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Circulus Virtuosis

 
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Author Circulus Virtuosis
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2009 8:05 am    Post subject: Circulus Virtuosis Reply with quote

Global recession was supposed to "rebalance" the great imbalance in this modern-day twist on mercantilism. But never...never underestimate the capacity of the chinese to save--and the very capacity of this platform economy operating at the most basic levels (smelting, refining, cement) will keep the surplus ahead of the game regardless.

Is a grand "rebalancing" what we really need and want? The chinese consumer could do well to pick up the pace but the continued importing of our debt is how we will continue to move forward.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/10/53396/a-deflationary-dragon-with-excess-capacity/
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

China govt. ends Cotton stockpiling--the hoarding mentality, "for the nation of the next thousand years" is well and duly past.
rffrydr wrote:
You can't save if you're buying "high":

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Why-China-failed-to-buy-IMF-gold-reserves-34868-3-1.html

Leaving the dollar comes with a price. Chinese at heart are sellers not buyers. Joint Ventures, iron ore, and food are all only exports by another name.


--Japan, that's a different story Idea
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote






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PostPosted: Thu Mar 14, 2013 7:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BUMP: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/the-world-is-already-in-recession-~PW2T4_0QSudesJpmlIGJA.html


rffrydr wrote:
Here we are, 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the new "Super Cycle":

Quote:
Global gross domestic product will swell to $143 trillion by 2030, allowing for inflation and market-exchange rates, from $62 trillion in 2010, with China and other emerging markets accounting for about two thirds of the rise, estimates Gerard Lyons, chief economist and group head of global research in London for Standard Chartered, which generates most of its earnings from Asia.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-23/super-cycle-leaves-no-economy-behind-as-davos-shifts-to-growth-from-crisis.html

If this is true then '08 will go down in history as an echo of 1907--but we're already well passed that. As the Standard Chartered view is couched in their experience the only "vision" here is Ian Bremmer's:
Quote:

Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, a political-risk consulting company in New York, is more downbeat as he heads to the Swiss ski resort. He predicts what he calls a “G-Zero” era in which no country has the political or economic leverage to dominate the international agenda and all nations focus on their own priorities. That will reduce economic efficiency and prompt trade conflicts, he said.



I do believe we are now in a sweet spot--the "Goldilocks" we thought we had three years ago. Output gaps are sitting on final prices while productivity (and thus, overtime) max out. For those in it, good times. The china wall is staring at its own paradox, its appetite cannot be contained by its walls. But doesn't the diaspora show this has always been true? But instead of "shame" now there is "pride." And we know where that goeth. One thing's for sure, if it's china, it's china now, demographics won't have it any other way.

But there's another super-cycle out there, one well to remember:

Quote:
General Electric, bellwether of corporate America, has cut its dividend – its first reduction since 1938. This year we will probably see the largest reduction in dividends since 1938. But 1938 is not generally remembered as a remarkable year in economic history. What happened?


Now the dividend is "restored" and the grand parallel, which I too draw, beheld:

Code:
Yet there is another, perhaps no less gloomy, way to draw parallels between the present crisis and the Great Depression. From this perspective, we are not at the start of the crisis but several years into it. The analogue of the 1929 Wall Street crash is not the 2007 credit crunch, but the bursting of the New Economy bubble in 2000. The follies of the 1990s resembled those of the 1920s, as Galbraith’s readers know. The underlying structural weaknesses of the world economy – US budget and trade deficits financed by Asian surpluses – re-emerged in 2000 after being disguised by the imaginary wealth of the New Economy.


http://www.johnkay.com/2009/03/11/lessons-from-a-1930s-rebound-that-petered-out

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No fancy paper here. It's not exactly '07 all over again: Dell has been left for lost in a "dying" industry. But that "terminal value" stretches long into the horizon for a debt investor--esp. is the capital (in the form of cash) is sitting pretty in an (onshore) offshore piggy-bank. Dell this morning trading at a premium to its buyout price. They had everybody convinced--except the last true believers: the Shareholders.

The gears are turning. The wheels are in motion. Equity redeemed as a bond? Idea
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Madman sees it too:

This Is More Than a Bracelet
By Jim Cramer
| Dec 21, 2011 | 6:02 AM EST | 2 Comments


They didn't need Eurobonds. They have the financial ouroboros, that snake that eats its tail and devours its own waste and prospers in good health?

Isn't that really what the European banks are doing? It's a pseudo-elegant solution, a bank run in reverse. Italian banks, the most hobbled banks in the universe and devoid of funding for months and months, are able to buy sovereign bonds, no matter how toxic, no matter how many of them there are, as long as they are allowed to lock in the ECB's gift rates, the ultra-low three-year guaranteed funds that the entity's offering.

This solution, if backed properly, may be easier than I thought to accomplish -- even with the mountains and mountains of sovereign debt out there. Think back a year, we may never have heard of this crisis if it weren't for a series of nasty shocks one after another, the nuclear obliteration of Japan, the Arab uprisings, and concomitant skyrocketing of Brent, and then (worst of all) Trichet's suicidal rate hikes. All of them slowed growth measurably and put the debt issue back on the radar screen after we had solved our crisis.

Our own debt ceiling chicanery and the ease with which our debt was downgraded didn't help things either. That was a vicious shock to everyone's system. Then, perhaps the most damaging of all, the emerging-market rate hikes, courtesy, again, of the shock in oil.

But if we can get the virtuous circle going, I don't know why, barring a once-in-a-generation shock to the system, the Europeans can't tip the scale back to where all banks and even American cash reserve funds aren't willing to lend to Italy simply because they know other banks will lend to Italy (especially when lending to countries like Italy is now a great way to rebuild capital thanks to the 1% lifeline) and confidence will be restored.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$30B in DTA's.....and that's just the tip of the iceberg. $100 crude, bring it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/ford-s-accounting-revision-may-add-13-billion-to-profit-tax-expert-says.html?cmpid=yhoo
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here we are, 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the new "Super Cycle":

Quote:
Global gross domestic product will swell to $143 trillion by 2030, allowing for inflation and market-exchange rates, from $62 trillion in 2010, with China and other emerging markets accounting for about two thirds of the rise, estimates Gerard Lyons, chief economist and group head of global research in London for Standard Chartered, which generates most of its earnings from Asia.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-23/super-cycle-leaves-no-economy-behind-as-davos-shifts-to-growth-from-crisis.html

If this is true then '08 will go down in history as an echo of 1907--but we're already well passed that. As the Standard Chartered view is couched in their experience the only "vision" here is Ian Bremmer's:
Quote:

Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, a political-risk consulting company in New York, is more downbeat as he heads to the Swiss ski resort. He predicts what he calls a “G-Zero” era in which no country has the political or economic leverage to dominate the international agenda and all nations focus on their own priorities. That will reduce economic efficiency and prompt trade conflicts, he said.



I do believe we are now in a sweet spot--the "Goldilocks" we thought we had three years ago. Output gaps are sitting on final prices while productivity (and thus, overtime) max out. For those in it, good times. The china wall is staring at its own paradox, its appetite cannot be contained by its walls. But doesn't the diaspora show this has always been true? But instead of "shame" now there is "pride." And we know where that goeth. One thing's for sure, if it's china, it's china now, demographics won't have it any other way.

But there's another super-cycle out there, one well to remember:

Quote:
General Electric, bellwether of corporate America, has cut its dividend – its first reduction since 1938. This year we will probably see the largest reduction in dividends since 1938. But 1938 is not generally remembered as a remarkable year in economic history. What happened?


Now the dividend is "restored" and the grand parallel, which I too draw, beheld:

Code:
Yet there is another, perhaps no less gloomy, way to draw parallels between the present crisis and the Great Depression. From this perspective, we are not at the start of the crisis but several years into it. The analogue of the 1929 Wall Street crash is not the 2007 credit crunch, but the bursting of the New Economy bubble in 2000. The follies of the 1990s resembled those of the 1920s, as Galbraith’s readers know. The underlying structural weaknesses of the world economy – US budget and trade deficits financed by Asian surpluses – re-emerged in 2000 after being disguised by the imaginary wealth of the New Economy.


http://www.johnkay.com/2009/03/11/lessons-from-a-1930s-rebound-that-petered-out
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 5:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Exports by another name: now in refining, into the UK.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/72b5e6e8-1cd2-11e0-a106-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F72b5e6e8-1cd2-11e0-a106-00144feab49a.html%3Fftcamp%3Drss&_i_referer=&ftcamp=rss

The platform economy is transforming.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 7:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can't save if you're buying "high":

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Why-China-failed-to-buy-IMF-gold-reserves-34868-3-1.html

Leaving the dollar comes with a price. Chinese at heart are sellers not buyers. Joint Ventures, iron ore, and food are all only exports by another name.
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