Bank of Australia Hikes Rates

[rffrydr]

Bummer on the metals. Record leveraged Aussie "selling on fact."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Qantas takeoever flops. 45% of float held by Hedge Funds:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/092841b4-fd49-11db-8d62-000b5df10621.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Hey, Arco:

Good call on the aussie. Used to the 500pts down Nikkei that barely touched this spread to get out little better than flat. Will be looking at your triangle picking my next point down the line.

Captial MEETS Labor in PE deal:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Qantas-takeover-faces-more-challenges/2007/03/20/1174152978654.html

Brtian's Salisbury Union head asked where labor stood inthe PE order of priorities responded that there "was no order." Prioties are "profit, profit, profit..." How we've strayed from the Blackstone mantra, "bland companies doing bland business."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Upthrust out of distribution: looks to follow CRB by my call. We won't see 80 until we see 2 GBP.

As noted before, Telstra and it's 7+ dividend has been driving this last phase, attracting Yen like flies. Like all bubbles hOw much more this "investment" is than meets the eye.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20895888-643,00.html

[HenryTo]

Arco,

Very nice work. Like rffrydr said, we got your target and then some. Do you have any new price targets now?

It now looks like the Reserve Bank of Australia may be done for awhile. GDP growth for the third quarter of 2006 came in lower-than-expected. Inflation should calm down next year as the economy slows and as the crop yields recover next year:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aOwQZhiFp.X4

Best,

Henry

[rffrydr]

We got your target and then some. Any more. Last time the postiioning was this imabalnceed was once in ten years, March 05. A mared turn followed then. That it was last year shouldn't be a surprise, I gueess. 7 straight weeks with this heavy leaning on the buy side. On a measured move this is my target. Anything more, gotta bail.

Ford unsecured bonds, unlike qantas, registered barely a blip on the scale--in contrast to qantas.

[rffrydr]

Here's the story:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aQLzG14JJag4&refer=bond

But it's the ISSUE that prompted my tentative short of BCA a few weeks back, and outright short on monday....and immediate bearish market outlook. --though the sharp moves are usually the wrong moves.

It's been mentioned here earlier in the year the MA discussions here on the board. And more generally:

http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=145&highlight=buyouts+debt+credit

http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=220&highlight=buyouts+debt+credit

The snake may be biting its own tail.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Quantas default spreads worst of the worst today. One of the big acquistion stories pushing the AD recently.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[arco]

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Hello rffrydr

Yes, only 23 pips from my target suggested early October, and it looks like it could still do a bit more.

regards - arco

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[rffrydr]

And the Technicals have it!

Carry push came not from the yen but the euro--as no-one believes, and some officials state outright, that Yen is going to attract much PBOC diversification. Despite Russia going in 2 weeks back.

It's trading, i think though, is mostly push from strength in the crosses. Tends to balance over a week or so. Got stopped out on half friday, we'll see on the other half. So I do have a biased position on this one.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[arco]

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Hello rffrydr

[rffrydr]

Assuming it's even going down yet--I dunno, probably higher than I expect given a long-term bullish commodity outlook and slowwwwly recovering Japan. The measure of the head? Somewhere in your cloud of support. Just hope I know it when when I see it.

How much of the auto-slowdown do you attribute to just unattractive models vs. consumer slowdown?

[arco]

Hello rffrydr

Wheres do you see your approx target on the short ?

regards - arco

[rffrydr]

That's not a symetrical triangle--that's a head-and-shoulders top--I hope.

Been small short since 76.50 in Sept and doubled up on the rate hike last week. The sell-on-fact seems to be working (unlike the GBP which lasted only a day). Record COT longs but holding well in face of yesterday's metals puke. Probably related to same PBOC news working the greenback.

Despite this great commodities run it interesting to see both the Aussie (earlier) and the Kiwi beset by a negative balance of trade. If the rally continues it will be driven by japanese newfound appetite for risk, I think. Setting stop on half at last week's highs.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[arco]

Hello Henry

I made a suggestion on 5th Oct to buy Aud.Usd circa .7450

This has proved to be a very nice trade, but we havent quite reached the target I set.



Looking at the longer term chart there is always the possibility of the Symmetrical Triangle following through and taking this higher.



Interested to hear your views regarding this cross in the future.

Regards - arco

[HenryTo]

Western Australia pulling the whole nation from an economic standpoint (+14% in GDP growth). The two most populous (and "new economy") states of New South Wales and Victoria are set to tip to recession at any time now:

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1786043.htm

Labor in countries such as Australia is nowhere near as flexible as the U.S. or as some folks think. My guess is that this was the last rate hike.