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CARRY TRADE
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Author CARRY TRADE
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:31 am    Post subject: CARRY TRADE Reply with quote

FT may be all over it but the annual repatriation of Yen is underway:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aVfNZYOnTejI&refer=japan

This should be good for 2% in the Yen WITHOUT shortcovering. Eu/Yen decisively broken. Next up: CRB
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Right on cue:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aql54raktlLM&pos=5

“The main aim of the new rules is to control inflows of hot money,” said Zhao Qingming, a senior analyst in Beijing at China Construction Bank Corp., the country’s second-largest lender. “Individuals’ cross-border transfers are an important channel for hot money to flow into China.”
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So is it or isn't it?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/25/85211/debunking-carry-trade-denial/

A twist on the question is how much the foreign diaspora (asian, south american eastern european and mideastern) is funnelling dollar "back home." The Taiwan example sticks out like a sore thumb.
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nodoodahs
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm sure that Powershares has one for that, I just don't know what it is ...
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Y'got an ETF for this?

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_eKH-tiSXFbc/Su_2vr-gH_I/AAAAAAAAF7o/XQhFYd-Y8oQ/s1600-h/TURDS.GIF
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nodoodahs
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 6:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rffrydr wrote:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_eKH-tiSXFbc/Su_2v9eNDbI/AAAAAAAAF7w/k-alFiwkuA4/s1600-h/fx+carry.GIF
There's an ETF to track that ...
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_eKH-tiSXFbc/Su_2v9eNDbI/AAAAAAAAF7w/k-alFiwkuA4/s1600-h/fx+carry.GIF
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2009 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the end we may all owe these housewives a big kiss:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3KpB_GHQrJI
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nuthin' much left to squeeze out of BDV. Zero is zero. Gotta head on down to Rio.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting that DBV has actually taken a hit the last few days, after a nice uptrend that had been getting progressively less volatile.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2009 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

....And it's back:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKbFuB4RIpQo
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Double bottom?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p87127717398
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The 26 developing-country currencies tracked by Bloomberg returned an average 1 percent in the past three months, down from 1.63 percent in the first quarter, 8.2 percent for all of 2007, and 30 percent annually since 2003. For the first time in seven years, investors are less bullish on emerging-market stocks than on U.S. equities, a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey showed last week.



The EEM link in this trade is now broken...by crude. What?! you say South Africa has 21% unemployment and half of India exists on $2/day? It was as true then as now...must've been focues on other things.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3fIPKlBl52E

How much did Euro expansion overstate this trade? How much PPP?

The dream still burns. Next and Last: the core stuff currencies.

Quote:
...Eerdmans said Investec has ``long positions'' in the currencies of Nigeria, Malaysia and Russia, which are benefiting from higher oil prices and foreign direct investment, allowing them to fight inflation through currency appreciation. A long position is a bet that an asset will increase in price.


That will be a surprise...and the last of marginal overseas money will return home.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who carries the carry? Money or Oil, liquidity by two diffent concepts. Japan/Russia Interesting trade:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Swiss___Yen_Could_Plunge_1206112709834.html
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Euro-Swiss can't get ABOVE jan lows:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=EURCHF%20A0-FX
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Switzerland: H. Simons Real Money

March 5, 2003This is the day when the Swiss National Bank lowered its target rate from 0.75% to 0.25%; this rate cut preceded the Federal Reserve's declaration of war on deflation on May 6, 2003, by two months.

http://images.thestreet.com/tsc/common/images/storyimages/022608_simon03.gif

Assets underperform relatively in times of carry. The dollar is becoming a carry. JOF has found another reason to live.
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