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rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon May 11, 2009 10:34 am Post subject: BOTTOMS |
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http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25634527
Another sign of fakery – apart from the implausible 'V' shape – is the "dash for trash" in this rally. The mostly heavily shorted stocks are up 70pc: the least shorted are up 21pc. Stocks with bad fundamentals in SocGen's model (Anheuser-Busch, Cairn Energy, Ericsson) are up 60pc: the best are up 30pc.
This is always the case at the beginning of every upturn because short positions have to be closed. Markets don't rally out of lows from long buying, the long buyer comes in much later. It is shorts buying to close their winning positions who mark the turn. Shorts retaking positions higher and then closing them at a loss drive things up further than they ever would get from long buying.
The long investors, looking for "good" companies tend to sit and wait for pull backs that never come! If anything long buying drives down prices (people buying bargains that then become bigger bargains) and short selling drives it up as the price moves in the direction of the bulk of demand or supply.
In the beginning of a rising market the bulk of demand for buying long is always below the existing price, but almost all short buy stops are set above as are short sell limit orders, price has to find the "book".
The shell shocked longs also add to the upward momentum. They set sell limit orders above, all the while uttering that timeless prayer to the market gods where they swear that, "Please, please, please, God, if the stock price just gets back to xyz I will sell it and never again buy another stock."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:08 am Post subject: |
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Bumpditty bump bump. Nice way to go out. It weren't none too pretty--but life never is.
| rffrydr wrote: | This don't show on Stockcharts.com. Most are forgetting the wee hours of Aug 8--cause they were asleep!
[img]http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.com/charts/new/advanced/advanced.chart?ID_NOTATION=8941863&TIME_SPAN=6M&TYPE=mountain&RESOLUTION=D&AXIS_SCALE=&ID_BENCH1=&ID_BENCH2=&ID_BENCH3=&IND_1=&AVG1=&IND_2=&DIVIDEND=0&SPLITS=0[/img]
Europe
Nov 14, 2011 | 9:47 AM EST
| Quote: | I see Spanish bond yields are up quite a bit today and our market doesn't much care for now. So I thought I would let you know that my mother called this weekend. She was in a slight panic, wanting to know if she should sell her Euros. Apparently she has a few hundred Euros left from some trips she has taken to Europe.
My take is that the evening news has gotten so loud about Europe's problems, enough so that my mother is now in a panic over it. |
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ID_BENCH1=
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:13 am Post subject: |
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Dollar Tree sales slow YOY as Target and WalMart jump. 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 8:28 am Post subject: |
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This don't show on Stockcharts.com. Most are forgetting the wee hours of Aug 8--cause they were asleep!
[img]http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.com/charts/new/advanced/advanced.chart?ID_NOTATION=8941863&TIME_SPAN=6M&TYPE=mountain&RESOLUTION=D&AXIS_SCALE=&ID_BENCH1=&ID_BENCH2=&ID_BENCH3=&IND_1=&AVG1=&IND_2=&DIVIDEND=0&SPLITS=0[/img]
Europe
Nov 14, 2011 | 9:47 AM EST
| Quote: | I see Spanish bond yields are up quite a bit today and our market doesn't much care for now. So I thought I would let you know that my mother called this weekend. She was in a slight panic, wanting to know if she should sell her Euros. Apparently she has a few hundred Euros left from some trips she has taken to Europe.
My take is that the evening news has gotten so loud about Europe's problems, enough so that my mother is now in a panic over it. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2011 7:13 am Post subject: |
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So far so good:
Jim Cramer
| Quote: | We love to fool ourselves in this market, don't we? Today people are buying futures as they "await" Ben Bernanke and statements coming out of Jackson Hole. They are hoping for good news that will ignite "growth" and promote stability. No one wants to be short for the growth "miracle" that Ben Bernanke might have up his sleeve. The media will make sure that you think one will be coming, too. Or why bother covering it?
That's just like last week, when people stopped selling or shorting futures and started buying because of the potential of good news coming from the pending Merkel-Sarkozy meeting. Traders didn't want to be short the market for the good news from "Markozy" that would ignite "growth" and promote stability. No one wanted to be betting against a potential for the "credit miracle" and the "sovereign solution." |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:47 am Post subject: |
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Let us live in interesting times:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/bonds-vs-stocks-bond-bond-futures/8/11/2011/id/36300
However, this game is getting very close to the end. The duration of the current long bond, the 4.375% due May 15, 2041 is 17.13 as a write. This means you will lose 47 months of coupon income should yields rise back toward the 4.75% level seen just this past February. If you think lending Uncle Sam money at 3.75% for thirty years when the 30-year TIPS breakeven rate of 2.65% says your real return is 110 basis points before taxes is a good idea, go ahead, I will not stop you. But at this point, I think you are going to get much better real returns out of stocks.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:59 am Post subject: |
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| Great article. I wouldn't touch the investment with a ten-foot pole. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 7:04 am Post subject: |
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BELOW: See.....
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-vegas-caruso-20110818,0,1733774.story
| Quote: | The outdoor venue would have more in common with Caruso's Grove shopping center in Los Angeles than it would with hermetically sealed casinos. City leaders hope the Linq with its bars, restaurants and stores will become a destination with special appeal to the gambling mecca's growing Gen X and Gen Y clientele.
"There are millions of people walking around the sidewalk in Vegas," Caruso said, "but they have nowhere to go except inside." |
In the face of 105d summers.....daring young man.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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Like I wrote earlier today: "....left in the dust."
This Is a Bad Rally
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
6/15/2010 2:51 PM EDT
| Quote: | We got a real, hated, one-way market on our hands.
We can catch this rally, but no one trusts it because we all know that every bit of today's news is bad.
The Empire Manufacturing report shows no hiring. Best Buy (BBY - commentary - Trade Now) shows no confidence in discretionary purchases, particularly TVs; the housing confidence numbers can be interpreted as a crash in the making. Meanwhile, Congress is bashing one of the few industries that's hiring: the oil drillers, one of our nation's most robust businesses. Could it be more clear that the House wants to crush it?
Financial regulation? The stories say that the Congress is going to throw all the investment-banking business to overseas rivals such as Barclays (BCS - commentary - Trade Now) and Deutsche Bank (DB - commentary - Trade Now), which is exactly what happens if Sen. Blanche Lincoln wins on the so-called swaps-desk issue. Our banks won't be able to compete. It's not a disaster, but if the articles are right -- and I don't believe they are -- you can chop earnings estimates by 20%. The stocks have fallen more but so what. It's not good.
Plus, overseas it seems more and more likely that Greece is going to default, which conceivably could roll back every bit of the ground Europe has made up.
Ugly, horrible, bad news.
Yet we rally. Good euro. Whatever.
You know what? I call this a bad rally. It is a bad rally because it is a rally of people being out of position. It is a rally where the shorts are scrambling furiously. It is a rally that stops the moment a blast of futures selling sweeps through, and all the buyers pull back or disappear. This rally is a mile wide and a quarter of an inch thin, and it can stop on a dime. |
Truth in Madness.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2010 8:54 am Post subject: |
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The poor Madman today....stumbling around in pre-dawn hours, almost incoherent in his scribblings on BP and his inside dope that it will never stop. The gooey depths--but that black crude has not killed the bottom-feeders. And all Cramer's autonomic purchases last week are up and getting upper.
Certainly worked on me...and I even have euro-profits from the last couple weeks. Didn't even wanna look at the ticker this morning. But didn't give up either.
Nobody wants to buy what they were dying to buy last month (eg Ford) and nobody wants to give BP any credit--even though they're only now allowed to the level of risk necessary to challenge their fate. For too long a fix was just assumed. Even the White House getting bearish and trying to run ahead of the damage.
Of course it's all a mirage. --Until it's too late. Go Cananda!
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Fri May 28, 2010 10:05 am Post subject: |
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Things have gotten so busy that I almost missed the Memorial Day Weekend BBQ. 
There's been too much technical damage done this month and it's going to take a while before the DJIA can convincingly break above 11,000 - unlike the corrections and subsequent rallies to new highs that we've been experiencing in this bull market thus far. I'm looking for a 50% to 66.7% retracement and then another correction, but of course, my views would adjust depending on the future strength of this bounce. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu May 27, 2010 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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They're gonna run it up tomorrow 'cause me and Diesel got a barbecue to get to...in Houston. Isn't that right, Master H.?
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smile
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| Posted: Thu May 27, 2010 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| rffrydr wrote: | Ah yes, the last but not the least.... that illustrious bottom caller of old, my hero and market saint,... Madman Jimmy Cramer:
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_jcblog/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10768771.html
| Code: | | Sorry, Doug, I Don't Buy It |
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/27/2010 11:08 AM EDT
| Quote: |
I'm not buying into the long-term positives piece that Doug Kass has posted this morning.
Random musings: What are we doing with our cash at Action Alerts PLUS? We bought the weakness the other day and we have a healthy pile of cash, but we aren't thrilled with the near term. But we buy for a longer term, so we are willing to see this thing through despite these contra thoughts. |
And to think, he penned that staring in the face of a 23 handle on the futures?! Make no mistake, the Madman is a seer. And, as the epilogue shows and I can testify, he was buying his hardest when he needed it most, the last couple days. And it wasn't just Vodaphone.
We'll see. Time is not even young. I'm pricing in a TopKill and consensus Korea. Failure there and its a big big pie in the face. I know the Madman's path too well.
I fortunately had a little more space: Took a stab at that first deep capitulation with an outright index buy which I'll probably have to exit tomorrow just to save face. 50dmva But I'll be looking to get back in on first sign.
I "outperformed"--where's my bonus?
As I said, time is not even early yet. Cramer's job demand madness. But nothing fires the heart more than hearing that old Cramer Bell ring.  |
________
Congrats on the outperformance.
Sorry to cut up your well penned post, but I wanted to isolate a couple of salient thoughts of yours.
I think many of us out here see what is going on - a technical over sold bounce followed by a little help from scared bears short covering. The funny thing is nothing has changed regarding the issue which started the slide in. We just feel better - not very inspirational to those who continue to pull out of equities big time. I'm glad the traders are feeling better about accepting more risk at these levels. All it took was for China to say we are not selling the Euro... Cramer probably thinking to himself - "they have no idea... no idea" as the market begins to pull away from the station. I'm with him on that... if the data supports a move higher that is a horse of a different color.
If they run up tomorrow absent any real change I will be surprised. Maybe CNBC can re-run some of the footage of the Greece riots like they did during the flash crash and start another panic. Way to go CNBC - thanks for that live coverage and the fear it generated. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu May 27, 2010 1:16 pm Post subject: |
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Ah yes, the last but not the least.... that illustrious bottom caller of old, my hero and market saint,... Madman Jimmy Cramer:
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_jcblog/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10768771.html
| Code: | | Sorry, Doug, I Don't Buy It |
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/27/2010 11:08 AM EDT
| Quote: |
I'm not buying into the long-term positives piece that Doug Kass has posted this morning. Let's take them point by point:
Investors replace renters: Nah, I see nothing but renters, and the "Flash Crash" only exacerbated this. The regular person and the mutual funds that are the repositories of their funds aren't committing money like they did. Not only that, but the individuals aren't even opening accounts anymore.
Fear is the friend of the rationale buyer: That's fine if the fear keeps the person in the game but with a big cash position. It is not fine if the individual has left entirely. It is true that allocations to equities are low, but why should they be larger? They have been horrible returners.
Emotional markets create opportunity: Doug says that emotionalism is replacing a look at the fundamentals. It isn't emotionalism, it is ETFs. Stocks are commodities, hostage to the S&P and sector ETFs. Fundamental research has never meant less to stocks, and it means less and less each day.
Stronger U.S. growth prospects: Here I agree, but I think they weren't as strong as they were a month ago, and there is a huge reliance on European sales for many companies. The IMF is mandating austerity and it is happening. That's not good for sales or for our GDP.
Rising equity risk premium provides good entry point. I think a good entry point will be after the collapse of a European country's bonds or some large European banks. That will give us a panic low to buy on. We can buy ahead of Europe doing the right thing, but I have to be skeptical so far. Remember, "Trichet to European Banks: Drop Dead."
S&P profits intact. I now think that S&P estimates are too high -- way too high -- because of the strong dollar and a weak Europe and a Chinese market that still isn't stimulating enough. I don't think that $83-$85 a share can be done. I also think that big firms like Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Trade Now) and Qualcomm (QCOM - commentary - Trade Now) -- admittedly poor executers -- have already made it clear that the numbers are too high.
I don't hate the market. But I don't like it either. I keep emphasizing accidental-high yielders because I think we need protection from the market. I agree with Sen. Ted Kaufman from Delaware that the market's broken. I see the people leaving in droves. They think it is rigged by the quants. I don't think "rigged" is the right word, but I sure agree with the sentiment.
I want to see some resolution to Europe before I change my cautious view, because I believe you could see Dow 8260 if Trichet doesn't get on board and fix things. Otherwise, I see downside to Dow 9500 that would also be a better entry point. Unless you have accidental high-yielders or companies that have special situations (Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now)) going for them, I agree with the previous Kass -- the one where the machines are killing us . And I can't change that. Not now. Hopefully not ever.
Random musings: What are we doing with our cash at Action Alerts PLUS? We bought the weakness the other day and we have a healthy pile of cash, but we aren't thrilled with the near term. But we buy for a longer term, so we are willing to see this thing through despite these contra thoughts. |
And to think, he penned that staring in the face of a 23 handle on the futures?! Make no mistake, the Madman is a seer. And, as the epilogue shows and I can testify, he was buying his hardest when he needed it most, the last couple days. And it wasn't just Vodaphone.
But what an interesting metamorphosis went through: the normal exuberance, denial, capitulation; then a strange feigning Madness facing down the insanity, then, the vet that he is, an almost autonomic buying focus right up to and in what I'm calling the capitulation above.
We'll see. Time is not even young. I'm pricing in a TopKill and consensus Korea. Failure there and its a big big pie in the face. I know the Madman's path too well. Nothing like a one-trillion dollar cavalry getting shot down to break your spirit. Snatching away sudden wealth just may be the toughest test market issue. Maybe it's a lost decade with dot-boom thrown in for fun.
I fortunately had a little more space: profit taking (mexico, ireland, HYG) delta call hedged on bank exposure, good nest egg in mortgage (thank you TCW for my being wrong), the hedge-fund cocoon of BK court, good euro yielders which I was able to more than double-up on lucky flash crash (with more (the worst kind) of that pain to come) and some buying with option selling at 40 VIX--which makes up for alot of mistakes. Took a stab at that first deep capitulation with an outright index buy which I'll probably have to exit tomorrow just to save face. 50dmva But I'll be looking to get back in on first sign.
Still felt the spike: Got caught out badly fully leveraged 150% into IYR --but that too proved its own blessing in disguise:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=IYR&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC
I "outperformed"--where's my bonus? How many out there hedge the SuperTax and Euromonster with CMBS?! But the one week leveraged 20% gain and nosebleed dividend padded that outperformance--and opened a window as to why this wasn't '08 redux.
As I said, time is not even early yet. Cramer's job demand madness. But nothing fires the heart more than hearing that old Cramer Bell ring.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 7:45 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | “This is a crisis not to waste,” Henrikson, 62, told analysts on a May 29 conference call last year. “We are extending our lead and we have the opportunity to do so and shame on us if we don’t.” Henrikson declined to be interviewed yesterday, said Christopher Breslin, a MetLife spokesman. |
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