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rffrydr
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 Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 6:57 am Post subject: Circulus Vitiosus |
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..."Pushing on a string," "when it rains it pours" and now "you can lead horse to water..."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a1c59b4-eb20-11dc-a5f4-0000779fd2ac.html
This recognition of the most powerful part of a trend, because it is self-reinforcing, is also a sign of its imminent end.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:50 am Post subject: |
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If you want to destroy the sovereign through its banks then stop xxx when they save themselves the same way!
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:35 am Post subject: |
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Far from being scandalous, as this article tweeted about by Mr. Keene, this is leadership:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/jpmorgan-joins-goldman-keeping-investors-in-dark-on-italy-derivatives-risk.html
"Transparency" can be it's own enemy--in this case it will only inflame. What markets are "demanding" here is confirmation of their own worst fears...that is complete and total breakdown of finance, and what it adds up to. If these figures were released they'd just move on to the next "implication" and it wouldn't end until France fell into the sea--but it wouldn't.
Unicredit's cash call $7.5B was covered by underwriters comprising the known universe of Western lenders. Physician is healing itself.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Nov 01, 2011 7:57 am Post subject: |
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Sadly, it wasn't a big bet on eurodebt that my trusted broker, MF Global, had on--it was in the repo arbitrage game. This complex process is the blood that courses through the veins of IB's. Bull markets bring M&A...but this stuff keeps the heart pumping--and is now in cardiac arrest. That sends out tremors far and above its own little heartbeat.
It remains to be seen if the plug-pulling was truly a market event. 
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:48 pm Post subject: |
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Oct 1st Edition
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 8:25 pm Post subject: |
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"Time to Send Home the Barber."
http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2010/11/euro-zone_crisis
| Quote: | Will all this assuage the cantankerous markets? Like a suspicious child, they will be acutely aware of any hint of doubt or inconsistency in mum and dad's kind words.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:21 am Post subject: |
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Back to where we once began? Not really:
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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JPMorgan Chaste
Published: July 15 2010 15:05 | Last updated: July 15 2010 18:18
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All banks think they’re unique. But each earnings season investors hungry for clues about the state of the financial sector look to JPMorgan Chase as the first American lender out of the traps. What can they learn from Thursday’s results?
First is that those who are bearish on banks cannot have it both ways. Much will be made of the fact that of $4.5bn of quarterly net income, $1.5bn came from a reduction of loan loss reserves. But the truth is that after many torrid quarters when consumer-facing divisions were being carried by resurgent investment banking, credit conditions are finally easing, particularly in residential mortgages and cards. If the economy continues to improve – still an if – expect credit-related losses to drop sharply. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon May 17, 2010 5:51 am Post subject: |
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The New Negative Thesis
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/17/2010 6:13 AM EDT
| Quote: | An odd and enervated consensus seems to be building at this very moment. The thesis: 1937 is almost upon us. That's the nightmare scenario in which the recovery stalls out and we return to dark days -- the last time brought on by interest rate hikes, this time brought on by tax hikes to close deficits, well-meaning tax hikes that fall too soon, given the difficulties of our trading partners China, Latin America and Europe.
The consensus is airtight. It seemingly can't be defeated. Europe's plan, whatever it is, whatever it was meant to be, must fail, by the nature of the inability to cut back or by the ability to cut back. This exercise in arguing in the alternative holds that if the International Monetary Fund gets its way, then the countries it lends to are so impoverished that they take all of Europe down. If the IMF doesn't get its way than the countries that are so profligate take every one down. Integral to this thesis is that a collapse in the euro takes everything and everyone down, including major European banks with big holdings here that will, of course, take everyone down.
We know this is all true because "we," notice I am not saying "the bears" but the collective "we," are gauging everything by the decline in the euro (catastrophic) and the decline in oil (double dip's primary exhibit).
The backbone of all of this thinking in Nouriel Roubini, who never got it wrong, no matter what people like me say. He's the chief articulator when he is not partying like a mad man, as one of my friends who hung out with him this weekend reports. At least he's not personally the Cassandra he plays on endless TV appearances -- clearly the most important thinker of our time.
Of course, if anyone doubts the full impact of the euro and its wave-like debacle washing up here as surely as the 50 billion gallons of oil soon to wipe out the American south -- didn't you know that? -- then, to quote Barry McGuire, the man who sung "Eve of Destruction" more than 40 years ago, "Think of all the hate, there is in Red China," no doubt meaning the hate of inflation because it sure isn't of growth. It's China's checkmate to those who think that Europe's only in check.
What about the U.S. itself, supposedly gaining steam? The new negative thesis has that covered to: April was bad, we learned recently, with estimate cuts from major retailers and incentives - YES, INCENTIVES -- from Ford (F - commentary - Trade Now). Don't worry, it will only get worse as the taxes of 2011 kick in, including many meant to wreck the stock market, like the dividend tax, which is now creeping in to the discussion and will make dividends less advantageous and therefore less protective.
Along these lines is a hardcore belief that Congress and the president are united in the desire to both punish and confiscate the wealth of shareholders, who we know are all wealthy so they can handle themselves. It is part of the great repeal of the government for, by and off the corporations that reigned, horribly, they say, over the Bush years.
Do you know that all comebacks from this reasoning are considered superficial and unrigorous? The idea that the U.S. can be an engine of growth that can offset Europe is taken off the table by the government. The idea that Europe cannot bring us down even as it hasn't brought the German economy down -- their stock market's up even with ours is considered fanciful. The idea that China can do anything other than collapse under its own real estate weight is totally dismissed.
The idea that we could have a healthy 8% growth rate in China, after a braking of the real estate market, or a healthy return to slight house price appreciation, something that is predominating in a majority of metropolitan areas in this country, are both foolish pipedreams by dreamers and permabulls, of which I am identified as the archetype even as I am the only one I know who went hard bearish in at Dow 11,000 and stayed that way until Dow 6500, another FACT that is disputed as a lie.
No matter. There's no getting around the failure of everything, or why else would oil be down? Isn't oil always the barometer of the economy's health, except, that is when it went to $140 when we had already started the Great Recession. Leave that out, doesn't fit the thesis.
To which I want to ask, "Wait a second, does anyone mind if we do a textual analysis of the doomsday theory?" But you know what? As I said, I am letting the pessimism build, letting the skepticism get the upper hand, the collapse, if there is one, occur, without me participating but just watching, with some cash and some accidental high-yielders, accepting the total hopelessness of the moment because I am not so stupid or so inexperienced to fight a consensus trend that doesn't acknowledge its consensus nature, lest it loses its gravitas as a sub rose antidote to all of the alleged bullishness out there, even as it is gossamer and chimerical to say the least.
As Bob Dylan sang, accept that a "Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall," and try not to get too wet until prices are right and discounted for the coming Armageddon, wherever those prices are. I trust myself to judge that even though anyone who tries is viewed as a foolish alchemist who doesn't get that we are going back to the world of Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Trade Now) at $3, Ford at $4, Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Trade Now) at $15, and, two new ones, BP (BP - commentary - Trade Now) and Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Trade Now) at zero. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Apr 27, 2010 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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The (mono)crop cycle meets global finance at Basel:
http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/cda9c120-512e-11df-aceb-00144feab49a.html?catid=8&SID=29ddc7c8d1a93780ce2d39401f6329aa
| Quote: | | In aggregate, the proposed measures will increase market volatility during a crisis with a significant impact on the fair value of assets. Shocks that had previously affected banks to different degrees will in future prompt every bank to raise equity and term debt at the same time, or massively cut their balance sheets. With such perfect synchronicity and no room for banks to exercise judgment, it is well imaginable that the next financial crisis is even more severe than that of the past few years. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:20 am Post subject: |
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From the madman this morning:
| Quote: | | ....Random musings: When we see U.S. Bancorp (USB - commentary - Trade Now) up on the purchase of the California banks, you get a virtuous circle. That same virtuous circle is on display in PNC (PNC - commentary - Trade Now) which is still reaping the gains of the National City deal, a deal, by the way, which PNC was much faulted for, if anyone else remembers that fact. ... |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:32 pm Post subject: |
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If the "gated" delayed dump of Hedge Fund liquidations against the panic in the buy-and-hold insurance industry marked the bottom in March, as I think it has, we will look back and find many reasons. As time fades the memory it may even be reduced to that time-honored quip, "Don't fight the FED."
But one point stands out--and that's where turns are made, when meaning is almost meaningless, a geometrical construct...an abstraction. The Dollar. The world's reserve currency, an abstraction in itself and most set up to be debased the Bugs told us did not give way. Nay, in the face of all the world's withering gaze it not only survived, it thrived. Yes, the FED, the Govt., puts the pedal down, but only so far as the buck would stop there. Russia (and, yes, China) paled and wilted but that worthless paper stood the blow.
Why? Here at the source, the root evil of structured credit piled high in the Citi dungeons, there was still another price to pay--a death tax. And debt is denominated in dollars, my friends.
If you can't break the circle it must ultimately spin against itself. When there is nothing left to take apart...that's when the snake bites its tail.
Capitalism is about trust. It is also about trust in distrust.
The story in covers:
http://www.economist.com/printedition/cover_index.cfm?year=2008&quarter=4&edition=US
Note the month of october...and then Nov.
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