BOTTOMS

rffrydr · Posted: Mon May 11, 2009 10:34 am Post subject: BOTTOMS

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25634527

Another sign of fakery – apart from the implausible 'V' shape – is the "dash for trash" in this rally. The mostly heavily shorted stocks are up 70pc: the least shorted are up 21pc. Stocks with bad fundamentals in SocGen's model (Anheuser-Busch, Cairn Energy, Ericsson) are up 60pc: the best are up 30pc.

This is always the case at the beginning of every upturn because short positions have to be closed. Markets don't rally out of lows from long buying, the long buyer comes in much later. It is shorts buying to close their winning positions who mark the turn. Shorts retaking positions higher and then closing them at a loss drive things up further than they ever would get from long buying.

The long investors, looking for "good" companies tend to sit and wait for pull backs that never come! If anything long buying drives down prices (people buying bargains that then become bigger bargains) and short selling drives it up as the price moves in the direction of the bulk of demand or supply.

In the beginning of a rising market the bulk of demand for buying long is always below the existing price, but almost all short buy stops are set above as are short sell limit orders, price has to find the "book".

The shell shocked longs also add to the upward momentum. They set sell limit orders above, all the while uttering that timeless prayer to the market gods where they swear that, "Please, please, please, God, if the stock price just gets back to xyz I will sell it and never again buy another stock."

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 10:24 pm Post subject:

Considering the minuscule application of loan modification in the heart of the matter, residential RE, I'd be surprised if these guys don't stay surprised. Big trends change fast in this game; they're defined by the negation of a negation--that's what we call an abstraction. And you'll never call a bottom by committee.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/02/139001/shadow-bank-losses/
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 10:10 pm Post subject:

The problem with "relations":

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:49 pm Post subject:

One way to look at the global hard assets dollar-driven divergence, a.k.a. china stimulus:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$FTSE:$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p55096743806
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 8:45 am Post subject:

Up In the Air. Movies are monuments:

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 6:48 am Post subject:

Number one reason for buying a home now, not rates, not price....they've bottomed:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-pct-of-Americans-plan-to-apf-2743716756.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:47 pm Post subject:

Goldman calls a false bottom in housing--as if there could be a "true" one:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/26/79646/goldman-says-us-govt-boosted-home-prices-by-5/
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 9:59 am Post subject:

Office space in SoCal:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover-comre18-2009oct18,0,6747950.story

Is this article really a negative?
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 3:55 pm Post subject:

Fitting turn:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFRfJ_PJDUHg
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 1:02 pm Post subject:

Give us your tired, your poor, your crippled:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiaGHy7G8SCs

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125112783577054007.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:51 am Post subject:

The sun shines in Vegas:

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1915962,00.html

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2009 11:59 am Post subject:

Compression of time and money.....same thing:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/52c7c74e-54cd-11de-b953-00144feabdc0.html
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 12:21 pm Post subject:

Compression of time and killing of widows and orphans:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm-kills-the-widow-and-orphan-stock-myth?siteid=rss&rss=1
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2009 9:04 am Post subject:

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BCOM&date=20090305&id=9672096
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rffrydr · Posted: Sat May 30, 2009 11:16 am Post subject:

This guy's head is still in 2007:

As for recent US stock rallies: here’s a word from Merrill’s chief economist David Rosenberg (no link), courtesy of Option Armageddon:

rffrydr · Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 11:54 am Post subject:

Vegas is setting a clearing price:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10506614/3/las-vegas-foreclosure-frenzy-continues.html

This may be the one place where the absentee investor is the "natural owner."
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