CARRY TRADE

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2006 7:31 am Post subject: CARRY TRADE

FT may be all over it but the annual repatriation of Yen is underway:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aVfNZYOnTejI&refer=japan

This should be good for 2% in the Yen WITHOUT shortcovering. Eu/Yen decisively broken. Next up: CRB
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:13 am Post subject:

Euro-yen cracks 160 on weak -41 ZEW, japanese holiday effect.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 7:10 am Post subject:

euro/swiss on august lows:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=EURCHF%20A0-FX
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 6:37 am Post subject:

Sharp up moves in Yen are met with renewed japanese retail selling:

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 11:25 pm Post subject:

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 9:28 am Post subject:

rffrydr,

Like the "quantitative strategies debacle" during mid August, I don't believe this decline (as with all major declines) will end until we see some forced selling. To that end, I think it's important to see where the leverage is, and one my guesses is that we're going to see some liquidation with the yen carry traders - mainly Japanese housewives, who incidentally were responsible for the record high amount of "foreign investments" in October. In retrospect, that was a great contrarian indicator.

Have a great Thanksgiving.

Henry

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 9:22 am Post subject:

And that second chance looks now like the last chance:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=AUDJPY%20A0-FX
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:52 am Post subject:

Wow, we made it, august highs.

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=AUDJPY%20A0-FX

The markets are remarkable for many reasons--but second chances are high on the list.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:03 am Post subject:

Japanese fiscal half year-end exacerbating carry off.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:49 pm Post subject: a

Looks like 160 is going to stand the test:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=EURJPY%20A0-FX
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:10 am Post subject:

Carry's Picture:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading_reports/dynamic_carry_trade_basket/Carry_Trade_Basket___Performance_1186172843420.html

Dollar INDEX probing below historical lows, on divergences.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Aug 05, 2007 7:07 am Post subject:

I posted this before:

http://www.edmistoncompany.com/

Something tells me that third (incredible) yacht with the bird of prey on the sail is the Tudor Fund's. Bill Miller's 190ft yacht was the top for him too.

Master H. You make sure you let us know when you acquire your berth down at Marina Del Rey.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Aug 05, 2007 3:45 am Post subject:

Dash,

I apologize, the correct number should've been 1.2% below its 200 DMA. Prior to Friday's decline, the S&P was still trading at 1.5% above its 200 DMA. The charts page will get updated sometime Monday or Tuesday.

Given the sea change in liquidity conditions, I think there is still a couple of significant surprises over the next few weeks. This is not just a subprime problem anymore, but it is now a junk bond, general mortgage, hedge fund, and private equity problem. For the first time since early 2003, liquidity conditions are getting much tighter and investors are being turning from risk-taking to risk-averse individuals. Even the Tudor Raptor and the Caxtor funds are getting hurting. Many folks are still trying to survey the carnage and trying to anticipate each other's next move - and the longer this drags on and the more suprises we see, the more incentive for these hedge funds to head out the door - thus tightening liquidity even further.

Besides the obvious things to watch (such as the Chinese stock market, oil prices, and the US buyout market), there are others, such as:

1) The UK real estate market
2) The New Zealand-Yen exchange rate, or the Yen carry trade focused on New Zealand fixed income investments
3) The US commercial real estate market
4) Eastern and Central Europe, particularly the countries that have been indulging in the Swiss carry trade, such as Hungary and Poland.
5) Signs of continuing deterioration in the energy, industrial, and the technology sectors - which have been the three strongest sectors within the S&P 500 over the last few months.

dash · Veteran Poster Joined: 12 Apr 2005 Posts: 488

Henry,

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Aug 04, 2007 1:33 pm Post subject:

No, it's not the economy, but the U.S. consumer cannot be discounted.

We know it is not the economy, per se, because the market rallied despite a slowdown in the GDP anyway. The market doesn't have too much correlation with GDP numbers - unless it is an outlier, i.e. a recession. Should private equity liquidation or cutbacks push consumer spending over the edge, then the market is done for, but it is now too early to speculate on this.

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Aug 04, 2007 1:12 pm Post subject:

No, not monday.

The unemployment numbers? It's already there: revisions down, and most hiring through government. Take out the migrant effect on the Household survey and the birth death model...and Friday's number itself!

I have a post it on my computer: "It's not the ecomony, stoopid."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!