BCA on the Fed

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:48 am Post subject: BCA on the Fed

Asserts that based on the Taylor Rule, the Fed's easing cycle is still not done:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20071101.GIF

diesel · Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject:

I sold some of my SP500 Emini futures at the close today and rotated those profits into a short position on the Euro. Other than that I am long the dow, select tech stocks + Jap small caps. Should be interesting tommorow!

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

Haven't changed in a couple of weeks. Next revisit for the personal portfolio is 2nd W/E in Feb.

Long the BRI out of BRIC, Steel and Clean Energy, Euro and long Ts, Gold, Oil, and Soft Commods. Full house, 100%.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:22 pm Post subject:

Somehow I think they'll do what they've done before: they will make us feel it. Given they don't like intra-meeting cuts...which may be a reason not to. There are now four new voting members, with two dedicated hawks. Gold making all-time highs. Real Funds Rate out 2years is lower than it ever got in 0'1. And they will be better able to game the jobs numbers after. Bank index is over 90...maybe time to spring something innovative. Something with the SIV assets (a la the Russian central bank Embarassed

) or RMBS CDOs. They could also go .50 at the Fiscal annnouncement.... But .50 does show they were'nt fooled by Jerome.

We owed' alot to BA and housing today. I'm staying short euro and aussie and trim my financials into the meeting--in other words, still long; hedging tomorrow.

Anybody else?
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HenryTo · Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 12:20 pm Post subject:

More easing still needed - and given the Fed's actions so far, the BCA doubts that it will disappoint:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080129.GIF

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:36 pm Post subject:

Markets have no confidence in the ability of the Fed and Congress to stop the bloodbath in the market at this point, but the BCA says otherwise:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080121.GIF

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:12 pm Post subject:

Very similar to what we discussed in our most recent commentary and over the last few trading days. Cites that a reassuring and stimulative Fed should ensure that stock prices will move higher this year:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080114.GIF

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:19 pm Post subject:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20071211.GIF