| Author |
BCA on the Stock Market Replies |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
 Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:05 am Post subject: |
 |
|
In October most bank stocks were back at March '09 crisis lows and even Berkshire was to the point of triggering first buybacks in living memory--if not longer 
We're getting spoiled.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11722
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 3:15 am Post subject: |
|
|
BCA on global stock prices vs. global central bank policies.
http://bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20120306.GIF
| Quote: | The bounce off the October bottom in stock prices has been impressive. What happens now?
The strong rally in stocks in the last few months means that the undervaluation in stocks has largely been erased. Further price gains may be harder to come by, but it is premature to anticipate another stumble. In fact, according to our Global Investment Strategy service, the biggest surprise may be that the rally will carry on further than most anticipate. This year a change is clearly underway: There is hardly any central bank that is still in tightening mode. Instead, the leading central banks such as the ECB, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) are leading a new reflation cycle. Our advance/decline gauge of global central bank policy is at record low levels, indicating the massive breadth of easy policy. Although it is too soon to expect reflation to stoke growth due to a time lag, expansive monetary policy almost always eases equity multiple compression, allowing stock prices to rise. True, technical indicators are not nearly as bullish as they were in October, but there is nothing to suggest that the rally will be cut short imminently. Bottom line: Monetary reflation is a key support for risk assets. With virtually all central banks in easing mode, and in the absence of negative exogenous shocks, the tendency will be for stock prices to rise. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11722
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 4:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20110726.GIF
| Quote: | Alpha, not beta, could give investors low-double digit returns in a low nominal return world.
Correlations among S&P 500 stocks have dropped sharply. This often occurs during a transition phase that resets the price trend to a much flatter trajectory for the broader market. This also highlights that alpha strategy has become much more important than beta exposure. Similarly, correlations among global equity markets have also dropped precipitously. This partially reflects shifting equity leadership, but also mirrors the highly divergent macro cycles among national economies. Some countries are overheating, while others are sluggish, and policy divergence has become increasingly important as a driver. This means that the equity game is no longer “risk on” or “risk off” because country selection has become key. According to our Global Investment Strategy service, investors should no longer treat emerging market stocks as one unified asset class. In the emerging market universe, Indian and Brazilian stocks will continue to be irritated by high inflation and large current account deficits. In contrast, China’s fight against inflation is at an advanced stage and the stock market could move up in the second half of this year. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11722
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 10:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080919.GIF
| Quote: | | We have published several times over the past year a checklist of events that need to ease banking sector stress and restore confidence in financial markets. While the details of the plan have not yet been decided, let alone released, on the surface this appears to be the "open ended" commitment that we have been waiting for to put a floor under risky assets. That said, not all is rosy heading forward: the U.S. economic outlook remains bleak and financial sector deleveraging will likely persist, providing a tough earnings environment. Correspondingly, it will be critical that investors refocus on fundamentals and be selective once fears of Armageddon have been unwound. Stay tuned. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
Housing has a lot on its shoulders.
I wouldn't say "blindsided" with a market cap greater than The GOOG (wait a minute, is that the right standard?) but darling APPLE ahead of tomorrow's dog and pony show, and that more mundane Google, POT, OIL, is telling us there's still more rotation out of the last bull due.
Techs biggest customers are still Financials. This too will cycle.
Gotta think yield is coming. Savings rates are negative and "solar" has had its day. No leaders help.
CNBC showing their primmed xxx standing amongst the copper-stripped ruins of Stockton home for sale (misreported) at $25,000.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11722
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11722
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:28 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Yes, with the FFR and LIBOR projected to be at 2.0% by late June, there will be no choice for many people but to take risks. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Yet it's money markets that are supposed to be fitted with these revolving muni auctions that apparently can be put back to the bank in as little as thirty days--wouldn't that be the irony, cash scaring money back into the market 
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11722
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:55 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| No new info on this. We got swamped with calls from our clients to look into this during August/September last year, but since then, the issue has died down. We have continued to look at this over the last six months but I don't believe any MM fund will "break the buck" anytime soon - at least not in the US anyway. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:22 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Those "money-markets" are proving less and less safe as Ratings breakdown and liquidations are forced leading to terrible prices, bad spreads, and increased costs of not just trading...but litigation.
The Banks have intervened to hold the dollar line...but that the Banks.
Any info on this? The screaming two-year may not just be equity money.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11722
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
"Cash on the sidelines" indicator from the BCA - as we have discussed in our commentaries over the last six weeks:
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080218.GIF
| Quote: | | Cash is flowing into retail and institutional money market funds at a record pace, which reflects the extreme pessimism that exists towards risk assets. However, the desire to hold money market funds and T-bills will not last as aggressive interest rate cuts means that investors now receive unattractively low returns. It will still take a positive catalyst before sidelined cash gets re-deployed towards risk assets (i.e. an end to the credit crunch and less economic pessimism). However, the run-up in cash reserves underscores that there will be no shortage of liquidity to propel asset prices once risk-taking returns. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
texfly101
Senior Poster
Joined: 22 Oct 2007
Posts: 118
|
| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject: |
|
|
yep, that and Fundamental and Rotational (thanks Bill) make for a very diversified portfolio. Thanks Bill for putting all that work into those systems. I have seen the benefits of being able to weather the storm by staying the course. Its been a real education to say the least...dj
_________________
dj |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
nodoodahs
Moderator
Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 2408
|
| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 5:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| texfly101 wrote: | ...
So far I have taken the safe course and structured my portfolio according to The Retirement Adviser (thanks Henry). ... |
Glad you found something that works for you!
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 4:53 pm Post subject: |
|
|
All in the name of "transparency"--democracy.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
texfly101
Senior Poster
Joined: 22 Oct 2007
Posts: 118
|
| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 11:55 am Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks, that's exactly what I was looking for and it makes sense. I liked what you said about this being uncharted territory. After listening to the debates last nite, I was struck by the amount of rhetoric regarding fiscal policy that seems a bit like grasping for solutions. Freezing interest rates, specific policy to help mortgage liquidity, with the threat of recession hovering. All of this brings to mind the wage freeze and price controls that the Nixon administration enacted which was unprecedented in peacetime.
So far I have taken the safe course and structured my portfolio according to The Retirement Adviser (thanks Henry). So it is interesting to watch as these times sure do seem to be in line with what the Dow Theory talks about, turbulence, uncertainty, and needing to pay attention to other aspects, not just the market technicals. Its an immense flood of info out there to sift thru and determine what to pay attention to. Thanks for the insights.
_________________
dj |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
