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CARRY TRADE Replies |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:13 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | The 26 developing-country currencies tracked by Bloomberg returned an average 1 percent in the past three months, down from 1.63 percent in the first quarter, 8.2 percent for all of 2007, and 30 percent annually since 2003. For the first time in seven years, investors are less bullish on emerging-market stocks than on U.S. equities, a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey showed last week. |
The EEM link in this trade is now broken...by crude. What?! you say South Africa has 21% unemployment and half of India exists on $2/day? It was as true then as now...must've been focues on other things.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3fIPKlBl52E
How much did Euro expansion overstate this trade? How much PPP?
The dream still burns. Next and Last: the core stuff currencies.
| Quote: | | ...Eerdmans said Investec has ``long positions'' in the currencies of Nigeria, Malaysia and Russia, which are benefiting from higher oil prices and foreign direct investment, allowing them to fight inflation through currency appreciation. A long position is a bet that an asset will increase in price. |
That will be a surprise...and the last of marginal overseas money will return home.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:59 am Post subject: |
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Switzerland: H. Simons Real Money
March 5, 2003This is the day when the Swiss National Bank lowered its target rate from 0.75% to 0.25%; this rate cut preceded the Federal Reserve's declaration of war on deflation on May 6, 2003, by two months.
http://images.thestreet.com/tsc/common/images/storyimages/022608_simon03.gif
Assets underperform relatively in times of carry. The dollar is becoming a carry. JOF has found another reason to live.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:13 am Post subject: |
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Euro-yen cracks 160 on weak -41 ZEW, japanese holiday effect.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 6:37 am Post subject: |
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Sharp up moves in Yen are met with renewed japanese retail selling:
| Quote: | | According to figures from the Tokyo Financial Exchange, bets against the yen have reached their highest level since November 9, with yen strength at the start of 2008 prompting a 27 per cent increase in yen short positions in the first three days of trading this year. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 11:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | The Dow has rallied more than 500 points over the past 2 trading days, triggering a sharp rebound in all of the Japanese Yen crosses. Carry trades are back with a vengeance, but the question at the forefront of everyone’s minds is whether this trend will continue. Without a doubt the move in the Dow is impressive, but USDJPY is struggling to sustain its gains above 110 which suggest that further gains in carry trades may be limited. This is especially true since the move in both the Dow and carry trades have been fueled by nothing other than risk appetite and the latest US releases validate the market’s belief that Federal Reserve needs to continue lowering interest rates. The curve is pricing in a 92 percent chance for a 25bp rate cut next month followed by the possibility of another quarter point cut in the first quarter of 2008. The first test of whether the gains in carry trades can be sustained will be when Tokyo opens for trading tonight. Japanese industrial production and small business confidence are due for release this evening, but it should matter little to a market focused on risk appetite. Instead, keep an eye on China. Last night a Chinese newspaper suggested that the government could widen the trading band or make another one off revaluation. The odds are low, but unexpected events like these are exactly what triggers big moves in the currency market.
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http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dow_Rises_300_Points__Triggering_1196287435976.html
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 9:28 am Post subject: |
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rffrydr,
Like the "quantitative strategies debacle" during mid August, I don't believe this decline (as with all major declines) will end until we see some forced selling. To that end, I think it's important to see where the leverage is, and one my guesses is that we're going to see some liquidation with the yen carry traders - mainly Japanese housewives, who incidentally were responsible for the record high amount of "foreign investments" in October. In retrospect, that was a great contrarian indicator.
Have a great Thanksgiving.
Henry |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:03 am Post subject: |
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Japanese fiscal half year-end exacerbating carry off.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Aug 05, 2007 7:07 am Post subject: |
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I posted this before:
http://www.edmistoncompany.com/
Something tells me that third (incredible) yacht with the bird of prey on the sail is the Tudor Fund's. Bill Miller's 190ft yacht was the top for him too.
Master H. You make sure you let us know when you acquire your berth down at Marina Del Rey.
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