DEADShort term sentimentsDEAD

[vin]

New here – mostly swing trading. I’ve been searching for a serious site and believe I have found it here. Mr. To’s commentaries are excellent. Let’s cut to it - I for one am spooked short term (1-3 weeks). Here are my reasons:
First, the current rally just doesn’t seem to have teeth. The move up on June 29 seemed exaggerated. It was just a big ‘Hurrah, the Fed did what we expected.’ Many read a future pause into Bernanke’s statement but who knows? It’s almost as if the market ‘willed’ a rally.
Second, after this delayed follow through day the major indexes responded with a pullback on increased volume (modest in percentage loss).
Third, two days prior (June 27th) all three indices had what I call a ‘heave day.’ They climbed over the previous day’s high only to close lower than the previous day’s low – all on increased volume.
Fourth, there was no doubt some end of the quarter window dressing and short covering.
What has happened since? Some call it consolidation; I call it distribution and selling into bounces. The accumulation volume has been anemic. Although the holiday week clouds things the leading events remain.
Lastly, the most important thing is the gut. Something makes me feel very uneasy (see below). Maybe it was the synthesis of what I mentioned above; maybe I am worried about locking in gains on this recent move up. Nevertheless, I liquidated everything except LEN as I don’t think homebuilders can get beat up much more (gee, wonder where I got that idea?).
North Korea lobbing missiles into the sea doesn’t help. I think there will be one more shakeout before we test old highs again. I don’t know if we’ll sink to (or below) the mid-June lows, but it could be painful. Predictions are pretty much worthless until events transpire. I’m only building an arguable case. The market doesn’t care or need reasons to steamroll every naysayer out there. Let the tape decide.

Side note: I was reading my Bible before the market opened and came across these verses:

“With her enticing speech she caused him to yield, with her flattering lips she seduced him. Immediately he went after her, as an ox goes to the slaughter, or as a fool to the correction of the stocks…” Proverbs 7:21-22

I don’t claim to have divine intervention on my side, and starting my day with this verse might have been what spooked me. Take it for what it’s worth, but the wording in this verse is uncanny in its application to bulls running up a blind (r)alley. The Bible remains the best book on investing ever written (not to mention the invaluable spiritual content). If you don’t have one, get one.

[rffrydr]

Let's CUT this thread: move on to something more managable


http://www.marketthoughts.com/forum/08-q4-short-term-sentiments-t10132.html
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[chestnutstime]

here is the historical perspective of VIX.

[gregf]

[quote="Odysseus"]Musings from Dostoiyevsky's "The Gambler"

P.S. I love clowns.

quote]


Awesome piece of work! Cheered my day!
Greg

[rffrydr]

Bring in the Clowns.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[diesel]

ROFL
_________________
“I was once Snow White, but I drifted” – Mae West

[Odysseus]

Musings from Dostoiyevsky's "The Gambler"

"Compared to War, all other forms of human endeaver pale in comparison. I do love it so!" Appologies to Georgie Patton.

Markets aren't exactly like war unless you take them personally. I do! In the confessional I can no longer claim that I am up for the year. Today the market whacked me for 6% and leaves me down 3% YTD. But you cannot eat relative performance. A good relative performer is just a loser that wants to boast. But a loser is still a loser. After an inflation adjustment he is just a BIGGER loser. Guilty, yer Honour. I did notice that rough rice is above 20 cents again. Not a good sign...The seeds (No pun intended) have been sown for a 21st century style of autarky. Instead of GARP, it becomes Rice At A Reasonable Price, RARP...We may be entering a silly season and silly seasons tend to be violent.

I confess no special insight into the month end selling for redemptions, hedge fund deleveraging, disappointment on todays vote, or the sheer terror of the unknown unknowns. All I know is that all asset classes went up against the wall. Very Stalinesque. I feel like a Romanov that was coaxed out of the celler with the promise of a biscuit, a beard trim and a warm bath.

What I find somewhat amusing about Main-Street's animosity with, so called, bailing out Wall Street is that there is little of Wall Street left to bail out! With the exception of the high profile 'Masters of The Universe super senior managers', everyone else with an equity stake has been utterly gutted and filleted like a ripe trout. Little guys left with 1,852 shares of Lehman. A Tort lawyers paradise. Even with no standing in law.

So much for social commentary. Well no! The Republican party just committed Subbuku. No great loss at this point. The Demuplicans will fare no better.

No more flint in the Zippo. 100% long and wrong, for now. I may, for the first time since 03, dip into my margarine account. Tastes like butter but they make you pay points and a big vig for the pleasure!!! I can be a foolish wabbit when my greed is up.

"They" are seriously thinking of suspending rule 157. ALL financial institutions are technically BK. The big get bigger. Hugumongus financial banks are being built. I always wanted to own a bank and as of today, as a citizen of the Republic, I own my smallish share of CITI.

I have been rethinking my 1974 experience. Not a perfect ecomomic comparison by any means but it does suggest a comparable stock market comparison. Either that or 1938-42. Either way, markets from the lows had at least a 50% move to interim new highs. I think it was Richard Russell that said his greatest call was for a new bull market beginning in 1974. It was indeed range bound til 82, but overall he was correct. Higher highs and higher lows.

May the farce stay with you. Buckle up tight, tie down hard and let her buck!!! The worst that usually happens is that a clown saves your butt.

P.S. I love clowns.

Regards,
Odysseus. Telemachas also sends greetings. Penelope is baking biscuits for the survivers.
_________________
Psychic with Alzheimers. I can predict what I will forget.

[diesel]

Love that quote on irony..

Faber has been waiting for the AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, AMZN to collapse before calling a bottom. Looks like he got what he wanted. Long bond also not confirming the breakdown. Positive divergences here there everywhere if you look for them.... Will we get my 5 figure print on the Dow though?
_________________
“I was once Snow White, but I drifted” – Mae West

[probtrader]

[rffrydr]

Or all the money taken out of the balance sheet last two months.

Add it all up and the "subprime crises" is more than covered and so too some of the deeper deleveraging estimates; 40billion in new equity this week.


I'm sitting here half trying to puke, half giddy that I'm only loosing money hand-over-fist. My stuff giving them a fight. Somebody on CNBC who has watched the floor for many years said he did not see the solace and resignation he's seen before. That gives me confidence that we are now players (being played) in a grander political scheme and can expect some kind of "reward."

That Wall St. has done everything possible to disassociate itself from same element since the great liberalization puts the heavy stamp on irony on it. So it must be true, right?
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[diesel]

You've got to wonder when all that money the fed is putting in to the system is going to start to matter. Effective fed funds rate was 1% last Friday.
_________________
“I was once Snow White, but I drifted” – Mae West

[probtrader]

Also note that Reuters estimates have been revised higher for the past two weeks now, first time since March.

[probtrader]

Note that gold is up "only" 3.38% today, still far away from the high of the year.

[rffrydr]

Now firmly below the 1982 uptrend.

Still no CEO open letter on payscale--SP500 all willing to take $1salary. Do it. Afraid of "backdoor" ownership--let's see what you have left to own.

Exxon down over $6, china down 14% t-bills down to zero. Hard to buy that. Thin markets will cease to be markets.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[krips]

The Nasdaq last hit these under 2000 levels in May 2005. So we are at almost 3.5 year lows on the Nasdaq.

[nodoodahs]