CHINA DOWNGRADES GROWTH

[rffrydr]

...caUsomg jitters....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aunv6AMy3za8

...but no fear. MOF Japan flows going back into foreign bonds in, seasonally, biggest purhase period of the year. Bonds down.

[rffrydr]

Well here is the reward, 10.4%

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-10/19/content_5224469_2.htm

To be shrugged off but down nonetheless. Despite (my) much vaunted property reforms foreigners I hear are still able to circumvent this, esp the tax, by purchasing in another's name and skipping out on sale. Not very difficult I guess in a land of 300 million "cousins."

Farm income increases will go a long way to stabilizing human flows and set up for more agressive macro policies.

[rffrydr]

Land will be the focus point in targeting growth. This should limit the culture of loopholes:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a9cvGec9as6E&refer=news

[rffrydr]

Steel production falling into line....finally;

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-09/30/content_5160301.htm

[rffrydr]

27 pieces of legislation targeting China this year. New Treas. Sec with mandate. China shows anomolus blowout numbes last quarter way out of line with engergy consumption. Set up for reward later?

Politics doesn't matter til it matters, why now?

Best sign of intentions: "criminalization" of corruption--this is the best indicator of govt. "economic" intentions. This IS the surprise few are looking at (not you Master H.)

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/03/news/corrupt.php


Meanwhile CVRD is talking another double-digit ore increase. Copper's alrady down, and down big. And oil?...don't tell anybody.

And that old ghost rears itself:

"The dangers of global imbalances have been stressed for many years. Nothing has happened. Aren’t the risks in this context exaggerated?



The problem has been serious but the consequences have not been - at least not so far. The world has bought time for two reasons: the excesses of the global liquidity cycle and the need for surplus savers to keep their currencies weak in order to maintain export competitiveness. As noted above, the world’s major central banks are now attempting to withdraw excess liquidity. At the same time, the world’s major surplus savers - China, Japan, and Germany are hard at work attempting to stimulate internal demand. That would tend to absorb their excess saving - leaving less foreign capital to send to saving-short America. By drawing comfort from the heretofore-benign consequences of a serious problem, global imbalances are ignored at great peril.

http://www.wiwo.de/pswiwo/fn/ww2/sfn/buildww/id/881/id/217720/artpage/0/

Watch those retail sales--it's official, it's Christmas.

Stay tuned.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

It's not nickel and dime--it's nine: .27 (equals nine) lucky hikes.

BHP reports gangbuster earnings while lost inthe reportage is their statement that China has topped near-term. This would be in keeping with Treas. Sec. trip next month.

[HenryTo]

Quote: "The point is, when you have these nickel-and-dime hikes, it's not going to work very much," he said. "Real rates are low relative to growth: that's the basic issue."

But this is a good start and should continue to put (at least psychological) pressure on both energy and metal prices going forward.

[rffrydr]

China raises rates and the beat goes on:

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-18T110742Z_01_SP322133_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CHINA-RATES-UPDATE-3.XML
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

The Chinese government reported that the country imported 60.7% less refined copper in
May than in the year earlier, while for the first five months of the year, imports were down 41.6% cumulatively.