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vin
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Joined: 06 Jul 2006
Posts: 82
Location: Buenos Aires
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 Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:35 pm Post subject: DEADShort term sentimentsDEAD |
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New here – mostly swing trading. I’ve been searching for a serious site and believe I have found it here. Mr. To’s commentaries are excellent. Let’s cut to it - I for one am spooked short term (1-3 weeks). Here are my reasons:
First, the current rally just doesn’t seem to have teeth. The move up on June 29 seemed exaggerated. It was just a big ‘Hurrah, the Fed did what we expected.’ Many read a future pause into Bernanke’s statement but who knows? It’s almost as if the market ‘willed’ a rally.
Second, after this delayed follow through day the major indexes responded with a pullback on increased volume (modest in percentage loss).
Third, two days prior (June 27th) all three indices had what I call a ‘heave day.’ They climbed over the previous day’s high only to close lower than the previous day’s low – all on increased volume.
Fourth, there was no doubt some end of the quarter window dressing and short covering.
What has happened since? Some call it consolidation; I call it distribution and selling into bounces. The accumulation volume has been anemic. Although the holiday week clouds things the leading events remain.
Lastly, the most important thing is the gut. Something makes me feel very uneasy (see below). Maybe it was the synthesis of what I mentioned above; maybe I am worried about locking in gains on this recent move up. Nevertheless, I liquidated everything except LEN as I don’t think homebuilders can get beat up much more (gee, wonder where I got that idea?).
North Korea lobbing missiles into the sea doesn’t help. I think there will be one more shakeout before we test old highs again. I don’t know if we’ll sink to (or below) the mid-June lows, but it could be painful. Predictions are pretty much worthless until events transpire. I’m only building an arguable case. The market doesn’t care or need reasons to steamroll every naysayer out there. Let the tape decide.
Side note: I was reading my Bible before the market opened and came across these verses:
“With her enticing speech she caused him to yield, with her flattering lips she seduced him. Immediately he went after her, as an ox goes to the slaughter, or as a fool to the correction of the stocks…” Proverbs 7:21-22
I don’t claim to have divine intervention on my side, and starting my day with this verse might have been what spooked me. Take it for what it’s worth, but the wording in this verse is uncanny in its application to bulls running up a blind (r)alley. The Bible remains the best book on investing ever written (not to mention the invaluable spiritual content). If you don’t have one, get one. |
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16445
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 9:02 am Post subject: |
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Three days of fear for the price of one.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
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mtvk
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 242
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| Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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Media sells fear of holding or missing out, to naive.
Best to have money diversified in all asset classes.
VTI, VEU, TIP, AGG, VNQ, DBC
GLD is in vertical ascent. Will have dramatic fall too.
If holding position only when price is above 10 month sma,
VTI, VEU and VNQ are below 10 month sma. |
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lmrhoades
Senior Poster
Joined: 17 Jan 2008
Posts: 112
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| Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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Henry and others...
This market seems to be falling out of bed and rolling over. I wonder if we are in a whole different ball game here and using past setiment numbers and such just aren't going to get it this time. Am i over thinking this crisis, is this financial armagendon?
The yen/dollar is nearing par...the only worth watching ones on CNBC, the traders in the pits, are talking dow 9,000 now. Can this be?
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16445
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2008 8:51 pm Post subject: |
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xxx ARMs says too far too fast: [edit: that's Richard Arms]
TheStreet.com
| Quote: | In the last two weeks, it has looked as though the markets would be working their way higher. We had seen a potential selling climax in late January that had then been successfully tested twice. We have, in fact seen a fairly good advance since then, especially in the last two days.
http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/common/images/storyimages/arms_DOW2_0226_big.gif
But now, suddenly, there are a number of warning signs that the move may have gone too far too fast. The most bothersome is the Arms Index. The five-day and 10-day moving averages, shown on the second chart below, have gone to extremely overbought levels. Each time we have seen such readings in the last few months, it has led to a market pullback.
On the first chart below of the Dow Industrials, we see that Tuesday's advance took it to just about the same level as was touched at the end of January. Resistance is to be expected in this neighborhood. Recently it has been suggested that aggressive traders get long and stay long. Now, in view of the above considerations, I think it is time to nail down some profits, or at the least, put in some close trailing-stop orders to protect profits. |
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!
Last edited by rffrydr on Mon Mar 03, 2008 9:01 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Kirk
Newbie
Joined: 05 Jun 2006
Posts: 11
Location: California
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 9:20 am Post subject: State Street Investor Confidence Index remains near historic |
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State Street Investor Confidence Index remains near historic Lows
This is more bad (good) sentiment news to support your long position.
I updated all three State Street Investor Confidence Index PDF charts here with the January data
http://forbestadvice.com/Money/Investing/Stocks/TA/Sentiment/StateStreet.html
A slight recovery from last month but still the 2nd lowest reading since 1998.
Merrill Lynch is also reporting very large cash positions in portfolios
Blog post:
Good News: Investors Are Miserable
"Fund managers and asset allocators are the most risk averse in more than seven years," reports Merrill on Wednesday. "A net 41% of fund managers say that they are overweight cash -- a level last seen in the aftermath of the '9-11' terrorist attacks. … Investment time horizons have almost shrunk back to extremes last seen in March 2003, while the number of investors adopting risk-averse investment strategies has hit new highs."[/b]
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Kirk out
http://www.theretirementadvisor.net
http://kirklindstrom.blogspot.com/ |
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rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16445
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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Timer's Digest.
There it is, Master H. just like said it would be--and just like I needed it to be:
| Quote: | 3 February 2008 By Mike Burke & John Gray
Overview
This week, advisors reacted to last Tuesday?s large market decline by running for cover, in spite of the talk of further Fed rate cuts.
The bulls moved all the way down to 36.7%, the lowest reading since June 16, 2006 when they were 35.6%. Prior to that single week, you have to go all the way back to October 2002 to find fewer bulls. That occurred at the bear market low, so the current readings are very encouraging and suggesting that there is enough pessimism out there for an important market bottom. Last week the bulls stood at 41.6%.
The bears moved up to 35.6%, from 32.6% a week ago. Just shy of the 37.4% reading shown for three consecutive weeks in August 2007. Those readings proved to be bullish.
The correction group rose to 27.7%, from the prior 25.8%. These advisors are looking for a near term drop in stocks, but they expect it will be a buying opportunity. These are potential bears as opinion shifts often occur in stages and some advisors shift from bullish to correction before turning bearish.
Much of the advisor pessimism was due to the very weak January market action and follow through last week. In addition, they increasingly mention that the economy is probably in a recession, echoing the commentators from the financial press. They also note the continuing sub prime mess.
In additional to the bullish advisory sentiment we have also been seeing excellent insider activity, with the best buying since 1982. Interest rates are in a definite ?down? cycle and many medium-long term indicators show their initial upmoves after declines to bear market low levels.
The difference between the bulls and bears is now just 1.1%, down from 9.0% a week ago. It shows a clear bullish level that was last achieved in June 2006. It shows a major contraction from the very negative 42.4% spread that occurred with the early October 2007 market high.
A bull-bear difference that narrows to around 15% (or less) and then expands provides a buy signal. That was the late August 2007 signal, the spread was a very bullish 3.2%, and before that on 14-March-2007 [16%], and in June 2006 [0% difference]. |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 11260
Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:01 am Post subject: |
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This quote is also worth mentioning:
| Quote: | | Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning said in an interview that while Bernanke didn't comment on interest rates, the Fed chief said that ``they have their eye on inflation and price stability, and if the credit crunch didn't ease, obviously they are going to have to do something about it.'' |
Given that financial companies are set to deliver their 10-Ks and 10-Qs (first audited results since the crisis began), time is now running out for a private solution to end the current credit crisis. If there is no private market solution by the end of this month, then there will be a public solution - whether it is through the Fed, the Treasury (via the Exchange Stablization Fund), Congress, or a global central bank easing coordination. |
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diesel
Moderator
Joined: 05 Oct 2006
Posts: 793
Location: Australia & New Zealand
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| Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:00 am Post subject: |
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Bernanke Stymied as Rate Cuts Fail to Lower Borrowing Costs
| Quote: | | Traders now see a 100 percent chance of at least a half- point reduction at or before the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 meeting, up from 68 percent on Jan. 31, when the Fed cited tighter credit conditions as a reason for lowering rates. |
| Quote: | | ``The increase in credit spreads has sort of worked against our policy,'' San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen told reporters at her bank yesterday. ``The fact that the spreads went up so dramatically really resulted in an effective tightening of financial conditions that our cuts were partly meant to address.'' |
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_c9_tQiZOLo&refer=home
Meanwhile M2 and Asset Backed Commerical Paper has bounced. As the liquidity threat eases the solvency threat remains alive and well.
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diesel
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Joined: 05 Oct 2006
Posts: 793
Location: Australia & New Zealand
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| Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Good positive divergences in the ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator and Summation index. Cant rule out a retest into end of month though... |
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16445
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:59 am Post subject: |
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All rallies start with short covering.
Held overnight lows at important 1320. Options out on friday. Weekend fright. This would be a good turn today... if we could only turn.
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16445
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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This from around the 6th:
Bespoke Investment Group said the SP most shorted stocks were the ones to rally the most since equities hit a bottom Jan 22. "The decile of stocks with the hightest short interest was up a whopping 17.1 percnet form the bottom, while the decile of stocks with the lowest short interest was only iup 5.3%"
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
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diesel
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Joined: 05 Oct 2006
Posts: 793
Location: Australia & New Zealand
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| Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Interestingly the unweighted index of NYSE common stocks is not confirming the lows in its NYSE cap wieghted counterpart. The same can be said for the NDX. Positive divergence... |
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dknoester
Veteran Poster
Joined: 29 Jul 2005
Posts: 164
Location: Ontario
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| Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: The Kirk Report |
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From this morning's Report:
"After the open, we have a report on pending home sales at 10:AM and more Fedspeak to look forward to. We also have a retest of the January lows ahead that many I think have been waiting for as a point to put money to work again.
If the bears can stomp out any rally attempts after the negative open today, we may finally get somewhere. If you want to put money to work now, you want to see substantially lower prices that discount all of the bad news we have and are likely to see, not just more of the "the market is cheap, the Fed will save us, we're near the bottom, etc." kind of hope that has put us in this tough place to begin with."
http://www.thekirkreport.com/
DK |
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16445
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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It was overbought...just go long the indices in the after/before hours and switch in during the day.
You should have plenty of cushion: we're retesting the Nasdaq/Rus lows after Cisco. With lots divergence on the major indices--cept that XOM again. None of us gave enough credit to tech weakness--though it should come last. Macy's says under pressure. The International Council of Shopping Centers already calls worst Jan. ever. Keep in mind the comps are going to get easier and easier.
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lmrhoades
Senior Poster
Joined: 17 Jan 2008
Posts: 112
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| Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 11:22 am Post subject: |
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This number comes out tomorrow, so any ideas on the trade?
I sold out of retail thinking it was overbought in the short term, was that a mistake?
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