DEADShort term sentimentsDEAD

vin · Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:35 pm Post subject: DEADShort term sentimentsDEAD

New here – mostly swing trading. I’ve been searching for a serious site and believe I have found it here. Mr. To’s commentaries are excellent. Let’s cut to it - I for one am spooked short term (1-3 weeks). Here are my reasons:
First, the current rally just doesn’t seem to have teeth. The move up on June 29 seemed exaggerated. It was just a big ‘Hurrah, the Fed did what we expected.’ Many read a future pause into Bernanke’s statement but who knows? It’s almost as if the market ‘willed’ a rally.
Second, after this delayed follow through day the major indexes responded with a pullback on increased volume (modest in percentage loss).
Third, two days prior (June 27th) all three indices had what I call a ‘heave day.’ They climbed over the previous day’s high only to close lower than the previous day’s low – all on increased volume.
Fourth, there was no doubt some end of the quarter window dressing and short covering.
What has happened since? Some call it consolidation; I call it distribution and selling into bounces. The accumulation volume has been anemic. Although the holiday week clouds things the leading events remain.
Lastly, the most important thing is the gut. Something makes me feel very uneasy (see below). Maybe it was the synthesis of what I mentioned above; maybe I am worried about locking in gains on this recent move up. Nevertheless, I liquidated everything except LEN as I don’t think homebuilders can get beat up much more (gee, wonder where I got that idea?).
North Korea lobbing missiles into the sea doesn’t help. I think there will be one more shakeout before we test old highs again. I don’t know if we’ll sink to (or below) the mid-June lows, but it could be painful. Predictions are pretty much worthless until events transpire. I’m only building an arguable case. The market doesn’t care or need reasons to steamroll every naysayer out there. Let the tape decide.

Side note: I was reading my Bible before the market opened and came across these verses:

“With her enticing speech she caused him to yield, with her flattering lips she seduced him. Immediately he went after her, as an ox goes to the slaughter, or as a fool to the correction of the stocks…” Proverbs 7:21-22

I don’t claim to have divine intervention on my side, and starting my day with this verse might have been what spooked me. Take it for what it’s worth, but the wording in this verse is uncanny in its application to bulls running up a blind (r)alley. The Bible remains the best book on investing ever written (not to mention the invaluable spiritual content). If you don’t have one, get one.

Odysseus · Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:21 pm Post subject:

Haven't had this much fun since I had my tonsils yanked out in the 2nd grade...At least I got lots of jello and ice cream for a few days after.

I took the flint out of the Zippo this PM. Figure the retest will be successful. I'm not very good with technicals but when they align with my gut, I pay attention.

Just an observation but real estate has always been my asset class of choice until these last few years mainly because of the ability to get 4 or 5 times leverage on a well thought out cash flowing property. We now have available many 2X ETF's which on margin would yield 4X leverage as well. Would it not be somewhat ironic that a good stock jockey need only put up 25 cents while the real estate mogul is now forced to pony up 35% or more? Could this be a form of Dodge City justice where Matt Dillon always wins? Think of it as retribution where the financial system is oblidged to delever while forcing funds into equities by default. Poetic says I.

Anyway, the next stop for me will be 150% long. I haven't paid margin interest to FIDO since '03 and they say they 'miss' me. Wonder If I can get 4% money? They only pay me 2.32%. Seems like a fair spread.

Which begs the question. Since Sir Henry was net short a few months back in the toy account, it must be on margin. What is to keep the boy from going 150% long? Seems only proper from a Marquess du Queensbury rules sort of way and might goose the returns a might. Risk management implies if you can be 50% short then 150% long should be equally fair. If need be, change your rules, everyone else does.

Just mouthing off but the next few days will be me vs. either a Mack Truck or a teeny whelping poodle. I must say that the market looks a lot like my '74 experience. Instead of the nifty 50, write in the bank of your choosing. I'm afraid that hyperstagflation (tm) might be our lot in life for for the next 8 to 10 years. I do so love commodities just not yet... My opinion for 5 cents.

Short term calls are a sucker's bet. That makes me a grape lollipop this week, so beware.

You can always go to Canossa too soon.

Regards
_________________
Psychic with Alzheimers. I can predict what I will forget.

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:39 pm Post subject:

I'm not crazy about one-day "trends," especially on monster moves. Beware the big moves. They tend to draw alot of attention--of the wrong kind.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

No doubt, the debt position of US is now being "questioned." With a carry of less than one half-of-one percent and export share (still the biggest exporter in the world) growing, we're doing alright.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

probtrader · Senior Poster Joined: 22 Oct 2005 Posts: 130

9/22/2008. The trend is your friend: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=1d

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 8:17 am Post subject:

1203 Gap on the big contract.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 10:02 am Post subject:

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., and Richard Bove, an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co., talk with Bloomberg's Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene about the U.S. government's move to cleanse banks of troubled assets and halt an exodus of investors from money markets, the outlook for the U.S. Treasury market and the Securities and Exchange Commission's rules on short selling.

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Economics/On_Economy/vzkrhKROK5ZY.mp3
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 10:19 pm Post subject:

Yeah I touched on that:

http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/no-trading-floors-for-old-men-t9722.html

I recommend Spinoza: not only are there no free markets, there are no free thoughts. But there are many more ways to make a herd.

That 1250 straddle-write I recommended turned out just swimmingly Embarassed

But S&P 1250 has been on this stage more than once:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&as_qdr=all&q=1250++site%3Amarketthoughts.com%2Fforum&btnG=Search
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

diesel · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject:

Apparently this whole mess is testosterones and cortisols fault.

Science unveils hidden drivers of stock bubbles and crashes

http://www.physorg.com/news141015420.html

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 2:46 pm Post subject:

lewie2004 · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 2:05 pm Post subject:

For those of you keeping score or care.
Dougie Kass comments forthe day.

Doug Kass is the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Short Offshore Fund, Ltd. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.
For an explanation of Doug's market ratings, please click here.

Same CRUD, Different Day
9/19/2008 3:52 PM EDT

CRUD stands for the central repository of underperforming debt.

Thanks for reading The Edge this week. It's been, well, an interesting week!

I will be back on CNBC with Erin Burnett at 7 p.m. EDT tonight.

Next week, I plan to discuss the problems with the new RTC-like strategy of CRUD.

CRUD stands for the central repository of underperforming debt.

Shorting Banks!
9/19/2008 3:06 PM EDT

Bearish SKF

I am initiating a buy in the UltraShort Financials ProShares now.
I expect a rush to issue new common stock by many larger banks over the next few days.
If I am correct, it's perfect irony that the banks become the new short sellers of their own stocks.

Given the sharp rise in bank stocks this week, I expect a rush to issue new common stock by many larger banks over the next few days.

I am initiating a buy in the UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) now (read: shorting banks!).

If I am correct, it's perfect irony that the banks become the new short sellers of their own stocks.

Position: Long SKF

Fun Times at CNBC
9/19/2008 2:37 PM EDT

Stop hunting bears.

Just in case you missed this gem.

Memo to Market Participants
9/19/2008 1:38 PM EDT

"Don't call" lists dont work, and neither will "don't short" lists.

Mind-Boggling Inaccuracies
9/19/2008 12:54 PM EDT

The inaccuracies in reporting the impact on short selling in the media is mind-boggling to me.
I will be discussing this at about 2:10 p.m. EDT today with Erin Burnett on CNBC.

Very Short
9/19/2008 10:08 AM EDT

I am now very short.
My trading activity mandates limited posts today, so you know.
I am fading the regulators.

Stayed Tuned for Capital Raises
9/19/2008 8:51 AM EDT

I fully expect a number of financial institutions to announce capital raises in the days to come.

U.S. Treasury to Insure Happiness
9/19/2008 8:38 AM EDT

Regulation is now running amok.
I am out of my trading long rentals now and SHORTING the premarket ramp.

Don't Want No Short People
9/19/2008 7:19 AM EDT

Wall Street needed a scapegoat -- and found one in short sellers.

They got little hands
And little eyes
And they walk around
Tellin' great big lies
They got little noses
And tiny little teeth
They wear platform shoes
On their nasty little feet
Well, I don't want no short people
Don't want no short people
Don't want no short people
Round here.
-- Randy Newman, "Short People"

The SEC has instituted a temporary ban on short sales in a wide array of financial stocks.
As a dedicated short, I never thought an outside influence like the SEC would damage my portfolios and my business; I always thought my miscues and poor judgment would.

I was mistaken.

Turns out, the SEC, Treasury and their peers at home and abroad just don't like short people.

Not surprisingly, many free market capitalists are cheerleading the SEC's decision. From my perch, they are frauds.

The decision will likely prove myopic. (While the RTC-like package is complicated, at least, it appears to be a step in the right direction.)

Among other things, the SEC should have regulated credit default swap (CDS) trading and disclosures. The CDS market is subject and continues to be subject to all sorts of insider conflicts and potential abuses, and its influence over the financial system is far greater today than the equity markets.

Wall Street needed a scapegoat -- and found one in short sellers.

Blame the Blamers.

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Same CRUD, Different Day
9/19/08 3:52 PM ET

Shorting Banks!
9/19/08 3:06 PM ET

Fun Times at CNBC
9/19/08 2:37 PM ET

Memo to Market Participants
9/19/08 1:38 PM ET

Mind-Boggling Inaccuracies
9/19/08 12:54 PM ET

Very Short
9/19/08 10:08 AM ET

Stayed Tuned for Capital Raises
9/19/08 8:51 AM ET

U.S. Treasury to Insure Happiness
9/19/08 8:38 AM ET

Don't Want No Short People
9/19/08 7:19 AM ET

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Odysseus · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 11:10 am Post subject:

The bear is dead. At least nominally so.

I am 100% long and making 10's of thousands but I must tell you that this is the first time in my life that I'm ashamed to be an American.

The government, without authority has nationalized the balance sheet of every citizen, rich or poor. This is a last chance effort to transfer massive amounts of wealth before a new government begins a historic redistribution of what is left. A wealth tax is in our future.

Hyperstagflation, if this is even a word, will become the new norm. Capital controls will be instituted to prevent capital flight.

I know this will all play out only in the fullness of time but mark it.

Unleveraged non hypothicated real assets are the only safe havens to my mind. Non portable assets that cannot be monitized will be left as scrap for dogs.

Luck to all in this brave new world.

Regards
_________________
Psychic with Alzheimers. I can predict what I will forget.

lewie2004 · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:54 am Post subject:

For what it is worth. Dougie Kass says he is Very short this market after this two day move.

Suomodo · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:36 am Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:03 am Post subject:

I like the CLOs, higher in structure and trapped in their structure. Don't know any funds loaded up on these however.

Floating LIBOR has sure been the way to go.

PS Congratulations on the currencies. I bailed after a long and dexterous fight to breakeven but I knew the Aussie had a seventies print in it. Canade did much better HINT.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

diesel · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:51 am Post subject:

Anyone have any thoughts on floating rate corporate bonds? Appreciate your thoughts.
_________________
All cats are gray in the dark.

diesel · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:14 am Post subject: