DEADShort term sentimentsDEAD

[vin]

New here – mostly swing trading. I’ve been searching for a serious site and believe I have found it here. Mr. To’s commentaries are excellent. Let’s cut to it - I for one am spooked short term (1-3 weeks). Here are my reasons:
First, the current rally just doesn’t seem to have teeth. The move up on June 29 seemed exaggerated. It was just a big ‘Hurrah, the Fed did what we expected.’ Many read a future pause into Bernanke’s statement but who knows? It’s almost as if the market ‘willed’ a rally.
Second, after this delayed follow through day the major indexes responded with a pullback on increased volume (modest in percentage loss).
Third, two days prior (June 27th) all three indices had what I call a ‘heave day.’ They climbed over the previous day’s high only to close lower than the previous day’s low – all on increased volume.
Fourth, there was no doubt some end of the quarter window dressing and short covering.
What has happened since? Some call it consolidation; I call it distribution and selling into bounces. The accumulation volume has been anemic. Although the holiday week clouds things the leading events remain.
Lastly, the most important thing is the gut. Something makes me feel very uneasy (see below). Maybe it was the synthesis of what I mentioned above; maybe I am worried about locking in gains on this recent move up. Nevertheless, I liquidated everything except LEN as I don’t think homebuilders can get beat up much more (gee, wonder where I got that idea?).
North Korea lobbing missiles into the sea doesn’t help. I think there will be one more shakeout before we test old highs again. I don’t know if we’ll sink to (or below) the mid-June lows, but it could be painful. Predictions are pretty much worthless until events transpire. I’m only building an arguable case. The market doesn’t care or need reasons to steamroll every naysayer out there. Let the tape decide.

Side note: I was reading my Bible before the market opened and came across these verses:

“With her enticing speech she caused him to yield, with her flattering lips she seduced him. Immediately he went after her, as an ox goes to the slaughter, or as a fool to the correction of the stocks…” Proverbs 7:21-22

I don’t claim to have divine intervention on my side, and starting my day with this verse might have been what spooked me. Take it for what it’s worth, but the wording in this verse is uncanny in its application to bulls running up a blind (r)alley. The Bible remains the best book on investing ever written (not to mention the invaluable spiritual content). If you don’t have one, get one.

[rffrydr]

Women know how to spend, I'll grant you that!

No... I'd love to be able to afford Elaine G.'s quantitatvie reasearch and tune in to one everyday for my economic updates. And have no doubts they CAN make strong traders attuned as they are to cycles and a holistic perspective. And, less we forget, that non plus ulta of trading, reflex!

But in gazing into the watery depths of those big all-seeing market eyes and again and again mistaking truth for what is only surface, love driven to hate and back again, often on our knees, who can deny the market is a woman?!

Again, with the Bible as our guide: "let he who is without sin cast the first stone."

But I digress: yeah it's probably too early to catch a serious move off last months extemes. Holding some Russell spreads, naked sbux,some covered GE and watching our fearless leader.

H.T., you're the man.

[HenryTo]

vin,

Thanks for your kind comments. rffrydr: Not sure your analogy is correct but women are most probably better at handling household finances than men.

Yes, the latest bounce has been weak and breadth has not been up to par - but earnings season is approaching next week and so I am going to be patient and see what the companies have to say before making any further judgements. Unfortunately, earnings season doesn't really ramp up until the second week and I will be in LA for most of that week for my move (and the next week we will be on a road trip).

Moreover, quarterly contributions for calender-year defined benefits pension plans are due 7/14 so the stock market may get some additional liquidity in the days prior to and after that date.

Best regards,

Henry

[rffrydr]

We're turning from a 61.8 fib of the May inflation decline--on the "best of all possible news." "Heave" market. I like that.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

"with her flattering lips she seduced him...as a fool to the correction of stocks," the market is a woman. I like that. Maybe why so few hedge fund managers are women.

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_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!