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rffrydr
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 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:11 am Post subject: |
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Nice pop in buck last night, toyota up 3%....wouldn't it be interesting if those flood gates could open again?
China rebalance of rebalance may be the marginal difference.....nothing is obvious!
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:25 am Post subject: |
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The Macro Teams 2012 "Non-Predictions"...all (so far) related in the carry common denominator:
http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2012/01/2012-non-predictions-rates.html
And a notable intrigue on the "treasury bubble:"
| Quote: | | ....back of the envelope, 5y5y JGBs are 1.6%, while the years of the "Bond Conundrum" (2004-2007, arguably a conservative upside estimate) had the 5y5y UST at an average of about 4.75% (i.e. - something like long run expectations of about 2% inflation plus 2.75% real growth), implying a 52% probability of being in the Japanese state. |
I'll finally dip into this trade but in the most chickenchit way--only selling options on the converse.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 8:54 am Post subject: |
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Buy American...Treasuries 
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2011 8:45 am Post subject: |
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Brazil: growing pains need tough treatment
Published: March 29 2011 19:08 | Last updated: March 29 2011 19:08
Brazil, the enfant terrible of the global economy, is growing up fast. But the speed of its growth has led to confusion and, occasionally, serious policy mistakes. And when the country’s finance minister complains, repeatedly that Brazil is at “war” to keep its currency under control, it sounds petulant.
The growing pains are sharp. Booming consumer credit growth combined with lax government spending pushed the inflation rate above 6 per cent in February, the highest annual rate since 2008. But a new round of monetary tightening – benchmark rates are now pushing 12 per cent – continues to make returns irresistible to foreign investors. Currency inflows in the first three months of 2011 already exceed all of last year, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit.
Hence, the real keeps rising. The result is a surge in imports and pressure on domestic producers and exporters. In response, on Tuesday yet another tax was introduced to try to cool it: now local companies are being told to pay 6 per cent on international loans and bonds with an average minimum maturity of up to 360 days. This effectively raises their cost of capital, and is supposed to put a dampener on lending.
It should work at the margin. Last year’s tax hikes on foreign buying of fixed income securities changed the composition of currency inflows, notes Goldman Sachs. But ultimately such tinkering is beside the point.
Put simply, Brazil needs to grow up. The public sector should shrink (state banks account for half of the financial system) and spend more wisely (public investment is only 2 per cent of output). Labour and tax reform is needed to make domestic companies more competitive. It is all part of the growing process for all developing nations. The teenage prodigy has ridden the commodity horse admirably. An adult will find it easier to dismount.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2010 4:26 pm Post subject: |
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Passing the baton:
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 11:17 pm Post subject: |
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Some color on Indonesia:
Indonesia
Published: October 21 2010 09:44 | Last updated: October 21 2010 10:16
| Quote: | To say that Indonesia has outperformed would be an understatement. A thousand dollars invested in the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index 10 years ago would be worth about $3,600 now, with dividends reinvested. The same sum invested in the Jakarta Composite would have grown to almost $13,000.
Indonesia’s core investment case remains compelling. Bigger than Brazil in population, and with a fractionally younger median age, Indonesia resembles India in the composition of its growth: powered not by net exports – just 1 per cent of gross domestic product in the first half – but by consumption and fixed capital formation. As it had no demand shock from which to recover, Indonesia may be one of a handful of regional economies to see gross domestic product growth accelerate next year.
However, a year into the second term of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, some underpinnings are beginning to wobble. Wednesday’s street demonstrations to mark the anniversary of SBY’s re-inauguration were a sign of dismay at endemic corruption and stalled legal reforms, particularly relating to the acquisition of land. Rising religious tensions and persistent poverty, meanwhile, seem to be threatening the cherished concept of pancasila, the five principles of national social harmony.
Public unrest is as good an excuse as any for investors to trim holdings. Yet even at near-record high valuations – Jakarta’s price/book ratio of 3.5 times is not far from the 3.8 it hit almost three years ago – this remains a tough market to underweight. Oligopolies in the consumer, financial, utility and resources sectors mean that aggregate returns on equity are Asia’s highest. Foreigners sold a net $148m of Indonesian stocks on Tuesday, the biggest net sale in eight months, as police prepared the razor wire. They will almost certainly be back. |
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:16 am Post subject: |
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I've got my eye on that as it is attracting more volume than IDX, but IDX has more history for technical analysis.
Seems so far that there's little tracking error between the two of them. So far.
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rffrydr
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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Columbia, Thailand, Indonesia, all hit recently as a result of buying dollars/currency trading by their banks. Ask me how I know ... 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Sep 16, 2010 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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BOJ intervention initially met with broad selloff on account of the dollar carry trade.
Nothing is obvious.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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Mrs. Watanabe doing her work tonight, socking away yen 3 for 2 aussies at 4%.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 3:30 pm Post subject: |
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YTD:
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:46 am Post subject: |
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| nodoodahs wrote: |
It occurs to me that long/short different Treasury futures might be the "safest" way to lever up this carry. |
That's what Goldman has been on all year--on all the way to the floor.
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:19 am Post subject: |
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Of course it's a carry. One man's bubble is another man's trade.
It occurs to me that long/short different Treasury futures might be the "safest" way to lever up this carry.
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