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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 6965 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 6461 Location: Sunny California
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diesel Moderator


Joined: 05 Oct 2006 Posts: 282 Location: Australia & New Zealand
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Posted: Sat May 05, 2007 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | "Its not a time to be swinging for the fences" |
Great read, thanks for the posting the article... |
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diesel Moderator


Joined: 05 Oct 2006 Posts: 282 Location: Australia & New Zealand
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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 6965 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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Posted: Sat May 05, 2007 10:56 pm Post subject: |
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Diesel,
Thanks for the post. As I mentioned before, I also agree that subprime won't be an "anchor" to the U.S. economy, as long as lenders don't pull back from their lending in a significant way going forward. If much of the lending had been done by commercial banks instead - and they were in the past - then this would have been a multi-year story.
Of course, the jury is still out, but even though I don't think subprime will be too much of a drag going forward, there is no doubt that the housing boom is over, and that housing prices - in particular California, Arizona, Florida, etc. will be flat for the rest of this decade. |
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 6461 Location: Sunny California
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Posted: Sun May 06, 2007 6:37 am Post subject: |
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No sooner said than he says this:
| Quote: | | ``There's nothing worse in life than a competitor who's willing to pay too much,'' Buffett said in an interview before the annual meeting began. ``People can get very high fees for managing funds, and as fast as they can get one fund invested, then get another fund.'' |
Wasn't that what Subprime was all about? The fees?
ps Did he say, "too much"? _________________ Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 6965 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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Posted: Sun May 06, 2007 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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Buffett talks more about succession plans. Good chance that Berkshire will rally coming off of this weekend's annual shareholders' meeting:
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Buffett Provides Some Succession Details
Sunday May 6, 8:35 pm ET
By Josh Funk, AP Business Writer
Buffett Provides Some Details About 1 of 3 Positions in His Succession Plan
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett doesn't want to give up the throne at his holding company anytime soon, but the 76-year-old is preparing for that day.
Many details remain secret, But the question of who might become Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s chief investment officer is getting the most attention because Buffett said in March he plans to hire one or more candidates for that position soon on a trial basis.
Wrapping up this weekend's activities surrounding Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders meeting, Buffett said whoever he hires should expect to be paid based on how well their investments perform.
"I would give them a small salary, and then pay them a percentage based on how they outperformed the S&P on a five-year average," Buffett said at a news conference Sunday.
Vice Chairman Charlie Munger said that fits with the company's overall compensation plan.
"Generally, we want people's compensation tied to what they can control," Munger said. So he said Berkshire's new investment managers won't be paid based on Berkshire's overall value.
When he returns to the office Monday, Buffett will encounter the 600 to 700 applications he's already received for that post, and the mail will likely bring more.
Buffett said the investment managers he hires won't necessarily be expected to live in Omaha where he and the company's 19-person headquarters are based.
"My notion would be to let them live wherever they feel best about life," Buffett said. "Wherever you can think best, the information is readily available."
Of the three of four investment managers Buffett plans to hire, he has said one, or maybe two, would eventually become Berkshire's chief investment officer.
That's one of the three jobs Buffett is dividing his duties into as part of his succession plan.
The only part that has been spelled out is the job of chairman. Buffett has said that when he dies, his son will take over the job to ensure Berkshire's culture is preserved. Howard Buffett already serves on the board.
Buffett said he has already picked three managers of companies Berkshire Hathaway Inc. owns who could succeed him as chief executive tomorrow, if the need arose.
"All three of them would be, in many respects, better at it than I am," Buffett said Sunday. "But they don't own 30 percent of the stock, so they'll have to wait."
Four Berkshire managers that keep coming up as possible successors are: Ajit Jain, who runs Berkshire's reinsurance division; Tony Nicely, chief executive of Berkshire subsidiary Geico; Richard T. Santulli of NetJets; and David Sokol, CEO of Iowa-based MidAmerican Energy.
But Buffett said again Sunday that he still loves what he does and is in good health.
"I feel terrific. You ought to try this peanut brittle," Buffett said, referring to the box of candy he and Munger kept between them at the news conference.
Despite the central role Munger plays in the company, little attention is paid to finding a successor for the 83-year-old vice chairman. But he says that's how it should be.
"I do not need to be replaced," Munger said. "If you fade away, you do not need to be replaced."
Berkshire owns more than 60 companies including insurance, clothing, furniture, jewelry and candy companies, restaurants, natural gas and corporate jet firms and has major investments in such companies as Coca-Cola Co., Anheuser-Busch Cos. and Wells Fargo & Co. |
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 6461 Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 6461 Location: Sunny California
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Posted: Mon May 14, 2007 7:02 am Post subject: |
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Buffet announced he had put on a "surprising" currency play. Short Euro would be most surprising considering his last attempt. Long Yen would be more in keeping.
Ideas? _________________ Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 6461 Location: Sunny California
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Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 6:43 am Post subject: |
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Talk is it's the Loonie! _________________ Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 6965 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 6965 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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rffrydr Moderator


Joined: 30 Oct 2005 Posts: 6461 Location: Sunny California
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Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 7:34 am Post subject: |
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The great decrier of derivatives takes a 1.6bn non-cash loss--on mark to market--final proof that in times like these it's not the numbers, it's the counting. _________________ Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
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HenryTo Site Admin


Joined: 06 Aug 2004 Posts: 6965 Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, a significant chunk of this loss was on put options that Berkshire wrote in four major market indices. Since March 31st, Berkshire has probably recovered 30% to 40% of this $1.2 billion loss on these put options:
| Quote: | Our second major category of derivatives is long-term equity put options that we sold on four major stock indices, including the S&P 500. These contracts come due between 2019 and 2028. As they expire, we will make payments to the holders of these puts only if the index in question is below its level at the time we wrote the put. If markets are higher, we will owe nothing. In the meantime, the premiums we have received are ours to invest freely.
At yearend we were holding $4.5 billion in premiums we had received for these puts and had recorded a liability of $4.6 billion for possible payments in 2019-2027. During the first quarter we received $383 million from the sale of additional puts, which are due in 2023-2028, and increased our overall liability to $6.2 billion. This change largely reflected the decline in world stock markets, but we also made valuation adjustments that took account of movements in foreign exchange rates and interest rates. Overall, our first-quarter accounting loss on our put contracts was $1.2 billion.
We believe that these contracts will prove profitable over the 15-20 year periods they cover, even if we exclude the investment income we can expect to earn on the $4.9 billion that we hold. However, as the first quarter indicates – and as we warned in our 2007 annual report – Berkshire’s earnings may swing widely because of the accounting regulations that govern the reporting of derivatives contracts. |
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nodoodahs Moderator


Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1729 Location: TX
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Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 12:45 pm Post subject: |
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IMO this is materially the same condition that many holders of CDOs based on subprime mortgages would be in, if they could have afforded to weather the swings in mark to market ~ a paper loss on a quarter, followed by their receiving full value for their investment over time.
Why is Buffett's situation viewed differently by the market?
Is it because of the lighter leverage (probably part of it) or because he's Buffett (probably part of it)? _________________ He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard. |
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