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rffrydr
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 Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:59 am Post subject: |
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Nope.....I was righter than I knew:
http://detnews.com/article/20110824/AUTO01/108240442/1148/rss25
Wudda covered on the post below. Olympics loom larger and larger in china stock world--and you're not gonna get that out of your Magee or MBA.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2011 9:08 pm Post subject: |
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Yup...that was the low:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43586905
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2011 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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That oughtta about wrap it up for this "dreamer":
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-19/buffett-backed-byd-china-share-offer-raises-less-than-sought-219-million.html
50% down into a new offering BYD will not be one of the consolidated ones. Its electric tech will pay off in some way--if not in electric charged California. The subsidy termination should not be too hard on them either--the most of the last govt. money going to farmers for things we wouldn't really call cars. And we're still (OECD) talking 9% GDP in this "dreamland."
| Quote: | BYD’s share-sale experience isn’t unique. Prada SpA, the Milan-based luxury company, raised $2.14 billion by selling shares near the low end of its target in this year’s biggest Hong Kong initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter on June 17. Samsonite International SA, the luggage maker, fell 7.7 percent on June 16 in its Hong Kong debut amid a global stock market slump and concern China’s economy may cool.
BYD’s sales fell for 10 straight months through May amid slowing vehicle demand growth and rising competition, as carmakers including General Motors Co. and Nissan Motor Co. introduced cheaper models. China’s passenger-car sales fell for the first time in more than two years in May after the government ended tax incentives and subsidies. |
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Last edited by rffrydr on Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:36 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
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| Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 11:18 am Post subject: |
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For want of a few measly ticks I missed this one....file under "position trading."
BYD: a reversal of fortunes
Published: February 18 2011 15:01 | Last updated: February 18 2011 15:37
Backed by Buffett: but for how much longer? As the worst-performing stock last year on Hong Kong’s 40-strong China Enterprises Index, down 40 per cent, and the worst so far this year, down another 19, BYD may be testing the faith of even this legendarily long-term investor.
Friday’s disclosure from the Shenzhen-based automaker that it was cutting prices to revive flagging sales confirms a pretty stunning reversal of fortunes. In 2009, amid a general fervour for all things Chinese and consumer-focused, the purveyor of cheap sedans for second-tier cities (such as Chengdu and Wuhan) saw its shares soar 440 per cent. But last year’s appearance of chairman Wang Chuanfu’s in April on the steps of Los Angeles’ City Hall to announce BYD’s new US headquarters, flanked by Arnold Schwarzenegger, was the high watermark.
Mr Buffett, who bought 28 per cent of the Hong Kong stock through a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary at HK$8 a pop in September 2008, is still well ahead at today’s price of HK$33. A valuation that was once faintly ludicrous – 19 times book value in April 2010 – has fallen to 3.5 times, not far off the global average of 2.5. But the direction is worrying, nonetheless. In a recent nationwide Credit Suisse survey, just 3 per cent of consumers said their next car would be a BYD. The Sage of Omaha may be tempted to book profits.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Nov 16, 2010 8:15 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | ....The reason is that around 2005-2006 China decided that solar and particularly polysilicon was a great industry and they wanted to get big in it - real big. Even during late 2007 and early 08 when aggregate bank lending was tightening you could still get loans for solar companies to expand production into the teeth of an ugly downturn at the same time as China real estate CDS widened out horribly because that sector was cut off from lending onshore. The result was that *a lot* of solar capacity got built and margins in the industry went down. Capital intensive projects underwritten on 25% EBITDA margins realized 15% margins and the equity in many cases has not seen daylight since.
Its important to note here that policy lending ain't all bad: in Japan during its period of rapid growth from the 60s to the early 80s lending "window guidance" existed but was more organized: a lot of loans got printed but only to a select few who would duly create oligopolistic pricing and not cannibalize one another. Not bad for investors though really bad for consumers. Princes of the Yen has more. Ultimately policy lending impact on your book comes down to more how it gets done than anything else - it's always a form of redistribution one way or another.
So it caught TMM's ear recently when at a lunch they heard two friends in the special situations and PE business complain at length about how many battery company deals they were seeing.
- "How is it that all these guys already have half their cash lined up from state banks?"
- "Look at the margins - this stuff will be fine no matter how much of a muppet the promoter is."
Which makes TMM wonder: can the likes of BYD in Hong Kong survive the onslaught of a bunch of hyper-subsidized competitors? Sage of Omaha beware: the PBOC are not your friends. |
http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2010/11/policy-lending-may-not-be-your-friend.html
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:25 am Post subject: |
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Ouch...right after the big pep talk:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-26/buffett-backed-byd-s-third-quarter-profit-drops-as-sales-in-china-falter.html
The slowdown in chinese "autos" was presaged in consumer surveys (by western firms) but BYD was special. China's hold on rare earths and it current politicization will draw a bid but one shouldn't give up on a good idea if one thinks it could be a really really good idea (mine not Warren's  ).
| Quote: | Vehicle sales at BYD, 10 percent owned by Buffett’s Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc., slumped 25 percent in September to 33,085 vehicles even as rivals SAIC Motor Corp. and Dongfeng Motor Group Co. increased deliveries and China’s industrywide passenger-car sales to dealerships rose 19 percent. BYD’s deliveries dropped 19 percent in August.
“Most local brands suffered from the government policy tax revision,” Ricon Xia, a Hong Kong-based senior analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management, said before the earnings. BYD’s fourth quarter also “won’t be very strong,” he said.
The carmaker, founded by Chairman Wang Chuanfu, has said it may fail to meet a schedule for shipping electric cars to California. BYD may introduce its E6 electric cars in the U.S. next year, Henry Li, general manager of the company’s export division, said last month, delaying an earlier plan to begin deliveries this year.
Buffett’s Support
Berkshire Hathaway’s chairman Buffett affirmed his support for BYD last month when he visited the automaker in Shenzhen, saying it will be a leader in electric cars. Berkshire owns its stake in automaker through Des Moines, Iowa-based MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr
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Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 6:17 am Post subject: |
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The Dream is on track....but, what's this? Battery sales down?
http://www.detnews.com/article/20100315/AUTO01/3150372/1148/rss25
Can't step in front of that auto-story in china at this point. And the Mercedes combination (despite their cars getting literally copied) buys lots of street cred. We'll take another look on the US launch.
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rffrydr
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Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr
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