 |
|
| Author |
Brazil Replies |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
 Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:13 am Post subject: |
 |
|
Gross, condemning iberia, goes to their own backyard, Brazil. 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47074259
7% off the Real and a government that taxes foreign investment...that ain't no Euro, Bill.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 6:08 am Post subject: |
|
|
Buy american:
Latin America: after the party
| Quote: | It would be unusual for Latin Americans not to join a party. The region participated fully in the global rally in equities since the start of the year. Even crippled Venezuelan stocks leapt to their feet to the tune of 70 per cent. From the lows last October, the MSCI Latin America index is now up by a quarter. Latam investors have seen some good times before, of course. The nine previous rallies during the past decade averaged a dance floor-clearing 60 per cent and lasted 26 weeks, notes Citigroup.
Normally, though, these fun times would be followed by a 20 per cent or so correction before the next surge upward. And bulls on Latin American stocks reckon that there are no overwhelming reasons why this cycle should not continue. For starters, valuations look supportive. Brazil, for example, has a price/earnings to growth (peg) ratio of about one and is trading at a 30-odd per cent discount to price to 10-year average earnings per share, according to Citi data. The region overall is also cheap relative to history on a price/book value basis.
That said, for the first time in years Latin American investors are not feeling universally optimistic. Understandably, too. Net earnings actually fell across the whole region during the fourth quarter of last year, for the second quarter in a row. More companies missed profit forecasts than hit them. If investors are not worrying about strong domestic currencies or nearing the end of the commodity supercycle, they fret about excessive bank lending and credit quality.
But perhaps the biggest potential threat to returns in the region is that western markets start to throw a better party themselves. If America’s recovery continues, for example, and interest rates begin to normalise, investors may decide the S&P 500 is a better vantage point from which to watch, say, China’s slowdown. Mexico would cheer a US recovery. But the rest will finally learn how self-sustaining the Latam transformation has really been. |
--FT
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11723
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:19 am Post subject: |
|
|
I think you can give (almost universally reviled at the time) Lula a great deal of credit on this (need only compare Venezuala) and it's the investment I wanted and am still kicking myself for not being in. Not a big fan now; but cannot be bearish Brazil. Here's where we stand:
Brazil: shedding the bubble wrap
| Quote: |
Pity the poor emerging market fund manager. OK, not poor exactly – GLG’s Greg Coffey once allegedly swatted away a $250m retainer like a blow fly. But deep down, many wonder how much credit they can really take for their emerging markets successes. Take Brazil. Were managers rewarded with a quintupling of its stock market over the last decade because they cleverly spotted structural reforms? Or were they simply lucky to invest in Brazil during a period of falling global interest rates and the mother of all commodity booms?
They will never know. What can be said, however, is that the amazing set of circumstances that helped many emerging markets to prosper may be nearing the end.
Brazil’s gross domestic product grew just 2.7 per cent last year, its second-worst performance in almost a decade. Only by pumping the economy in the fourth quarter (aided by a 275 basis point cut in benchmark interest rates by the central bank since July) did the newish government avoid presiding over a technical recession.
All of which is taking the fizz out of stocks. The local Bovespa index is flat over 12 months and, after leaping about like float dancers during carnival, many of Brazil’s biggest stocks, such as Vale, PDG Realty and Itau Unibanco, are roughly where they were four years ago. Petrobras shares are the same price now as at the end of 2005.
And things may get tougher. Brazil’s economy remains exposed to a strong currency and about 15 per cent of its exports would be directly affected by any slowdown in China.
The liquidity bubble (credit growth is 20 per cent per annum) that banks are surfing will not last forever. The biggest risk, however, is that the zero returns available in the west normalise, making risky emerging market bets less attractive. It’s time for Brazil to deliver, sans bubble. |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11723
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11723
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11723
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 1:02 am Post subject: |
|
|
Morningstar on Petrobras' 4Q earnings.
| Quote: | | Despite domestic market price increases, Petrobras' PBR downstream losses accelerated in the fourth quarter, more than offsetting the benefit of higher oil prices. While Petrobras' oil price realizations rose nearly 30%, company-level EBITDA actually fell, implying that higher oil prices are actually hurting the company. We think the most recent results provide another reminder for investors that despite alluring growth prospects, Petrobras remains an integrated company and not a pure-play exploration and production firm. E&P income rose to BRL 10.3 billion from BRL 7.8 billion a year before. However, refining losses of BRL 4.4 bil lion, compared with gains of BRL 1.4 billion last year, more than offset those gains. Even more concerning, the loss in the fourth quarter surpassed that of the third quarter (BRL 3.2 billion) despite the benefit of higher product prices. As a result, losses are likely to continue until oil prices fall substantially or product prices increase dramatically, neither of which is likely. Additionally, full-year domestic oil production volumes of 2,022 thousand barrels per day fell short of guidance while registering year-over-year growth of a little less than 1%. Total domestic production increased 1.7% thanks to higher natural gas volumes. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11723
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 5:01 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Morningstar's update on PBR.
| Quote: | | As we expected, Petrobras' PBR full-year domestic oil production fell short of management's guidance of 2,100 thousand barrels per day (plus or minus 2.5%), finishing the year at 2,022 mb/d, resulting in growth of 0.9% from 2010. The cause of the shortfall was primarily excessive planned and unplanned downtime for maintenance on fields in the Campos Basin and not related to the prolific presalt fields in the Santos Basin. However, we think the guidance miss in the early stages of a decade-long plan raises concerns about Petrobras' ability to achieve production targets. That being said, we hesitate to draw too many conclusions from one year. We think the truer test of Petrobras' ability to execute will come in 2012, when it looks to bring on line 400 mb/d of produc tion capacity. Inability to achieve 2012 targets would elevate the level of execution risk for the company's aggressive production targets through 2020, in our opinion. Through the first nine months of this year, downtime had reduced annual production by 44 mb/d. While October production was similarly affected by unplanned downtime, production growth accelerated in November and December with the return of volumes affected by maintenance and the startup of new platforms in the Jubarte and Marlim Sul fields. Despite these additions though, Petrobras failed to reach its expected daily production of 2,100 mb/d in December, instead averaging 2,084 mb/d during the month. It is also unlikely Petrobras exited the year producing 2,200 mb/d as it previously expected, though we will have to wait for the earnings release and conference call for confirmation. Full-year total production averaged 2,621 mb/d, a 1.5% increase from 2010. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11723
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 12:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Morningstar on PBR's 3Q earnings
| Quote: | | Petrobras' PBR net income for the third quarter sank 26% to BRL 6.3 billion from BRL 8.6 billion a year earlier as downstream losses and net financial expenses more than offset increased exploration and production income. As with the second quarter of this year, higher oil prices continued to produce mixed results for Petrobras. The near 50% surge in international oil prices during the period resulted in E&P income rising to BRL 10.3 billion from BRL 6.9 billion a year earlier. However, the higher oil prices hurt the refining business, which produced a loss of BRL 3.2 billion during the quarter compared with income of BRL 1.3 billion a year earlier. This follows a loss of BRL 2.3 billion in the second quarter of this year. As a result, third-quarter EBITDA increased only 13% to BRL 16.7 billion from BRL 14.7 billion a year earlier despite the rise in oil prices. Petrobras recently announced a modest increase in diesel (2%) and gasoline (10%) prices, which should help to stem losses going forward, but with international oil prices above $100 a barrel, we think the refining segment could continue to report losses. As a result, the benefit of Petrobras' oil-dominant production portfolio will continue to be somewhat negated by its downstream exposure. While noncash, Petrobras recorded a net financial expense of BRL 5.3 billion due to the effect of the real's depreciation on U.S. dollar-denominated debt. This stands in sharp contrast to the second quarter, when Petrobras posted a BRL 2.9 billion gain that greatly benefited earnings. Domestic production for the quarter rose slightly to 2,334 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day from 2,324 mboe/d last year. Year to date, Petrobras has produced 2,363 mboe/d compared with 2,322 mboe/d last year. Oil production is only up marginally year to date at 2,013 mb/d from 1,995 mb/d last year as natural field decline and maintenance limited growth. Oil production in the third quarter was particularly weak, falling to 1,978 mb/d from 1,991 mb/d a year earlier and 2,018 mb/d in the second quarter as planned and unplanned maintenance took a toll on volumes. As a result of its year-to-date performance, we do not expect Petrobras to achieve full-year guidance of 2,100 mb/d (plus or minus 2.5%). Its stated goal of peak production of 2,250 mb/d by year-end may not be achievable either. Petrobras did raise presalt production to 135,000 boe/d in September, which is encouraging. However, given the overall production declines during the quarter and the likely guidance miss, we wonder about execution in the other parts of the portfolio. T he next few quarters for Petrobras could be critical as it looks to put recent maintenance issues behind it and start delivering on its previous growth projections. Otherwise, concerns about execution risk are likely to grow. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2011 9:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: | Central bankers around the world must be looking at Brazil with mixed emotions. The Central Bank of Brazil’s policy interest rate cut – from 12.5 to 12 per cent – inspires admiration, fear and jealousy.
The admiration is for continuing boldness. The central bank is bravely responding to the sudden deterioration in the global economic environment. If the global summer soft patch ends soon, or if Brazilian inflation starts to rise again, the bank will look foolish. But the slowdown bet looks good, if Thursday’s releases of surveys of manufacturing sentiment are any indicator: at recessionary levels in the UK and the lowest in two years in the eurozone.
The Brazilians are also admirable in their continuing battle against the country’s now fading tradition of high inflation. Even after the cut, the overnight rate is still around 5 percentage points higher than the inflation rate. That real rate is roughly zero in India, China, Russia and Japan and negative in the US, eurozone and UK.
But the Brazilian cut sets two frightening precedents. First: political weakness. The crisis has made central bankers much more political, but in most countries they have the upper hand over politicians and regulators. In Brazil, it looks like the bank has yielded to pressure from the government to ease up. Second: policy impotence. The Brazilian central bank has proved no better than its peers at keeping inflation down and growth balanced and high. The rate cut is in part an admission that high rates have pushed up the currency and hurt exporters.
At least the Brazilians have room to manoeuvre. In almost every other country, additional monetary stimulus would be likely to do nothing more than blow dangerous financial bubbles. Central bankers can be excused for feeling jealous of the Brazilians’ freedom.
|
E-mail the Lex team in confidence at lex@ft.com
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:08 pm Post subject: |
|
|
They did litterally "fall out of bed"...but aug 9 lows still below.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EWZ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p11505607200
Hard to believe this stuff won't go on for years on momentum alone:
http://www.economist.com/node/18712379
(Interesting that they see this boom as "Japan II)
| Quote: | | Odebrecht, the Brazilian firm building the railway, recently flew your correspondent to Salgueiro, where its two coast-bound branches meet. The line’s 3m concrete sleepers are being cast there, and the ballast on which they will lie is quarried nearby. Paulo Falcão, the project director, is preoccupied with a novel problem for the north-east: a labour shortage. Even though word of the grand projects dotted around the north-east is attracting workers from all over the country, the demand is such that Odebrecht is training everyone from carpenters and bricklayers to truck drivers and forklift operators itself. Some have no previous construction experience. A fifth of the employees at Salgueiro are women. |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11723
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11723
Location: Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
Morningstar on Petrobras' 2Q earnings:
| Quote: | | Petrobras PBR reported second-quarter net income of BRL 10,942 million compared with BRL 8,295 million for the same period last year thanks to higher oil prices and improved financial results. Reflecting the benefit of higher oil prices, which offset higher costs, exploration and production earnings rose 38% to BRL 10,953 million. Domestic production volumes were only slightly higher for the quarter, rising a little more than 1% from the year before, but were 2% higher through the first half of the year compared with 2010. However, higher oil prices also resulted in the refining and marketing segment posting its second consecutive quarterly loss, highlighting one of our preliminary concerns about Petrobras' downstream investment plans. Refining and marketing posted a loss of BRL 2,280 million compared with losses of BRL 108 million in the second quarter last year and BRL 95 million in the first quarter of this year. We would expect that as long as oil prices continue to move higher, Petrobras' downstream segment will suffer. However, the company may have found some relief, if only temporarily, from the recent fall in oil prices. Also, financial results of BRL 2,895 million thanks to foreign exchange gains on dollar-dominated debt greatly benefited earnings. On a positive note, the company reported the Lula pilot project averaged more than 36 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in May, Petrobras' highest ever production from a single well. We believe this demonstrates the potential of Petrobras' presalt resources, and we look forward to additional disclosures from Petrobras along the lines of some of its partners in the area. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16929
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:42 am Post subject: |
|
|
Santander surprises with provisions against Brazil 
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
