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Bill Miller |
dash
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 Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 7:43 am Post subject: Bill Miller |
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| Quote: | The situation today is more complicated. Stocks are cheap in relation to bonds, in my
opinion, and U.S. stocks, especially the U.S. mega-caps that were so expensive in 1999, appear
particularly attractive on a long-term basis. The popular winners of today remain, as they have
for several years: energy, materials, commodity-related companies, China, India, emerging
markets, and non-U.S. generally. In the first quarter, materials was the best sector, but anything
hard asset or infrastructure related did pretty well.
We benefited particularly fromour large holdings in steel stocks, which rose over 30% in the
quarter. Our also large homebuilder position, on the other hand, declined by about the same
percentage. You may be surprised (but you should not be) that we are more cautious near-term
on our steel position, but increasingly optimistic about the builders.
The news flow on steel is great, and will likely get even better in the second quarter, as
margins expand due to the pricing umbrella provided to the integrated companies such as
United States Steel Corp., by the increase in scrap prices and the resultant price increases
instituted by market leader Nucor.
The news flow on builders is terrible, what with the subprime collapse, foreclosures soaring,
home prices falling, and the companies mostly losing money.No housing bubble now! But the
builders trade around book value, and some, like our holdings Beazer Homes USA Inc. and
MeritageHomes Corp., well below book value. Buying builders around book value or below has
historically been a prescription for excess returns for anyone willing to look out a couple of
years. But whenever they reach book value, investors don’t want them because they are looking
out the next few months or so, and are fearful of what new bad news may occur.
In general, you should expect us to be selling what people like, and buying what they hate.
This is not done naively, it is just that mostly what people like is expensive, and what they don’t
like is cheap, and buying the cheap asset and selling the expensive one seems logical, except
when you actually do it.
One of the new things we have been doing, which may seem at odds with that, is some
private equity deals. We bought a position in a fund called AP Alternative Assets, a funding
vehicle created by Apollo, one of the largest and most accomplished private equity firms. Since
The Investment Commentary is not a part of the Quarterly Report to Shareholders.
the investment, Apollo has given us the opportunity to invest alongside them in some of their
deals. You will hear more about these investments in future letters.
iv Investment Commentary |
http://www.leggmason.com/funds/ourfunds/rts/Opportunity_Trust_3-31-07.pdf
There are also a lot of fantastic insights of a more general nature in the annual report. A must read:
http://www.leggmason.com/funds/ourfunds/rts/Value_Trust_3-31-07.pdf |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:56 pm Post subject: |
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End of the (blood) line. The era of Big Fund stars is passed. Buffett is the exception that proves the rule.
Whither "Fidelity"?
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diesel
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| Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:12 am Post subject: |
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Yeah I guess you could put it that way. There were a lot of headlines about Miller and his funds performance either side of that though if I remember correctly.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:20 pm Post subject: |
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Wasn't the Fannie/Freddie Preferreds blowup in Miller's in Fall '08 about the worst of it???
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diesel
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| Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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.... provided you can handle a margin of error of plus or minus a year. 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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....And not a bad marker for the last low.
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lewie2004
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| Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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| That is like 3-out of the last 5 years for him. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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Where's the "deep thinking"? Half the article concerns "succession risk" (see "Celebrity Cycle") Half is how to get the jump on the competition.
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HenryTo
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diesel
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rffrydr
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 11:04 am Post subject: |
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For 1-year it looks great. For 14+ years it looks great. For any annualized performance from 2- to 13-years, not so much.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2009 10:10 am Post subject: |
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You can't take that Agency hit and keep going--if you're a hedge fund. The mutual fund structure at least allows us these "sagas" without which Wall St. would loose its character(s).
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:55 am Post subject: |
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Minus 2% over ten years from the man who beat his indicies 20 of 27 years. Is that what has retail spooked? How much depends on that first step!
It's always been about dividends and bonds. Other than that, it's between Buffett and Kirk. There is no middle ground.
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