CAPITAL vs LABOR

[rffrydr]

Of course this the oldest and fundamental cyle when it comes to econmics--and it precisely because of this that the answers to questions of it's twists and turns cannot fully or finally be answered within its confines.

The ultimate direction will come, I think, from the greater worLd of politics and culture. While, doubtless, there are times when economics has held both within it's grip, i.e. the rise of japan in the 70's or, say, the french love of "hollyvooood." Ultimately, culture will decide.

Presently, in regards to the latest newsletter, we have the GM Chairman and his open "letter" to america. This may be dismissed as a Chrysler-like appeal for Washington to bail GM's fast ailing ass out (I, incidently bought their bonds a few weeks back) but it is framed in cultural terms, what we want as a society and how those values will (or can) be expressed our society's companies.

I would agree with you, Henry, that the american autos mark an ending in the cycle of cap vs labor. But I would say just the opposite. The Unions have been running GM for a long time: production has been set for at least these last years on employment balance rather to any regard for efficiency or profitability. GM and the american autos represent union power in its deaththroes. GM, for instance, allows for smoking on assembly lines and "ghost-workers." For christ's sake! the same company responsible for these guy's long-term (spiraling) health care!! The notion of an "economy" of the american auto has long-since collapsed under the weight of its own bloated worker. No amount of "offshore outsourcing" will save the Corvette (unlike the "american flyer" red wagon), captial and labor are bound by time, geography and scale. All things that "market-economies" don't handle well, if at all.

But yes, the cycle is turning, it is turning back in the direction of labor and it is turning exactly at the lowest rung in labor, where you would expect it to begin. The pinnacle of captial power is not GM but WalMart/Microsoft. The change is well underway. You mention the movies, the PR (Walmart now HAS to sponsor NPR, Katrina etc) on our side. But labor is reasserting itself where it wasn't supposed to exist: China.

Walmart doesn't site new manufacturing in coastal china anymore: good help is hard to find and even the assemblylines are not only not cheap anymore; they are beginning to cost. Agricultural reform, ironically price liberalization, is keeping more peasants on the farm and off the streets in Gunangzhou.

The first hint of this change was there for those who wanted to look 5 years ago when the 1billion plus dreamt cellphone distribution topped out at 250 million and China Mobile, the "darling" of "class A" shares went flatline. China now, as always, is bifurcated place, a land of those who can and those who will never be allowed to try. Those chinese who can make it work, make China the factory to the world, are in shorter supply than we imagine, and it's now becoming clear that limits are being pressed and costs going higher.

"Environmentalism" has come late and come by necessity in china. But it is now becoming a badge of western standards--a cultural marker. The proof is in the money: they are now hiring Vancouver companies to clean their water, for example. The most powerful symbol of all now driving China, the 2008 Olympics, is really all about acceptence, admittance, as western power--albeit a la japan! Can the transformation of labor from the country writing the greatest transformation of labor in the modern world be far behind?

It was in the concept of "shareholder" that chinese communism and western capitalism were united. Is there a more "communist" idea than this??? As capital has now found its resurgent power through this concept it has also, I think we are beginning to see, opened the door to its complement and opposite, labor.

And what of the "market," the ultimate driver of this capital investment. It takes more than a belief to fully exploit the labor/capital dynamic. It takes a complete infrastructure, all the little things that we in thw west now take for granted: the ability and right of transfer for real property, stable and fair legal framework for righting economic wrongs, a neighbor who wnats what you understand he wants etc. etc. etc. IN RE: Sachs vs. Soviet Empire

Take advertising (please!), the mother's milk of captialism, how much can you sell to those who can't read or write, what does "deoderant and tampons" mean to household without hot water?

It hasn't taken long for a generation of "little emporers" to appear in China. How much longer for a "fair and decent living."? Having a lot of poeple doesn't necessarily mean having and endless supply of labor. A means of production matching the modern needs of consumption I think will be self-limiting. --And come sooner than labor.

The pinacle for Capital in this cycle may have been marked by Microsoft and Yahoo selling out its represented western value of "free spreech" opening the door to cold Chinese cellblock for a few of its "customers." The reaction is already here (rembering Dow 1968-1982).

Next up: ROBOTS.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

"Scroogenomics": Martin Wolf now in the age-old fight with this Xmas card:

[rffrydr]

Retail staffing was almost scandalous this holiday season: lines, lines and more lines. And NO service. I did a test-drive and kid knew NOTHING about the vehicle. Without the discounts this level of staffing will be impossible to maintain.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

More signs of a pick-up in hiring:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703548604576037612752480904.html?mod=WSJ_article_MoreIn_Business

[rffrydr]

When good ain't good enough:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/25/world/europe/25germany.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

US employees finally gain the upper hand next year?
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Most workers are ready to look for new jobs in 2011

Jessica Dickler, staff writer, On Thursday December 23, 2010, 7:39 am EST
Employers watch out: Your workers can't wait to quit.

According to a recent survey by job-placement firm Manpower, 84% of employees plan to look for a new position in 2011. That's up from just 60% last year.

Most employees have sat tight through the recession, not even considering other jobs because so few firms were hiring. For the past few years, the Labor Department's quits rate, which serves as a barometer of workers' ability to change jobs, has hovered near an all-time low.

But after years of increased work and frozen compensation, "a lot of people will be looking because they're disappointed with their current jobs," said Paul Bernard, a veteran executive coach and career management advisor who runs his own firm.

Douglas Matthews, president and chief operating officer for Right Management, a division of Manpower, called the results "a wake-up call to management. ... This finding is more about employee dissatisfaction and discontent than projected turnover," he said.

Despite a disappointing jobs report last month, experts agree that the employment picture will likely improve going forward, although hiring will be slow.

"A lot of people who have jobs are considering looking for new work this year," said Charles Purdy, a career expert at Monster+HotJobs. "I don't know if we're going to see a huge uptick in the number of jobs, but I do think we'll see a huge surge in the number of people looking for work, even among people who are already employed."

Austin and Lauren will be two of them. (Both asked that their last names not be used.)

Austin has worked as the general manager for a small manufacturing company for six years, but he has his sights set on a job with the federal government.

"I am definitely ready to make a move now," he said. "I want to change because I feel that I would be more successful and have more challenges working in a Federal agency representing the interests of multiple private small businesses."

Austin has applied to positions at the Department of Commerce, Homeland Security and the State Department. But until hiring picks up, he is maintaining his current employment while campaigning for his next career in the New Year, or what he calls "maintaining and campaigning."

Lauren wants to leave the marketing position she landed soon after graduating in May. She said she feels lucky to have any job at all, "but it's definitely not what I expected."

"I'm currently in an environment where I'm not learning anything and am not challenged by any of my work," she said. "It just makes me feel like I'm wasting my time."

Even with less than a year of experience under her belt, Lauren plans to look for another opportunity in 2011. "What I'm hoping with the new year is that since most companies do their budgets around this time, they'll have room for new employees," she said.

But Bernard warns that they shouldn't leave their day jobs too soon. "People need to have realistic expectations," he cautioned. "It could still take 10 months to find a job."

[rffrydr]

Divide and conquer:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/20/business/20wages.html?_r=1&hp
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

The unions' drive to organize carwash workers in Los Angeles is heating up:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/07/business/07carwash.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

[rffrydr]

Oh brother:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/15/world/americas/15chinaperu.html?scp=1&sq=china%20mine%20peru&st=cse

[rffrydr]

Japanification: The next china boom?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-21/machines-replace-migrants-at-nissan-and-foxconn-as-chinese-wages-increase.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

There it is in Greece. Writ large. Old School:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/7689375/Greece-a-nation-at-war-with-itself.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Laugh now--but be prepared to laugh again. Even Greenspan says it could happen.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/23/156336/this-way-to-the-athens-stock-exchange/
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

"Shock and awe" at new NBA labor contract:


http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-heisler-all-stars13-2010feb13,0,6161636.column
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

And another mark-to-market set to bite the dust, pension underfunding:

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126601925904345403.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc

Unions threaten to abstain from 2010 elections. The Perot revolution lives.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

As old as....The Pope:


http://www.detnews.com/article/20100203/AUTO01/2030409/1148/rss25
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

It took a year and half but Businessweek zooms in on the Oracle-era labor "imput"--output.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_03/b4163032935448.htm

Key in all of this that a job returned will be an employee with disloyalty built in. If the economy goes large your turnover will go larger and all the higher-order corporate effects with it. I doubt that's in the spreadsheet.

For the last quarter-century now the dreaded "outsourcing" has put many, even those not outsource-able, on the back foot. It'll be interesting to see how this changes
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!