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Bullish on Airlines (XAL Index)
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Author Bullish on Airlines (XAL Index)
YIELDSAFE
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Joined: 13 Apr 2006
Posts: 50
Location: SAN FRANCISCO

PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 1:24 pm    Post subject: Bullish on Airlines (XAL Index) Reply with quote

I believe the XAL Index (Airline Index) is due for a rebound rally within the next 4 weeks. During this rally, I would expect the XAL to reach at least 47 or more from its close of 44.65 on 8/11/06.

Based on my system, the sentiment and valuation of the XAL Index hit negative extremes on 8/11/06. Correspondingly, I have taken a long position in IYT at 75.54 on 8/14. Given the lack of pure plays on the XAL Index other than the XAL options and underlying stocks, I chose IYT as my vehicle of choice.

Long position: IYT
Entry Price: 75.54
Stoploss: 67.99
Time Stop: 4 weeks
Exit: Pending system signal
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Author Bullish on Airlines (XAL Index) Replies
F1sh7
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Joined: 20 Jul 2006
Posts: 34

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That was an impressive call, again, YieldSafe.

Nice job!
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YIELDSAFE
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Joined: 13 Apr 2006
Posts: 50
Location: SAN FRANCISCO

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:49 pm    Post subject: Re: Bullish on Airlines (XAL Index) Reply with quote

YIELDSAFE wrote:
I believe the XAL Index (Airline Index) is due for a rebound rally within the next 4 weeks. During this rally, I would expect the XAL to reach at least 47 or more from its close of 44.65 on 8/11/06.

Based on my system, the sentiment and valuation of the XAL Index hit negative extremes on 8/11/06. Correspondingly, I have taken a long position in IYT at 75.54 on 8/14. Given the lack of pure plays on the XAL Index other than the XAL options and underlying stocks, I chose IYT as my vehicle of choice.
Long position: IYT
Entry Price: 75.54
Stoploss: 67.99
Time Stop: 4 weeks
Exit: Pending system signal


As I forecasted on 8/14/06, the XAL Index would reach 47 or more within the time I frame mentioned. Today, the XAL Index stands at nearly 48. I have officially exited my long position in IYT at a price of 79.00 for a profit of 4.58% in two days.

Entry Price: 75.54 (8/14/06)
Exit Price: 79.00 (8/16/06)
% Profit: 4.58%

Other calls this year.
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2072
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1772
http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1702

www.yieldsafe.com
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YIELDSAFE
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Joined: 13 Apr 2006
Posts: 50
Location: SAN FRANCISCO

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 1:35 pm    Post subject: Re: Bullish on Airlines (XAL Index) Reply with quote

YIELDSAFE wrote:
I believe the XAL Index (Airline Index) is due for a rebound rally within the next 4 weeks. During this rally, I would expect the XAL to reach at least 47 or more from its close of 44.65 on 8/11/06.

Based on my system, the sentiment and valuation of the XAL Index hit negative extremes on 8/11/06. Correspondingly, I have taken a long position in IYT at 75.54 on 8/14. Given the lack of pure plays on the XAL Index other than the XAL options and underlying stocks, I chose IYT as my vehicle of choice.

Long position: IYT
Entry Price: 75.54
Stoploss: 67.99
Time Stop: 4 weeks
Exit: Pending system signal



Update on Equity Position on 8/15/06

XAL Index: 46.33
IYT: 76.80

Entry Price: 75.54
Stoploss: 67.99
Time Stop: 4 weeks
Exit: Pending system signal
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16445
Location: Sunny California

PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Daring dude.

Technicals sometime mask certain "cultural" qualities in the underlying price points along a line. In the Airlines, for instance, other than a breif consolidation mania in the 80's the Airlines have been a black hole for investor's money since the days of the Wright Brothers (no Ford).

To the extent it's a short-term oil trade... I like it Wink

Find an unhedged flyer if you can.
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