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BANKS: After the Fall |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:13 pm Post subject: BANKS: After the Fall |
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Last edited by rffrydr on Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:28 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 4:16 pm Post subject: |
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Was buying JPM last summer with puts at higher prices....good one not to love. Happy I'm out; sad I have to agree with the celebrity:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47450314
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 7:14 pm Post subject: |
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You can't hang on the cross of the Volcker Rule and then chit out this, Jamie. Not when you're all that is right with the industry. The market could easily run with this "ambiguity" across the industry--but I bet they won't:
| Quote: | JPM...Things to Consider....
By Roger Arnold | May 10, 2012 | 7:14 PM EDT
The timing of JPM's call could not have come at a worse time for the
financial industry. And the lack of specifics supplied on the call
already has investors worried.
JPM and employees of many other financial firms have supplied big
backing for Romney in the hopes that he would rescind Dodd-Frank.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/contrib.php?id=N00000286
The Volcker Rule section of Dodd-Frank, which limits banks ability to
trade on their own behalf, is due to go into effect on July 21st of
this year and then be phased in over 2 years. So, this is going to be
big political football and in the media through the election season
this fall.
When Morgan and Chase were allowed to combine as part of the immediate
post Glass-Steagall era in 2000 they were already the largest players
in the derivatives markets and many believed then they should not have
been allowed to combine regardless of the other cross financial
markets mergers that were going on; most notably Citibank and
Travelers insurance.
There are going to be discussions about the recent MF Global collapse
after using client funds to speculate on European sovereign debt. And
MF Global clients are still pushing regulators for answers as to JP
Morgan's participation and liability in the MF Global debacle.
And there will be comparisons going back to the collapse of Long Term
Capital Management in 1998 and the concerns about global contagion
that resulted; which also prompted Warren Buffet to refer to
derivatives as weapons of mass destruction.
This story isn't going away anytime soon. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:49 am Post subject: |
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Keep that train a rollin'--we may finally be seeing an investment bank as an investment class....for SHAREHOLDERS.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:08 am Post subject: |
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Credit Suisse to potentially cut 25% of its investment banking workforce.
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Credit Suisse could cut 5,000 jobs: paper
ZURICH (Reuters) - Swiss bank Credit Suisse (VTX:CSGN.VX - News) could announce the loss of up to 5,000 jobs in its investment banking business at its forthcoming first-quarter results, a Swiss newspaper reported on Sunday.
Citing an estimate from a member of senior management, the Sonntag newspaper said the bank could cut around 5,000 positions. The investment bank is "simply completely oversized", the person was quoted as saying.
The bank is due to report first-quarter results on April 25.
Credit Suisse ended 2011 with 20,900 investment bankers, 200 more than at the beginning of the year. Staff count at the whole bank was largely stable even after two rounds of cuts eliminated 7 percent of the bank's overall workforce, or 3,500 jobs.
The Zurich-based bank has faced increased shareholder criticism about the size and the cost of its investment bank, raising pressure on Chief Executive Brady Dougan for cutbacks.
A spokeswoman for the bank did not want to comment or confirm the report. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 8:52 am Post subject: |
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Corporate cash hoards greasing the wheels now:
Siemens makes headway as banks retreat
| Quote: | When Siemens’ management set up a bank in late 2010, the endeavour was met with internal scepticism.
Supervisory board members grilled management over why an industrial group renowned for its engineering prowess should be engaged in banking, a profession seldom loved and often derided in Germany’s nuts and bolts business world.
But its move to become a shadow bank was vindicated at the height of the eurozone debt crisis less than a year later, when the engineering group – afraid to lose cash it had deposited with other banks – used its freshly acquired banking licence to shelter up to €6bn at the European Central Bank.
While the ability to park money at the ECB is unusual for an industrial company, it is only a byproduct of Siemens’ banking strategy.
For Europe’s largest industrial conglomerate by sales, profits and market valuation, its financing capability is mostly a sales support tool. And its main reason for expanding its longstanding financing arm into the lending business is that banks are moving out of it.
Roland Chalons-Browne, chief executive of Siemens’ financial services unit, says: “Quite a few house banks have become more reluctant to provide credit. There has been a general withdrawal of loans and this has been one of the main drivers for our business.”
He said this holds true not only for loans to small and medium-sized businesses but also for project financing, where a lot of banks have retrenched, given regulatory pressure to hold more equity capital against risky credit.
“The need for a large supplier such as Siemens to support the sales side with financing has increased significantly,” says Mr Chalons-Browne.
In the past five years – when most banks have been shrinking – Siemens Financial Services expanded its total assets by two-thirds to €14.6bn last year.
The group increased its staff size by half to 2,600 employees and widened its presence in emerging markets such as China, India and Russia.
Mr Chalons-Browne says that public infrastructure projects are another area where Siemens’ financing capabilities have become crucial in the financial crisis, as governments increasingly push project risks on to private players.
One example for this is the UK government’s £1.6bn order for trains for the cross-London Thameslink route, where Siemens’ involvement in the financing of 1,200 trains and two depots was one of the main reasons for being awarded the contract.
Mr Chalons-Browne says that Siemens often acts as an anchor lender, prompting other banks to participate as they presume that the engineering group is better placed to judge the technological risks of a project.
While Siemens is keen to publicly emphasise its focus on customer financing, it has also nurtured the other opportunities that a banking licence gives it.
It has offered term deposits such as three- and six-month money and risk management advice to institutional and corporate investors.
After parking some of its excess cash at the ECB’s one week and other short-term deposits, the group is now considering whether to tap the central bank’s low-cost borrowing facilities. |
--FT
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 9:04 am Post subject: |
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Unicredit defies the bears and floats dividend prospects:
| Quote: | ...Chief Executive Federico Ghizzoni held out the prospect of a divided on 2012 results. As expected, the bank won't pay a dividend for 2011.
Speaking at a news conference following the results, Mr. Ghizzoni said he was hopeful that business in the bank's home market would perform relatively well in the first quarter, which ends on Saturday. But he refrained from giving any forecast for the year, citing uncertainties about the Italian economy, which is in recession.
Net profit for the quarter was €114 million, below the €321 million for the same period a year earlier but higher than the €70 million forecast by analysts. Revenue fell 5.9% to €6.09 billion. |
--wsj
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:53 am Post subject: |
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Bearish to a fault:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46869334
J. Dimon, "7% T1 equity is unamerican."
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:23 am Post subject: |
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The american pie gets bigger:
| Quote: | ....Deutsche Bank has ditched its American bank holding company to avoid new regulations that would have forced it to pour billions of dollars of additional capital into the US.
Under the restructuring disclosed in its annual report this week, Germany’s biggest bank has followed the lead of Barclays by shifting assets once held in its American bank holding company into a new vehicle.... |
--FT
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:49 am Post subject: |
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Good ol' Jamie chomping at the bit:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-14/jpmorgan-s-premature-disclosure-surprises-investors-irks-fed.html
What this does, besides finally starting to pay us, is show some backbone. Capital is rightfully taking back what is theirs. That attitude can go a long way--or it can be quashed by the next "assessment."
I covered this morning: worst 18% I ever made 
Thats the problem with steady, strong stocks and the power of options to get in "on the cheap." Over half this monster buyback will go to bonuses and the dividend is no more than the stock, solid. Rolling this position into Ally PFDs or bonds if we get spike down today.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:17 am Post subject: |
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I'm not sure where this "60%" payout ratio was realized in 2011 but certainly not in the big banks we like to quote. I was looking for this last year before euroeggodon struck. As 2/3 total return came from this in the good times, dividend payout are necessary to a new leg up in the market:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-12/wells-fargo-poised-to-lead-payouts-higher-after-fed-tests.html
Shorts will then pay a price and some nice big carrots will draw eyes away from the stick in the stick, in this space. As this is an election year prepare to be disappointed.
And, yes, I thought BoA would been in the pack by now 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:03 am Post subject: |
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| rffrydr wrote: |
At payouts exceeding 90% of income the mountain will move. At the price of these behemoths they don't need revenue growth (which of course they will achieve with positive GDP stats), just revenues--and continued write-ups. Entering a new year of de-litigation combined with dividend flows as early as next quarter (but probably summer) will go a long way towards calming fears here. Already business is being thrown this direction from European banks and already C&I loan book building across industry.
You don't have to be a raving bull to buy these. |
--Nov 29
And so it is:
| Quote: | ....Take investment banking. Even though trading revenue at Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley shrank in the fourth quarter of 2011, the US firms hung on to the lion’s share in a group that also includes Europe’s main contenders Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and UBS. The US houses took two-thirds of those revenues, more than in 2010, Bloomberg notes. But foreign bank success is not limited to investment banking – it is the mundane stuff too. Mining houses have noted that US and Japanese banks are supplanting their European (mostly French) trade financiers. Japan’s banks, after two decades of timidity, are after yield. The $7.3bn purchase by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial and Sumitomo Corp of RBS Aviation Capital typifies a resurgence that has also included buying European project finance books. Meanwhile, Canadian banks, trading on 1.9 times book, are also looking for deals.
It looks eerily as if Europe’s micro-regulated, heavily-capitalised, ringfenced, clipped-wing, increasingly Balkanised banking sector is headed for its own lost decade. |
The (compounded) short-covering is just the first leg for these. If we could just beat back one, one AG assault we'll be on our way. I'm raising my expectations to 1.5X book and will continue to sell straddles against position to try and get more long (at the risk of getting far less long). Dividends will be hesitant--but irony almost demands that they come last.
PS Moynihan took his bonus in stock.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:24 am Post subject: |
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My god, a buy rec. via Alphaville:
| Quote: | At 7.0X 2012E earnings, 0.8 times end-2011E SHF, and a 3.7% yield, European banking valuations look cautious. We would nonetheless be selective in raising sector exposure, seeing more fundamental risk-reward valuation distortion in
several higher quality names than in the heavily battered ones; these latter may offer good trade-in trade-out opportunities in coming weeks. We selectively raised ratings in December 2011 in Europe and the US, and we reiterate our
recent and earlier Buy ratings. Key challenges in 2012 are the need for further cost-cutting – including among our Buy-rated names – and the sporadic recovery in industry volumes.
BE
BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank (target prices raised 5-6% on both names) are our preferred bank names for direct Euro-zone exposure, and of the two BNP may offer more near-term price upside. Credit Suisse and Barclays remain our preferred names for more defensive exposure to Europe . |
Think this belongs on the Europe board? --Think again 
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