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Bill Miller |
dash
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 Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 7:43 am Post subject: Bill Miller |
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| Quote: | The situation today is more complicated. Stocks are cheap in relation to bonds, in my
opinion, and U.S. stocks, especially the U.S. mega-caps that were so expensive in 1999, appear
particularly attractive on a long-term basis. The popular winners of today remain, as they have
for several years: energy, materials, commodity-related companies, China, India, emerging
markets, and non-U.S. generally. In the first quarter, materials was the best sector, but anything
hard asset or infrastructure related did pretty well.
We benefited particularly fromour large holdings in steel stocks, which rose over 30% in the
quarter. Our also large homebuilder position, on the other hand, declined by about the same
percentage. You may be surprised (but you should not be) that we are more cautious near-term
on our steel position, but increasingly optimistic about the builders.
The news flow on steel is great, and will likely get even better in the second quarter, as
margins expand due to the pricing umbrella provided to the integrated companies such as
United States Steel Corp., by the increase in scrap prices and the resultant price increases
instituted by market leader Nucor.
The news flow on builders is terrible, what with the subprime collapse, foreclosures soaring,
home prices falling, and the companies mostly losing money.No housing bubble now! But the
builders trade around book value, and some, like our holdings Beazer Homes USA Inc. and
MeritageHomes Corp., well below book value. Buying builders around book value or below has
historically been a prescription for excess returns for anyone willing to look out a couple of
years. But whenever they reach book value, investors don’t want them because they are looking
out the next few months or so, and are fearful of what new bad news may occur.
In general, you should expect us to be selling what people like, and buying what they hate.
This is not done naively, it is just that mostly what people like is expensive, and what they don’t
like is cheap, and buying the cheap asset and selling the expensive one seems logical, except
when you actually do it.
One of the new things we have been doing, which may seem at odds with that, is some
private equity deals. We bought a position in a fund called AP Alternative Assets, a funding
vehicle created by Apollo, one of the largest and most accomplished private equity firms. Since
The Investment Commentary is not a part of the Quarterly Report to Shareholders.
the investment, Apollo has given us the opportunity to invest alongside them in some of their
deals. You will hear more about these investments in future letters.
iv Investment Commentary |
http://www.leggmason.com/funds/ourfunds/rts/Opportunity_Trust_3-31-07.pdf
There are also a lot of fantastic insights of a more general nature in the annual report. A must read:
http://www.leggmason.com/funds/ourfunds/rts/Value_Trust_3-31-07.pdf |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Tue Dec 09, 2008 11:23 pm Post subject: |
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WSJ chronicles the recent missteps of Bill Miller:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122886123425292617.html
The old "yacht indicator" proved to be quite the predictor:
| Quote: | In 1999, he cut an unusually lucrative deal with Legg Mason to take the reins of Opportunity Trust, a new fund. The fund's management fees went to an entity half-owned by Mr. Miller. From 2005 through 2007, Opportunity Trust paid the entity $137 million. In 2006, he bought a 235-foot yacht, "Utopia."
Investing is Mr. Miller's obsession, friends say. On visits to Manhattan, he convenes chief executives, stock analysts and other money managers for steak dinner at the Post House to discuss investment ideas. His yacht aside, these friends say, Mr. Miller pays little attention to wealth's trappings: His work shoes are a pair of black loafers, purchased at Nordstrom, that he gets resoled again and again. |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 9:16 am Post subject: |
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| FYI: Legg Mason announcing earnings tomorrow morning. |
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rffrydr
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nodoodahs
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Joined: 06 May 2005
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| Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 5:33 am Post subject: |
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I used to think that Goldi and Kurt met on the set of "Overboard," but I looked it up once and found out it was some other movie ("Swing Shift?" can't remember). She passed on that "hotness" to Kate.
Kurt was in "Used Cars" - which is FANTASTIC for its deep political insights. A "must rent" pre-election.
I have Edward Herrman narrating "Atlas Shrugged" on cassette (actually it's like a dozen cassettes).
Back to Bill Miller - no value investor worth his salt should ever own shares of anything that doesn't have current financial statements. Can't look at balance sheets that ain't there. Several of the holdings that brought him down would've been sold years ago if he followed that rule; granted, he might have bought them back, but that's another story.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose. |
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rffrydr
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Odysseus
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Joined: 14 Feb 2008
Posts: 109
Location: Dallas/Moscow
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| Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject: |
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Met Goldi Hawn at a Glenwood Springs CO. Mazda dealer in the late 90's. I had locked the keys to my rental in the trunk and only had the valet. She was having a sunroof installed in Kurt's Surburban. I bought her a free cup of coffee. What a babe. I always coveted either her or Cher. Oh well.
Anchored in Monoco, Bill abviously succumbed to a gambling habit.
"An American, a Brit and an Italian were dockside in Monoco. The American said, 'we preface OUR ships with USS, as in United States Steamer.' The Brit replied 'we preface OURS with HMS as in His or Her Majesty's Ship.' Obviously the American and Brit waited for a reply from their Italian companion. Minutes passed. Finally the Italian Chap piped up and said, 'we preface our ships with DMB.' Asked for translation, the Italian replied 'Datsa Mi Boat'.
Poor Bill Miller. He will be the brunt of jokes for eaons. Yet I somehow doubt he will need to trade down to a private Pullman or a Winnabago. How he could have missed the most obvious mis-priced risk in financials balance sheets will always remain a wunder to me. New Century in January 07 was the tell of tells................Mining balance sheets has and always will be the secret of investment success. Screw EBITDahhhhh and share buybacks! Cheesecake Factory??????? Bought at the top, quit buying at the bottom? Clueless. Same for GE and all the other 'engineers'.
Sorry for the OT but when the hell did shareholders abrigate the distribution of corporate excess cash flow to the hedge fund mentality of corporate CFO's? Answer. When their IB's wanted a fee.
Regards,
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Psychic with Alzheimers. I can predict what I will forget. |
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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Every time I think about yachts, I flash back to the Goldi Hawn movie "Overboard" where Edward Herrman is watching "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" and drooling over the "top ten most luxurious yachts"
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Odysseus
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Joined: 14 Feb 2008
Posts: 109
Location: Dallas/Moscow
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| Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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Aha. Perhaps I have discovered the REAL reason for Bill Miller's implosion these last 4 years.
Sitting in the 'gentlemen's smoker' this morning I was thumbing through the latest issue of "International Yachts Magazine.' They obviously have me confused for someone who has money. Probably FIDO sold them my name.
Anyway, there are a lot of Feadship Yachts featured. As an aside, this issue bulks up at 349 pages. Reminded me of an old Sears Roebuck catalog. This mag may become one of my leading economic indicators  Lot of yachts for sale 
Looking at the history of Feadship, they provide a chronology of the yachts they have built and the owners.
Ole Bill took delivery of the 'UTOPIA', a 71.6 meter yacht direct from the Dutch shipyard in 2004!
Obviously the vessel was mis-named. It should have been called 'SISYPHUS!!!'
Regards,
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Psychic with Alzheimers. I can predict what I will forget. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:36 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah, talk about a "six-sgima" event! When sorrows come.....
But Miller's right: the powers that be are denying him mark to market--even if that's a grave marker. --And that is a lesson for all of us.
This is not a once-in-a-decade event. It will be a long time before we see 2005 again.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
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Rubedo
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| Posted: Sat Sep 13, 2008 12:18 pm Post subject: |
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2 more of Miller's holdings have imploded this week, Lehman and AIG. If you're keeping score, Miller also owned Countrywide, Bear Stearns, and Freddie Mac. Not once has he admitted he was wrong on any of these.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/investing/bal-bz.millerfreddie13sep13,0,2043495.story
Bill Miller, chairman of Legg Mason Capital Management, who bought more Freddie Mac shares this summer to become the company's largest shareholder, yesterday criticized the U.S. government's takeover of Freddie and Fannie Mae.
"Most troubling to the market is having private companies seized when they're in compliance with all published capital requirements," Miller said in a conference call yesterday with clients, Bloomberg News reported.
Legg declined to provide a transcript of the call because Miller's call was intended for clients only, according to a company spokeswoman, who confirmed the comments.
Miller's Baltimore-based subsidiary and its affiliate was the largest shareholder of Freddie Mac with a 12 percent stake as of July 31, according to regulatory filings.
Miller's biggest fund, the $9.14 billion Value Trust, held 17.7 million shares of Freddie Mac as of June 30, according to regulatory filings. He also bought 20 million shares for the $4.34 billion Opportunity Trust during July and August, according to regulatory filings. Both funds are down 31 percent this year, compared with the 14 percent drop for the S&P 500. |
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diesel
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Posts: 793
Location: Australia & New Zealand
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 3:41 pm Post subject: |
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| mtvk wrote: | As regard to Jeremy Grantham.
His projections are common sense based. His theory always been
"reversion to mean". He is saying now, in the next 7 years the
high quality blue chip US stocks will outperform all asset categories. |
His Malthusian views are one heck of a reversion to norm. Id take the techno optimist views over his any day. The trend is your friend.
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