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rffrydr
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 Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2011 8:27 am Post subject: |
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....And that was it. Warren over Hank.
"Funny" things going on in the commodities curve:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10/28/715136/oh-the-iron-y/
For those old enough to remember the 90's you will remember backwardization was the normal condition for crude. Why? Everything depends on it. Call it the "now" premium. --And from where that crude comes from, is anything but now.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2011 6:06 am Post subject: |
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Structural shortages in grain may keep this retracement to 50% 
SP vs. FTSE tempting. For all the pain in the indices we could wind up really cheering Main St.--at last.
As Gartman says, there's a generation of traders who don't know a bear market. '08 may just have magnified this faith.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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Made it to '08 highs and the chinese put the hammer down. Driving down demand through release of stockpiles--cotton last week and copper this one:
| Quote: | | Today more rumors came of monetary tightening in China across the board as well as a rate rise in Korea. If that wasn't enough, the State Reserve Board, that wonderful Chinese entity that imported hundreds of thousands of tons of copper concentrate in early 09 and single-handedly engineered a Lazarus-like rise in the base metal complex, seems to now have gone all offered with auctions of aluminum ingots amongst other metals. Chalco and other metal names in Asia have suffered pretty horribly as a result of this as has the entire index: combined with property curbs (they just keep coming, don't they?) and insane rises in food prices, it is quite clear the Wizards of Beijing who pull the levers on China are in a full-fledged inflation panic and are doing anything within their grasp to get it under control. TMM can't help but feel with some good news in the offing in Europe and pain in Asia that buying EURAUD is not an idea without its merits. |
---MacroMan
Hard Money vs. Soft Money...or can monetary policy be set in reverse? I've poo-pooed the idea of "currency wars" but something could be brewin' here.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 8:02 am Post subject: |
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Anecdotally seeing front page stuff on the price of stuff...."starting to hit consmers," at precisely their first turn. Makings of a trend. Miners and EEM in for a rest.....can Apple be far behind?
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2010 7:24 pm Post subject: |
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Bond breaking down after crap auction; targeting august levels. Watch for dollar bottom and gold/eem scare. QEII non-announcement could get interesting. Follow-on food price scare with some jobs (doesn't have to be many) may make for an interesting Xmas.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 9:15 am Post subject: |
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It's back to '08 in CRB-land.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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Copper, dollar index and nice double determined gas all attained their measured swing move and bounced--gasoline right out of its gap:
POT was barely scratched. Copper on lucky "3." And the CRB just went to bottom of ascending triangle. I think we'll see china buying tonight no matter how overstocked they are. We now have a whole working generation that knows nothing but boom over there.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:18 am Post subject: |
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Peaked this day last year.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2009 8:48 am Post subject: |
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chart update
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diesel
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: |
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Stocks-to-use ratios still at historically low levels with prices now well off. Look for a theme to develop out of commodities, not excessive demand--necessary demand.
From the broker:
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Positive closes across the board (for a change) with corn up 28 cents, wheat up 19
cents and soybeans up 65 cents on the week in wake of dramatic Tuesday
downward revision by USDA of ’08 CN/BN planted area, buoyant tone to crude and
equity markets and a more 2 sided trade in the dollar. We are unable to forecast
next turn of events in chaotic financial markets, but in absence of another major
financial institution imploding, we sense that the ag markets are predisposed to
stabilize ahead of Nov 10 crop report. ’08 crop reports to date, scheduled and
non-scheduled, have been prone to harbor surprises. We can see no reason to
expect anything different on the Nov 10 report which suggests higher risk making
markets more comfortable carrying or even adding risk premium as the week
unfolds. Additionally, unlike prior weeks, the soybean/grain charts are finally
showing signs of basing. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:06 pm Post subject: |
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Now taken out the whole parabolic move from 400...and then some. We should spend some time here. Cotton and Coffee showing bottoming action; big divergence in Copper now that we're under $2.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:59 pm Post subject: |
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One of the unintended consequences of problems at AIG this week has been liquidations of commodity holdings tied to the DJ-AIG index. Criterion Investments disclosed such a liquidation prior to today's open.
So much for the SPR "flood"--its out of power from the hurricane!
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