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Carnival Cruises (CCL) |
HenryTo
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 Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 2:43 am Post subject: Carnival Cruises (CCL) |
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Positive: The cruise industry isn't actually falling off a cliff.
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Analyst: Cruise trends are weak, but not dropping
Wednesday February 4, 3:21 pm ET
Analyst says survey shows that cruise trends are weak, but not getting much worse
NEW YORK (AP) -- A survey of December cruise trends showed that bookings and pricing trends remained weak but did not seem to be getting significantly worse, a Susquehanna Financial Group analyst said on Wednesday.
Robert LaFleur maintained "Positive" ratings on both companies. The survey of travel agents was conducted by SFG Research.
"Clearly, the economic and financial crisis that gained critical mass this past fall has consumers more wary of big ticket commitments like cruises, and the lines have had to respond to this by price incentives," the analyst said.
LaFleur noted the economic downturn is prompting cruise companies to rethink some long-standing practices. He cited Royal Caribbean's statement during its fourth-quarter conference call that the company would no longer follow its current strategy of slashing prices to whatever level necessary to fill every cabin.
"(Royal) would rather sail with some empty cabins than drop prices below economically sensible levels," LaFleur said.
On the positive side, LaFleur said lower fuel prices will benefit the companies and early reports are indicating that bookings picked up last month as "wave season" began. The three-month period of January through March is known as "wave season," when cruise bookings usually surge.
"At this point, even a non-disastrous wave season could be seen as a positive catalyst," LaFleur said.
He noted that both Miami-based companies have been slashing costs to cope with weaker revenue, particularly Royal Caribbean.
"(Royal) is also trading under a heavy cloud of insolvency risk," LaFleur said. "While it clearly has the more stressed balance sheet, the combination of financing guarantees, current liquidity, and still-meaningful operating cash flows should get them through."
In afternoon trading, Carnival Corp. shares fell 40 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $18.49, while shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. gained 6 cents to $6.80. |
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Carnival Cruises (CCL) Replies |
HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 6:27 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on CCL's latest 10-K filing and the impact of the Costa Concordia tragedy.
| Quote: | | Carnival CCL CUK released its 10-K filing, which was laden with additional information regarding costs due to the Costa Concordia tragedy earlier this month. While the company had originally conveyed that the loss of the ship would probably affect earnings by $0.11-$0.12 per share in 2012, we now have more color on insurance and other costs. The company expects to incur an additional $0.10 per share when including insurance and other incident-related costs (rebooking at lower prices would probably be included here). The company also revised its forecast for fuel expense for the year. On Dec. 20, Carnival expected the price of fuel per metric ton consumed for the first quarter and full yea r 2012 to be $652 and $650, respectively. Its new projection is $705 for the first quarter and $717 for the full year. Although Carnival has implemented a fuel hedging strategy, it is only for extreme swings in energy prices, which we do not believe includes the recent uptick the company is describing. Carnival did not provide updated guidance in its annual report, but we have done a back-of-the-envelope estimate of what a reasonable earnings per share forecast might be. The company did say it would provide revised 2012 earnings guidance in March, when it had a better handle on the financial impacts to its business of the Costa Concordia accident. Original guidance in December for 2012 indicated that Carnival expected EPS of $2.55-$2.85, which we believe implied a revised $2.43-$2.73 after the initial release regarding the $0.12 impact from the Costa Concordia accident. With an additional full-year impact of $0.10 per share due to Costa, along with a $0.30 impact due to high er fuel prices, we now would infer that earnings should be between $2.05-$2.34 for 2012. We have revised our estimate to $2.10, inside the bounds of this rough estimate. These changes have reduced our fair value estimate to $35 per share from a recently lowered $37. We remain heavyhearted that a bad event like the Concordia has happened to a good company like Carnival, and shares are bound to suffer in the near term as a result. The shares are trading at a healthy discount to our new fair value estimate, but we are concerned that the fallout from the Costa tragedy has not yet been completely quantified. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:12 am Post subject: |
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A "buy-back" stock...who'd a'thunk it!
They should just let the fuel costs swing...let the "free market" reign, despite spinning the bean-counter's heads!
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 11:53 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on CCL's 4Q results.
| Quote: | | Carnival CCL CUK announced fourth-quarter and full-year results that were in line with our expectations as well as consensus, reinforcing our favorable view of the firm's pricing power and ability to generate cash flow. Despite the decent quarter, our long-term valuation assumptions and fair value estimate are unchanged. Although we view the stock as undervalued and believe Carnival is fundamentally strong, we remain concerned that issues outside the company's control might put pressure on the stock in the near term. Management supported this thesis in its reiteration of concerns regarding geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as still inflated fuel pr ices (which were up 32% for the year and reduced earnings by $535 million, or $0.68 per share). In the fourth quarter, total revenue increased 6% year over year to $3.7 billion, helped by a 5.7% increase in the number of passengers carried and decent net revenue yield of 2.1% despite the difficult economic environment. Additionally, it appeared pricing remained stable in the period, with the net revenue yield per available passenger cruise day of $168.15 versus $164.74 in the year-ago period. However, Carnival's expenses remained inflated, putting a damper on any upside potential in the quarter. Net cruise costs per available berth day increased 5.7%, affected by fuel prices that increased 39% to $680 per metric ton, causing operating margins to fall to 8.1% from 9.8% in the fourth quarter a year ago. Carnival finally implemented a fuel derivative program in the quarter, which should help alleviate some earnings volatility from fuel prices going forward. While we were pleased that fourth-quarter earnings per share were in line with management's guidance of $0.26-$0.30, the company's forecast for the first quarter of 2012 includes net yields that increase 0.5%-1.5% with net cruise costs increasing 2.5%-3.5% (with expected EPS of $0.06-$0.10, down from $0.19 last year), implying that fuel is likely to hold back the full earnings potential of Carnival in at least the next quarter. We expect this to alleviate as 2012 progresses, as the company anticipates full-year net cruise costs to decline 2%-3%. In current dollars, Carnival forecast a net revenue yield decline of 0.5%-1.5%, but overall expects an increase in EPS of $2.55-$2.85, in line with our $2.74 estimate. We will revise our model to incorporate information from the conference call, but do not expect that our 2012 earnings estimate will change by much. We remain encouraged that cumulative advance bookings for 2012 are at a slightly higher price (even though with lower occupan cy) relative to the prior year. We remain excited about management's prudent plan to consistently return cash to shareholders. The company produced cash from operations of $3.8 billion in 2011; it could have easily funded its $2.7 billion capital investment program and used the excess cash flow to increase the quarterly dividend and buy back additional shares. At first glance, it appears that 2012 will generate additional free cash flow of $1.4 billion. This makes the stock compelling for income investors despite our near-term geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on CCL's 3Q results:
| Quote: | Near-Term Risks Abound, but Pricing Should Help Carnival's Profits if Fuel Remains Under Control
Carnival Corporation CCL announced third-quarter results that were ahead of our expectations as well as consensus, reinforcing our favorable view about the firm’s pricing power and ability to generate cash flow. Despite the solid quarter, our long-term valuation assumptions and fair value estimate remain unchanged. Although we view the stock as undervalued and believe the company fundamentally remains strong, we remain concerned that issues outside of the company's control might put pressure on the stock in the near term. Comments by company management supported this thesis, warning that geopolitical and economic uncertainty along with inflated energy costs may weigh on near-term profitability.
Revenue increased 14% year over year to $5.0 billion, driven by a 4.8% increase in the number of passengers carried and a much better than expected net revenue yield of 7.2%. Although demand was strong, as indicated by pricing, Carnival's expenses remained inflated. Net cruise costs per available berth day increased 14.4%, which verifies that Carnival is not able to earn its full potential when energy prices remain high. Fuel prices increased 45% to $686 per metric ton, causing operating margins to fall to 28%, compared to 32% in the third quarter a year ago. Carnival still does not hedge against fuel, although management is planning on implementing a derivative strategy to insure against extreme swings in energy prices, which should alleviate some volatility in earnings going forward.
We note that although third-quarter earnings beat the high end of management's estimates ($1.60-$1.64) by $0.05, the full-year estimate was trimmed to the lower end of its originally forecasted range ($2.40-$2.44 from $2.40-$2.50), indicating that the fourth quarter likely will be weaker than originally anticipated. We are encouraged by both the strength of last-minute bookings in the third quarter and outlook for price increases in both the first and second quarters of next year.
We remain excited about management's prudent plan to consistently return cash to shareholders. Carnival repurchased 14.5 million shares at an average price of $31 since August. The recent share repurchases and 2011 full-year dividends represent 135% of the year's free cash flow forecast. For dividend payments going forward, the target payout ratio remains 30% to 40%. Despite our near-term geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns, we continue to forecast $5 billion in cumulative share buybacks and dividends during the next five years, making shares particularly attractive for income investors. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2011 7:05 am Post subject: |
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I never realized this before but these cruise co's, residing in the Caribbean as they do, have effective tax rates of under 5%......They're REITs! The demos, structural shifts in europe.....I might want to tuck some away.
Now I just have to figure out what "cheap" is. 
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 2:14 pm Post subject: Re: Tech. |
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| Sub7 wrote: | | Guys, am I the only one doing technical analysis here? |
Not by a long shot.
There's a fair amount of trading done entirely on technicals on this board ... and a few that only trade on technicals ... but also more than a few traders here that are omnivorous (do some trades on technicals, some trades on fundamentals, some on mixed analysis, etc.).
Don't be surprised if on any one stock you see all different varieties of analysis represented. 
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Sub7
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Joined: 18 Mar 2011
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| Posted: Thu Mar 24, 2011 6:07 pm Post subject: Carnival Corp. - CCL |
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Carnival Corp. – Weekly Chart
20-Mar-2011
Level 44.21 was an important turn key on the weekly chart. Short-term traders went out when their trend-line was violated on the 23 of Jan 2011 which is near the level 44 21 . Long to Mid-term traders exited partial positions as profit protection when Carnival violated that level especially with a gap on 20th Feb. 2011 . There is a critical level for long-term traders and that is around 29.68. We need to keep an eye on that level.
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Sub7
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| Posted: Thu Mar 24, 2011 5:35 pm Post subject: Tech. |
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Guys, am I the only one doing technical analysis here?
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Mar 24, 2011 8:07 am Post subject: |
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Morningstar on CCL's 1Q earnings:
| Quote: | | Demand for cruising continues to be strong. Carnival's CCL first-quarter revenue grew 8% from the year-ago period thanks to a 7% increase in passengers carried and modest price increases. Customer deposits also grew 3% year over year, indicating that forward bookings are still healthy. We expect Carnival to benefit from improving economic conditions as the employment markets slowly recover. Despite the strong cruise demand, Carnival was unable to keep costs in check for the quarter. Fuel costs rose 13% year over year. As a result, the operating margin contracted 200 basis points to 7%. Fuel prices may continue to rise as the significant expansionary monetary measures taken in the rece ssion begin to have a greater effect. We believe cruise lines will continue their past policy of passing these costs on to end consumers via fuel surcharges on their tickets. Carnival's first-quarter results were in line with our expectations, and we are leaving our fair value estimate unchanged. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:16 am Post subject: |
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Cruise industry weighing anchor in Europes (not so) troubled waters:
Cruising
Published: July 18 2010 19:52 | Last updated: July 19 2010 09:34
| Quote: | Europe’s seas are filled with American hand-me-downs. Last year, US cruise ship Celebrity Galaxy became the rather more functional Mein Schiff (My Ship) and started carrying Germans around the Baltic. Celebrity Mercury will join it next year as Mein Schiff II. The redeployments are emblematic of the industry’s conviction that Europe is the emerging market of the cruise ship world. Royal Caribbean bought Spanish company Pullmantur in 2006 and launched a joint German venture with Tui AG two years later. Last year Carnival acquired full control of its joint venture, Iberocruceros. But their faith in the continent is about to be tested.
Enthusiasts say it is underdeveloped (only 1 per cent of Europeans went on a cruise last year, compared with 3 per cent of Americans) and point to robust growth. Passenger numbers rose an average 12 per cent each year over the past five years, compared with about 2 per cent in North America. But this is a daft measure of demand. Because fixed costs are so high, operators will always fill their ships to the brim – the question is at what price. Passenger numbers rose globally last year, for example, but ticket prices were slashed as recession hit demand. Yields – revenue per berth per day – fell about 15 per cent. |
Demographics will play to this trend but also, importantly, this is part of the restructuring of Europe that has been continuing from the "market" for the past decade. From "lease to rent" autos, "luxury hostels," low-cost airlines (with "VAT free" zones) there has been a giant end-run around huge taxes and fixed fees for standard travel. Even that old radical, Samantha Brown, has profiled the cost advantages of cruising europe. Throw in the fact that Greece will never have the infrastructure for all the tourists it's going to get and....this is a buy 
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 11:19 pm Post subject: |
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Stock closed up 4.75% today. Also up a whopping 54% since we recommended purchasing the stock on January 15, 2009:
http://www.marketthoughts.com/zs20090115.html
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Carnival 3Q Profit Falls 20%, Tops Views; Shares Up
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Seas are less bumpy for Carnival Corp. (CCL), but the company's management remains cautious about the consumer's recovery ahead.
The world's largest cruise ship company by market capitalization reported a 20% drop in fiscal third-quarter earnings Tuesday, though the results exceeded forecasts on better-than-expected pricing on last-minute sailings amid the seasonally strong summer months.
The stock recently was up 7.25% to $34.32, as Carnival also boosted its previously lowered fiscal year forecast amid better-than-expected yields, the industry's measure of ticket pricing and onboard spending.
Cruise line companies have had to discount fares significantly amid the recession to revive demand. Consumers have responded, though they continue to favor cheaper, shorter and less exotic cruises.
Carnival said its bookings starting in June and through the first half of next year are up 19% from the year earlier. But overall, ticket prices remain lower and occupancy levels, though improving, are still slightly down.
"Pricing continues to be stable, and for a limited number of itineraries...we have been moving pricing up," said Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer Howard Frank on the company's earnings call. Frank in June said he thought prices probably had bottomed.
Consumers also are booking trips further in advance, a positive development for future pricing, especially if the strong booking pattern Carnival has seen continues, Frank said.
That said, because a large part of Carnival's first quarter 2010 business has already been sold at lower prices, "it will be difficult to gain enough pricing momentum to catch up with the first quarter yields we experienced in 2009," Frank said on the call.
Frank said he expects the economic recovery to be slow-going and yields to follow the same sort of pattern.
"I think it will be a slow, emerging yield environment for us and it will take several years, I think, in my mind to recover," Frank said. "It's going to be a fairly stable environment, maybe slightly improving but nothing more than that."
Tuesday, Carnival also raised its previously lowered earnings forecast for the fiscal year to $2.16 to $2.20 a share. Carnival in June projected $2 to $2.10, which reflected higher-than-expected fuel prices.
However, Carnival projected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of 16 cents to 20 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, on average, projected 24 cents.
For the quarter ended Aug. 31, the world's largest cruise-ship operator by market capitalization reported a profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.33 a share, down from $1.33 billion, or $1.65 a share, a year earlier. Carnival in June forecast $1.15 to $1.19 a share, below analysts' views at the time.
Revenue decreased 14% to $4.14 billion.
Net revenue yields, or revenue per-bed per-day, fell a less-than-expected 12%. The company also got a break on fuel prices, which declined 39%. |
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