"Bond Bubble" trade

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 9:34 am Post subject: "Bond Bubble" trade

Huge hedge short in 10yr getting whittled down.

This is one contrarian play I've steered well clear. A "flight to safety" cannot be a "bubble." With FED policy flat for 16mos .60 on a two-year is a good deal. --Still, looking for a bigger move sooner than that.

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rffrydr · Posted: Fri May 18, 2012 10:35 am Post subject:

$99B coming down the pike next week...and will be scooped up for the repo markets have run out of AAA to make them work.

Kass went big short last week. He still believes in a rational market. Wink

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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 7:57 am Post subject:

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:37 am Post subject:

Most certainly not '94 bond crash model but might be tempted with a short position as 10yr trades below 2% into Fed 25th and tremors of tightness. Idea

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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:56 am Post subject:

Bearded dove holding strong with lower for longer. "Ontologically" speaking this does cap rate highs. Goldman meanwhile makes big turn call, bond to equites. Don't have anything to say about it but that it should be noted--and I'm not a big believer in the '94 bond crash model. I'd be very surprised to see sub 2's on the 10yr again without some great exogenous catastrophe however. Rolling Eyes

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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:25 pm Post subject:

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HenryTo · Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 9:53 pm Post subject:

Ed Yardeni on the possibility of earlier-than-expected rate hikes.

http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/03/us-treasury-bond-yields.html

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 10:13 am Post subject:

Fitting that this would start as GB contemplates issuing a 100-year term perpetual bond. Mexico and Disney, to name two, have come just before. Twisted Evil

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 4:33 pm Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 10:14 am Post subject:

Jim Grant, wronger for longer, just bought his a wife a gold sovereign for Valentine's Day.... Rolling Eyes

Listen for the mea culpa (watch for a break of 140):

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vN114mOLcgPw.mp3
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HenryTo · Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 1:12 pm Post subject:

Long time no see, Bill. How are you doing?

Tomorrow is as good a time as any!

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:22 am Post subject:

I pick...tomorrow. Shocked

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nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 2:12 am Post subject:

Surely there is a bubble in Treasuries if they allow negative interest rates.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/01/treasury-ponders-negative-interest-rates/

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 6:48 am Post subject:

Barnes Index revisted:

A little push by the economy? Fat chance. Large Cap Dividend payers, nope. Treasuries:

http://www.bloomberg.com/

9% and currency to boot. Our currency my just be europe's "savior."

Sadly, a privileged game: not passing thru to mortgage rates...or any other rates for that matter.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:58 am Post subject:

Fed Foreign holdings of Treasuries fell $20.5 bln. $62.6 bln has been
liquidated in the past 4-weeks.
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