Business Week on INTC vs. AMD

[HenryTo]

Let's see if Intel can pull another rabbit out of the hat:

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_48/b3910050_mz011.htm

Historically, Intel has nearly always been able to deliver when they're backed into a corner - but whatever the case may be, this intense competition between Intel and AMD can only be good for businesses and consumers (unless you were an Intel investor, of course).

[cl001]

I bought AMD a few weeks back, it is doing very well. There was an article on Fortune and are very bully on AMD. I believe intc is in trouble and amd is going to chip away its market share piece by piece and amd stock is undervalued.

[gregf]

my understanding is that AMD has 2 fabs, Intel has 13. Fabs cost something on the order of 2B to build and are not next day sorts of affairs. My understanding is that AMD's fabs are to the wall, building more chips is going to be problematic, ie, growing earnings are going to be capped. Intel has a lot of dough to figure out how to catch AMD's latest chips. Also, AMD has only recently started making $ after losing money for the last several years.

I don't have a dog in this fight, but, I wouldn't bet against Intel,....

[cl001]

Well, both IBM and MOT used to have a lot of more fabs then intc, intc won the micro processor war by the technology leadership. Now the same is happening with AMD.
On the production side, if I remember correctly, AMD has manufactory agreements with ibm and umc to use their fabs if necessary.
IF intc can't catch up with AMD soon, its stock will be in big trouble. Currently INTC margin dropped to 54%, AMD is still rising at 40%. We have more rooms for AMD here.

[HenryTo]

Intel spills the beans on "Smithfield" and "Pressler" - the first dual core microprocessors from Intel.

http://www.anandtech.com/tradeshows/showdoc.aspx?i=2362

The initial dual core chip will come into the desktop market in the second quarter, while AMD will not release a dual core for the desktop market until the end of this year. Intel essentially has a six-month lead - which is a long time in the microprocessor world.

[gregf]

The 1st dual core from Intel is the 64-bit Itanium Montecito processor due out the end of this year.

[HenryTo]

Greg,

You mean the first 64-bit Itanium dual core will ship at the end of this year?

Intel currently has 15 dual-core projects going on, and Smithfield, the dual-core chip for the desktop market will arrive in the second quarter of this year:

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584_22-5594773.html

Apparently, Smithfield will be able to run 64-bit software as well. Moreover, MSFT will come out with a 64-bit version of Windows in April of this year.

[gregf]

Yes, I think

much of this info is supposed to be via Non-Disclosure Agreement only - hmmmm.
I work for a computer manufacturer, fwiw.

[HenryTo]

Hmmm... have you seen any of the benchmarks of the new dual core processors?

From the look of things, both Intel and AMD are definitely onto something here in terms of a performance leap. Combined with the fact that MSFT will be launching a 64-bit version of Windows in a couple of months, we may see an uptick in IT capital spending? What do you think, Greg?

[gregf]

Being in sales, I hope there's an uptick!

I'm in the enterprise segment - so, I am only selling 64-bit platforms. I don't pretend to be an IA32 server or desktop guru because I'm not.

I haven't seen any benchmarks released (because there ain't no boxes yet!), but, they're saying Montecito will be 2x what we have today with the single core Madison processors on a per-processor basis. Montecito is being designed by the former Alpha chip design team. A 4-way Madison is about 40,000 TPC per processor. Of course, as you scale up, that number moves down. The 64-way number is around 1-1.5M which works out to be about 20,000 TPC per proc.

Microsoft has been shipping a 64-bit version of windows for over a year on Itanium, fwiw. You're, I think, referring to a specific version for the 64-bit extensions - which, my understanding is there will be specific versions for AMD as well as INTC as they are not the same.

So, right now there's a lot of confusion over the 64-bit extensions stuff . I don't know of any ISV's that are going to the trouble to port a 32-bit app to take advantage of the 64-bit extensions specifically. It's expensive to move from 32-bit to 64-bit - if you want to do a 64-bit port you'd want to run on a box that's got 64-bit throughout. There is no comparison between what a fully 64-bit Itanium box can do overall and what any AMD or Xeon class system can do - Itanium rocks on overall system throughput.

Most customers who want 64-bit capabilities are running non-trivial workloads that are mission critical - that usually translates into a big iron UNIX box that's > 4 procs. While there have been numerous IA32 boxes with >4 procs, they've never been much on volume, as in noise level. I think most of the 8-way boxes are for bragging rights to be the big dog in the IA32 space, LOL. I believe the AMD Opteron is limited to 4 procs by it's architecture - there may be some future gens that go beyond 4, but, I don't follow that so closesly,...AMD is really, I believe, targeting the meat of the IA32 server market which is 4-proc boxes. These are the SQL and Exchange server platforms of choice and where the bulk of the business happens,....
JMHO.

[HenryTo]

Thanks for clearing all that up, Greg - I think!

On the subject of INTC vs. AMD, yet again, following is an article from Sudhian Media on AMD: From Clarity to Confusion: AMD’s Model System Needs to Go:

http://www.sudhian.com/showdocs.cfm?aid=655

I admit - I used to follow microprocessor news quite a bit and everything right now is just too confusing and too much to keep up with. It has continued to be the marketing that counts, more than ever. I remember when the Athlon first came out for AMD. They had a good chance to take market share away from Intel (which they did to some extent) and now the story of AMD being a true competitor is slowly fading away yet again.

The current "cream of the crop" desktop processors from AMD tops Intel's - but for how long? More important, how will AMD compete in the mobile market going forward?

[HenryTo]

INTC was up earlier in AH trading (about 2.3% or so) but is now flat. Tomorrow will be interesting, for sure.
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Associated Press
Intel Narrows 1Q Revenue Forecast
Thursday March 10, 5:01 pm ET
By Matthew Fordahl, AP Technology Writer
Intel Narrows First-Quarter Revenue Forecast, Says Gross Margins Exceeding Expectations

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- Intel Corp. narrowed its first-quarter sales forecast Thursday to the high end of its previous estimate and said gross margins were exceeding expectations largely because of lower startup costs associated with a new manufacturing technology.
Intel now expects first-quarter sales to be between $9.2 billion and $9.4 billion. In December, the company predicted revenue of between $8.8 billion and $9.4 billion. The company does not provide earnings guidance.

The new estimate exceeds Wall Street expectations. Analysts expect the company to earn 28 cents per share on sales of $9.15 billion, according to a survey by Thomson First Call.

Intel's gross margin -- the closely watched difference between sales and the cost of the products sold -- is expected to be about 57 percent, compared with the previous forecast of 55 percent plus or minus "a couple points."

Intel's strong financial performance continues even after it faced numerous product delays, outright cancellations and criticism for letting smaller rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. take the lead on some technological fronts.

That appears to be changing in 2005. Just a few months into the year, the maker of the Pentium 4 chip has released a number of processors that can address more memory than previous generations and maintain full compatibility with older software. AMD has been offering such a chip since 2003.

Intel and AMD also are in a race to release their first processors with two computing engines on a single chip. That's expected to improve performance when multiple programs are running on a system at once or when a single program is designed to take advantage of it.

Notebooks based on Intel's Centrino wireless technology also have seen strong acceptance by both businesses and consumers. AMD formally launched its Turion mobile processors on Thursday, though it's unclear how competitive the model will be against Centrino's long battery life.

Intel's updated forecast was released after the financial markets closed. Earlier, shares gained 1 cent, to finish at $24.85, in regular trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. In the extended session, they gained 59 cents, or 2.3 percent

Intel investor relations: http://www.intc.com

[HenryTo]

Intel to cut Pentium M prices on July 24th in response to AMD's rollout of the new Turion 64 mobile CPUs (by as much as a third on the high end ones):

http://www.digitimes.com/mobos/a20050314A7039.html

Given the fact that the dual core mobile processors from Intel won't be out until next year, it looks like that this year may be another tough time for Intel? Any thoughts?

[HenryTo]

A first glimpse at the new Dual Core INTC desktop chip:

http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx?i=2388

A hands down winner if one is always multi-tasking or need to encode media files. Official launch is sometime within the next couple of months.

[HenryTo]

Looks like another paper launch here but I think Intel will be stealing the thunder from AMD here unless AMD comes out with more than a paper launch sometime next week. Following article is from Tomshardware.com:
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First Intel dual-core PCs to ship on Monday

By Wolfgang Gruener, Senior Editor

April 15, 2005 - 19:48 EST

Santa Clara (IL) - Intel made it official on Friday: The company confirmed that system builders will start offering dual-core computers next week. The PCs will be based on the Pentium Extreme Edition 840 processor.

AMD won the Gigahertz race five years ago, so Intel apparently did not want to second with the dual-core introduction again. Intel's PR department announced in a surprising email that dual-core PCs will be shipping from OEMs on Monday, April 18. System builders participating in the launch will be Dell, Alienware and "a couple of others", according to the message.

Intel however defines this "launch" as consumers being able "to fulfill their PC orders starting". Accordingly, the official launch of the dual-core processors will not happen on Monday.

Intel did not provide further details. Monday's introductions are also likely to be limited to the high-end Pentium 4 Extreme Edition 840. Dell and Alienware already announced systems that integrate the processor. Pricing has not been officially unveiled yet, but Intel is reported to position its Extreme Edition at the very high end and around $1000 per processor - resulting in PC system pricing starting at about $3000. (THG)