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HenryTo
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Joined: 06 Aug 2004
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Location: Los Angeles, California
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 Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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CAT's earnings report says that the global economy is doing okay.
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Stocknet/534410/caterpillars-sales-soar-in-4q-likely-to-see-double-digit-gains-in-2012.aspx?symbol=CAT
| Quote: | Management expects about $4 billion in capital expenditures this year; at about 6% of revenue, this spending is likely to mark the most in at least the past 10 years. As a result, Cat's incremental margins may suffer as the year progresses.
More encouraging, Cat Financial saw record-low credit losses in China, improving metrics in Europe, and overall past-dues of 2.89%, down from 3.54% in the prior quarter. Given Cat's investment-grade credit rating and resulting low borrowing costs, we continue to believe Cat Financial offers a source of competitive advantage for the company. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Oct 24, 2011 2:00 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on CAT's 3Q earnings:
| Quote: | | Caterpillar CAT reported solid third-quarter results Monday, and we plan to maintain our $101 fair value estimate. Machinery and engine revenue climbed nearly 44% year over year, largely because of higher unit volume (including continued dealer inventory restocking) and 11 percentage points of growth from the recent acquisition of mining equipment manufacturer Bucyrus. However, operating profitability was essentially flat year over year and sequentially, stemming from the dilutive effects of the Bucyrus and EMD acquisitions; the firm posted just 11.7% in all-in incremental margins, a far cry from the high 20s enjoyed in this year's first quarter. But excluding the losses associated with these purchases, Cat's incremental margins climbed to 22% from a weak 18% in the second quarter, and we think both acquisitions will add materially to the bottom line over the coming quarters as they are fully integrated. With these generally strong results, management updated its full-year outlook to the top end of its prior sales and profit range, in line with our expectations. The company also provided its early read on 2012 sales, forecasting 10%-20% revenue growth stemming from slow--but growing--developed-economy deliveries and a continued solid clip of emerging-market gains. Most notably, management expects China to slow further (albeit still grow at a high-single-digit rate), but foresees lofty commodity prices (and resulting mining expansion) continuing. We tend to agree with its assessment and further caution that industry sales of hydraulic excavators--a key product for many foreign manufacturers in the country--have fallen year over year for five straight months, their weakest period since early 2009. Cat again reminded investors that each of its business units prepares a trough plan, in case the general global economy should turn sour. We think the company generally fared well through the 2008-09 downturn, although its planning sharply reduced head count and still resulted in substantial reductions in both sales and operating profitability. The firm would probably have room for some cuts (it has hired more than 30,000 employees since the beginning of 2010), and we don't include a renewed recession in our base-case assumptions, but we caution that Cat is unlikely to completely avoid headwinds in such a downside scenario. Mitigating this concern, Caterpillar's nonfinancial services businesses continued their strong cash flow generation during the quarter, adding about $1.6 billion to the $3 billion in free cash flow already generated in the first half of the year. Once again, the majority of this metric stemmed from inventory reductions, highlighting the firm's focus on strong working capital management. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:37 am Post subject: |
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Don't hurt 'em CAT! Knocks depression talk with blow-out quarter and 20% YOY projections for, yes, 2012.
This would have counted for nothing a month ago. Today it's Bullish. Wall of Worry starting to crumble.
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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Posts: 11732
Location: Los Angeles, California
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HenryTo
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Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11732
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Thu Jan 27, 2011 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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Morningstar on CAT's 4Q results:
| Quote: | | Caterpillar's CAT fourth-quarter results, released Thursday, highlighted strong top-line performance, as machinery and engine sales jumped 69% year over year (including about 5% from the recent acquisition of Electro-Motive Diesel) and 16% sequentially. However, profitability dipped from the previous quarter, as much of this revenue growth stemmed from increased sales of lower-margin machinery versus higher-margin engines. We remain concerned that higher raw-material costs and a continued negative mix shift could prevent margin expansion this year, even as 2011 offers decent sales growth opportunities. We plan to update our projections, as management now expects revenue (including Cat Financial Services) to exceed $50 billion, versus its prior forecast of less than $50 billion. The acquisitions of German engine manufacturer MWM and Bucyrus will probably add growth on top of this figure. Integration of these acquisitions presents a critical challenge for Caterpillar, but we nonetheless plan to raise our fair value estimate, given our improved long-term profitability outlook. In the quarter, Cat's machine sales climbed 88% year over year, led by 108% gains in North America (including 12 points from EMD), an 88% jump in Europe, and 85% growth in Asia. Profitability here continued to improve sharply year over year, but stagnated sequentially; the segment's 8.2% operating margin expanded sharply from an operating loss a year ago, but fell from 8.5% in the third quarter. Engine sales climbed a cooler 36% year over year, as flat performance in Asia hampered results. Operating margins in this business also increased--to 15% from 9% a year ago--but fell from 16% in the prior quarter. As a result, Cat's consolidated operating margin improved t o 10% from 2% in 2009's fourth quarter, but dipped from 11% in the third quarter of 2010. We expect further negative mix shift in 2011, as engine end markets such as marine remain challenging and Cat's factories offer more capacity in smaller, lower-margin machines rather than high-profit large equipment. Price and factory utilization improvements will probably offset some of this headwind on the bottom line, but we think higher raw-material costs, increased personnel spending (Cat added more than 10,000 employees in 2010), and possible supplier challenges will lead to full-year margins slightly below 2010's 10% metric. However, as the potential for a near-term double-dip recession continues to ease in the United States and abroad, we feel confident in boosting our longer-term profitability assumptions for Caterpillar. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 7:24 pm Post subject: |
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On cue: new lows list. Needs to hold these 2000-02 spike lows to 30. For CAT bulls it's already been a lost decade.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 9:12 pm Post subject: |
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Got caught out buying inventory through last quarter. Now slashes 1/5 world workforce.
Hurry-up offense will payoff on infra/global uptick; otherwise 20X earnings is only average. Dow theory anyone?
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Weak Downside Action Hints at a Floor
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
1/27/2009 10:22 AM EST
Of all the prices I see on my screen now, including the declining ones for Du Pont (DD - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Verizon (VZ - commentary - Cramer's Take), the most encouraging one is from Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take). If you recall, CAT yesterday was called down 5 to $30 in premarket trading on the biggest guidedown I have seen in ages, a 50% guidedown.
But the stock ended up opening higher from there and stayed there. It's up from that level, albeit slightly, today. Some of that could be the dividend, as even with the dire forecast -- I think it's doable, though, if we get stimulus through -- the dividend should be able to be maintained. Some of it is the fact that the company does have some core earnings power even in this environment, particularly if energy gains strength and China puts money where its mouth is.
But what matters is that if this is the worst that this market can do to an industrial -- as opposed to a bank -- then we might have a floor, ex financials, developing.
I see Du Pont's down. Du Pont's bad. Dow's (DOW - commentary - Cramer's Take) worse. But, again, they are barely down.
There's some discounting of bad news going on here ahead of time, and that matters. You don't get a bottom until all the shelling is over. That's what Texas Instruments (TXN - commentary - Cramer's Take) is saying, as it was able, at last, to meet its greatly reduced earnings estimates.
Not a reason to buy.
Just not a reason to sell. |
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diesel
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:43 am Post subject: |
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CAT is right at the bottom of its long term channel now, weekly RSI under 20. Also good support at the 99 highs for the back test. These support levels should hold IMO. I dont own it directly but have exposure via ETFs.
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rffrydr
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diesel
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:26 am Post subject: |
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Cat looking into 3d construction.
http://viterbi.usc.edu/news/news/2008/caterpillar-inc-funds.htm
| Quote: | Caterpillar, the world's largest manufacturer of construction equipment, is starting to support research on the "Contour Crafting" automated construction system that its creator believes will one day be able to build full-scale houses in hours.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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No cancellations and full book to 20012:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080828/caterpillar_mover.html?.v=2
Like the GDP this could be old hurrahs. Dollar turn definitely a factor in bringing in the fence-sitters. We'll take it for now.. that CAT wasn't the rally today.
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rffrydr
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