is not unrealistic within month should the banks really rebound ...

Suomodo · Posted: Thu Jun 05, 2008 12:28 am Post subject:

BKX breaking the support at 75.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EBKX

Where goes the piggie there goes the tail?

Or panic sell-off posed for a big rebound lifting SPX?

I still wait a couple of days but I have a finger on the trigger to go long should we fall under DJIA 12100 and short term sentiment oversold.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 11:04 am Post subject:

The current financials retracement captured in the sentiment here:

http://www.smartmoney.com/barrons/index.cfm?story=20080530-where-financial-crisis-is-headed-next&pgnum=1

I'm in the BSC "lamb-to-the-gods" camp; yet, note the closet bullishness. Some of the metrics you might want to use to buy..
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TRS · Veteran Poster Joined: 11 Aug 2005 Posts: 180

The ETF, XLF can be traded. It mirrors the BKX index. Also options available.

Notice the high volume on the XLF today. RSI and MACD tracking lower.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=XLF