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rffrydr
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 Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:53 am Post subject: BUFFETT |
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Okay, you wanted it Henry, I'm going to strart throwing my 2cents in on this board. Remember, it's all, IMHO.
Warren Buffett's record speaks for itself--but what it says is deceptively simple. What he's actually done is far less basic than we believe.
Don't forget this guy's called "The Wizard of Ohmaha." Yes, he's a plain-talking, plain shootin' ol' coot from the plains--but what he actually does is anything but "basic," or "value-oriented" in the way the full-color glossy brokerage PR we all get with our first account.
Buffett is renown for a great many things underscoring a basic sense of "valuation"--the midwestern college student salespitches being the latest. But you'll notice the older he gets the less "value" really has to do with his success. Whatever elese Warren Buffet is, BH is nothing without INSURANCE AND COKE.
He was buying this sugar water in 96 with PE through the roof. Meanwhile Microsoft et. al. was dismissed as so much snake oil. If I'm not mistaken Buffet didn't buy his first tech company til well after that bubble and that was really just insider deal between his ol' buddy--nepotism in a word. The all-wise WB COMPLETELY missed the biggest commercial revolution of our age. Perhaps he understood the experience of the railroads at the turn of the century or Ford's five BKs before getting the Model T right (which wasn't about cars), and in that, should be extolled, I suppose--not by The Street.
There are a hundred colas and it's been scientifically shown that what we taste is the can! PE's are commonly DOUBLE the SP. Where's the "value" in this? The "value" is precisely that: What we taste is the can. And the "we" in this sentence is the world. And what a brand Coke is! The company which made a profit under Hitler and brought us our modern notion of Santa Clause, the company selling to north and south during the Vietnam war and the worst kept "secret (recipe) in the world, is the non plus ultra of brands. Where is the value? The value is "myth"!
"Mutual of Omaha is people, people you know you can trust." There's something about the the midwest and Insurance. Probably something to do with strong moral fibre matched only by an appetite for risk in their grain growing hermitage that would make a riverboat gambler blush (hey, that expression came from the Mississippi--point!). What does this industry sell? what is it's "product"? Fear. Statistically parsed and geographically spread it's fear we pay for in that 100 shares of GenRE. Where's the "value"?-- what does the "Value Investor" buy. The value is "fear."
And lastly, you can't be a "wizard" unless you are old. Waren's old, and the "Rich get Richer." How? Not in value investing. In "value" stocks paying dividends and dividends compounding. This is called the "majic" of compounding. As we find out in the newspaper obits, it has made many a depression-era spend-thrift rich. In that way, WB truely is, a "wizard."
I like and admire Warren Buffet. But what does he really tell us, the market speculators, the news-letter subscribers? I may also note there are "investments" you can make as billionaire that I'm just never going to pull off. I can't buy the Board. As far as I'm concerned, WB is head-and-shoulders above the rest and that's exactly where he should stay.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:07 am Post subject: |
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Buffett shopping in Japan...he clearly thinks he's missed the best opportunities here. And, after his europe trip, still to timid over there. His quote today is a tepid: "in a couple years..."
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 2:12 pm Post subject: |
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Buffett's latest musings:
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Buffett not interested in European banks: report
(Reuters) - Warren Buffett, often mentioned as a potential savior for troubled European banks, said on Monday that he has no interest at the moment in investing in the sector, and that there is what amounts to a partial run on Europe.
The legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE:BRK-A) chief executive, in a CNBC interview, said he expects Europe's economy to have improved 10 years from now, but getting there would be difficult.
Buffett, who put $5 billion into Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) earlier this year, comes up whenever there is talk of a large European bank needing to raise capital, particularly in the current environment of writedowns on sovereign debt.
But he told CNBC that he would need to understand those banks better before investing in them, and that he has not yet seen an investment opportunity there in which he wants to take part.
In a wide-ranging interview, Buffett said he expects that Republican Mitt Romney will be his party's nominee for president in next year's U.S. election. Buffett has recently been raising funds for President Barack Obama.
He also reiterated his position that the economy will improve when the housing market turns around. That turn will come, he said, when the country starts creating more households than houses.
Berkshire has a number of housing-related businesses, including operations in carpet and brick, that he has said are doing as poorly as ever in the current environment. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:41 am Post subject: |
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It's not an "elephant"...it's a shadow. Allegory of the cave. There is no "curve" other than demographics--and markets don't trade on those time horizons.
Bazooka failed Paulson, I don't see why investors still find solace in that. France is not going to fall into the sea. It'll be here long after all of us fade to dust. That should be where the faith lies.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:20 am Post subject: |
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I've come a long way since that first post...like most other who stay in these markets for a long time. There's a premium worth paying for if only in teh SLOW moves. Warren walking the floor two fridays ago helped make the turn. Better than Hank here, there, by a damn shot.
The trader in me says he gets punished for his "derivatives" position. This oughtta be enough of that, fingers crossed.
Listening to his interview with Charlie Rose, he tells how the day he was born marked the "all-time" high in the Dow. He's been managing his "P's and Q's" ever since. Destiny 
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2011 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on Berkshire's latest strategic move:
| Quote: | | This morning Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A BRK.B announced that it had hired a second investment manager, Ted Weschler, who will join the company in early 2012. Along with Todd Combs, who was hired in 2010, the two investment managers will each have responsibility for a segment of Berkshire's present equity holdings. As in the past, this announcement comes with the caveat that Warren Buffett will continue to manage most of the funds until his retirement. After Buffett no longer serves as CEO, Combs and Weschler, with the possible addition of a third manager, will be responsible for the entire equity and debt portfolio at Berkshire. Until then, we expect Weschler, similar to Combs, will have a limited impact on the aggregate portfolio since such a large portion of the investments are in very long-term legacy holdings, which are probably untouchable. We are pleased to see Berkshire add additional transparency to its succession plans, as we believe this is one of the biggest overhangs on the company and its stock price. While it seems that Berkshire has now, for the most part, clearly delineated its plans for passing on the investment portfolio, we would like the company to be more explicit about its plans for executive succession, given that both of its primary managers are octogenarians. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:13 pm Post subject: |
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I said that the Buffett's last move would be to sell his own good name. Looks like I'm back in the running.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 1:36 pm Post subject: |
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Day started with Buffet defending the country against S&P...ends with defending himself. He like to say he still "felt" he was triple-A, now they sent him another downgrade just for good measure.
I'm no big Buffett fan, but I hate to see this play out.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/08/08/647111/the-nexus-pain-in-store-massacre/
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2011 11:16 am Post subject: |
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Agree with rffrydr on this. More from Morningstar:
| Quote: | | In a surprising announcement, Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A BRK.B said Wednesday that David Sokol, chairman of MidAmerican Energy and chairman and CEO of NetJets, and the presumed heir apparent to Warren Buffett's CEO position, has resigned. Considering the concern for some time about the longevity of Buffett and managing partner Charlie Munger, both octogenarians, as well as the lack of full disclosure about Berkshire's succession planning, Sokol's resignation creates even more uncertainty for the firm. If that weren't enough, Buffett's disclosure that Sokol had purchased upward of $10 million worth of Lubrizol LZ common stock before pitching an acquisition of the firm to Buffett raises serious questions about Berkshire's internal controls and tarnishes to some extent the firm's legacy of strong ethical behavior. It wasn't even nine months ago that Buffett was calling on his managers to "zealously guard Berkshire's reputation." In his biennial letter to Berkshire's managers, Buffett said, "We can afford to lose money--even a lot of money. But we can't afford to lose reputation--even a shred of reputation." It looks as if Sokol didn't get the memo, because his purchase of Lubrizol shares in early January, while not necessarily illegal, does give the appearance of impropriety. With Berkshire paying $135 per share for Lubrizol earlier this month, Sokol probably made more than $3 million on the 96,000 shares he purchased at the start of the year. This was something that was likely to raise serious questions when Berkshire's proxy came out, potentially landing the story of how one of Berkshire's key lieutenants profited handsomely from Berkshire's purchase of Lubrizol on the front page of a national newspaper (something that Buffett had cautioned his managers to avoid on countless occasions). Perhaps this is why Buffett accepted Sokol's resignation, which was apparently his third attempt to leave Berkshire over the past couple of years. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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What does anyone really want or expect with this? You buy Berkshire for Buffett. What he's doing now is setting the course for some unseemly space of time post mortem and there's not much anyone can do about it because all the money will be spent. Like El Cid, Buffett will ride into the sunset...and sunrise after, propped up on his steed--dead.
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