BCA on Commodities

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:10 am Post subject: BCA on Commodities

Several headwinds in the short-run but still long-term, structurally bullish on commodities:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20070806.GIF

Odysseus · Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject:

At the end of the article, Evans-Pritchard says 'bonds beckon?'

I can see bonds in a hooded black monks habit beckoning with a bony finger while holding a scythe in his right hand. Bonds, the biggest last bubble.

Actually it was a good article. Similar to what Marc Faber fleshed out for us several months ago.

I see the price declines and I get all tingly inside. Oh but when to pounce?

In the meantime I'll just have to be happy with my investment in a Laotian vegatable plantation.
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dknoester · Posted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:00 pm Post subject: Deutsche Bank on Commodities

Deutsche calls the top of the commodity cycle:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=A1YourView&xml=/money/2008/08/04/ccview104.xml

DK
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HenryTo · Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 4:13 pm Post subject:

BCA now looking for a further correction in commodity prices:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080730.GIF

rffrydr · Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 8:34 pm Post subject:

Grasslands opened to corn production:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/corn-prices-slip-after-usda/story.aspx?guid=%7B474ECCF1%2DD94D%2D4E92%2DAC58%2D69DDC169DC3E%7D
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 7:21 pm Post subject:

Wheat already might be called a bear market.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject:

BCA now looking for a correction in raw materials prices:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080528.GIF

Note that the CRB raw materials index is exclusive of energy and is described by the following:

http://www.crbtrader.com/crbindex/spot_current.asp

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 4:31 pm Post subject:

They've certainly been right not to fade these unlike some Embarassed

There's a view taking hold (and promulgated hard among the aussies) that once annual income in developing countries reaches about $2000 the pressure starts. S. Korea is the model and China is pushing this figure now.

Then there's the idea (mine) that huge overinvestment in commodity hungry industries (copper is an export) driven by provincial prejudices and the inefficient lock-downs by govts are triggering hoarding.....

That these markets took the Hedge liquidation these last two selloffs is impressive.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 3:05 pm Post subject:

BCA looking for an eventual "mania-like overshoot" in commodities:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080408.GIF

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:48 pm Post subject:

Like:

http://new.quote.com/us/futures/chart.action?s=LB+H8&chartUi.period=W&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.bartype=AREA&chartUi.size=620x300&chartUi.minutes=

If it's hoarding and not infrastructure a la GKal then maybe the risks are on the other side.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 1:41 pm Post subject:

BCA on the need to be more selective in the commodity space going forward:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080220.GIF

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 8:13 am Post subject:

Exxon, Monsanto, Int. Paper all telling lower:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/chevron-shares-under-pressure-after/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA4CF148%2D4398%2D46E2%2D9DF5%2D3AB6D66C5195%7D
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:19 pm Post subject:

I hope they didn't mean cocoa:

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=ff*aid=3381*time=pm
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:00 pm Post subject:

BCA on energy plays:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20070926.GIF

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:06 pm Post subject:

Still bullish on commodities in general but says to avoid housing-related commodities, such as copper and lumber:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20070810.GIF