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HenryTo
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 Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:09 pm Post subject: Demographics |
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This is the obvious solution that I see as well. I see no reason why people should TOTALLY stop working at 65 - unless you find something much better to do and that won't bore you if you're to spend 40 hours a week on it. This will keep your mind sharp as well - especially for today's educated labor force. Working part-time or as a consultant would make one's retirement life much more enjoyable, I think. Golf is only fun if you can only play it twice a week. 
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FT.com
Lex: Demographics
Sunday October 9, 3:35 pm ET
The rapid ageing of the developed world is too often regarded as an inescapable doom that will drastically slow economic growth.
It is certainly true that demographic trends are hard to reverse. Moreover, the obvious remedies raising fertility rates and immigration run counter to prevailing social and political trends. That makes the extension of working lives, however unpalatable, the obvious solution. The good news, using numbers crunched by Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), is that this could make a big difference, even if implemented gradually.
Assume that labour force participation rates rise over the next two decades, so that each five-year group of workers is by then working at the current rate of the immediately preceding cohort. In other words, by 2025, there should be as many 55-59 year-olds working as there are people aged 50-55 working today.
Under this scenario, the combined workforce (defined as 15-70 year olds) of Germany, the UK, France and Italy would grow by 5 per cent rather than declining by 7 per cent. In Japan, the workforce would still shrink, but by 9 rather than 15 per cent. And in the US, it should rise by 17 per cent, in line with general population growth, rather than by just 10 per cent.
The pay-off would be huge. Basing its calculations on a model of total-factor productivity, Goldman projects substantially faster economic growth over the next 20 years than under today's base case. Trend growth in Europe would rise to 2.2 per cent a year, 0.6 percentage points faster than otherwise. US growth would rise by half a percentage point to 2.8 per cent and Japanese growth would rise 0.3 percentage points to 1.5 per cent.
As a result, GDP per capita in Europe would be 12-16 per cent higher than under today's base case, making its citizens thousands of dollars a year better off. US incomes would gain 11 per cent and Japanese ones 7 per cent. Enough, perhaps, to finance a decent pension for those who make it to 70.
Last edited by HenryTo on Sat Mar 07, 2009 8:37 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 9:34 pm Post subject: |
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Decoupling:
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 9:36 am Post subject: |
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The fall and fall of Duke Fightmaster, podcaster extrodinaire, who went flapping off a cliff, eyes on the sun:
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/421/last-man-standing?act=1
Story sets this guy up as a "quirk"--an oddball crushed in a mean vice between Horatio Alger myth and the hard promise of the internet. I see it as a cautionary tale for the self-esteem generation. All of those who (and you know who you are) grew up "empowered to be special" take heed. The world, as it always has, owes nobody nothing. Indeed, the most interested character here is the wifey. She clearly provides the rope to hang themselves--and their babies!
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2011 7:20 am Post subject: |
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What Occupy Wall St. can't deal with is that they already occupy their parent's!
| Quote: | "Short of winning the lottery, I don't know when I will be able to retire," says Mr. Davis. And he says his wife "probably will never retire."
"If the economy remains weak, you may see more parents sacrificing their financial health for their struggling adult offspring," warns NEFE President Ted Beck. |
--wsj
And how many parents are using their children as an excuse for the sticking around the job market they were gonna have to do anyway.
It's been a great stabilizer, and probably been better for the family bond (since we're becoming more asian every day) but look for a move toward, yes, the europe model down the road.
| Quote: | ...Faith, 23, has split her time between her mom's and dad's residences since she graduated in August 2010 with a communications degree from the University of South Florida. She is trying to repay about $23,000 in college debt with the money she earns as a part-time bartender. She yearns to be a TV journalist or professional singer, but "there aren't many opportunities here," she says.
Her older sister, Jackie, who is 26 and teaches part-time, owes about $60,000 on the loans she took out to get her mechanical-engineering and math degrees. "I feel like a burden" she says of living with her mother. "What is there to be proud of?"... |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat May 28, 2011 10:02 am Post subject: |
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Working longer means working somewhere else--like never before:
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The monarchs stamp out rivals and remain on the throne until they die or are forced out, while the ambassadors become senior statesmen, attending the economic forum at Davos, Switzerland, and similar affairs. Generals leave under pressure and spend their days plotting a Napoleonic return to power. Finally, there are the governors, who go on to do something else, like philanthropy or public service.
Rupert Murdoch at the News Corporation and Sumner M. Redstone at Viacom are quintessential monarchs, but Andrew S. Grove has became an ambassador for Intel, Mr. Sonnenfeld said. Steven P. Jobs is a general at Apple, and Henry M. Paulson Jr., formerly of Goldman Sachs, has emerged as a governor with his tenure as Treasury secretary under President George W. Bush. |
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/28/business/economy/28worker.html?_r=1&hp
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:33 pm Post subject: |
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There's a reason why revolutions are demographic events. From the "old devouring the young" in Greece, and a general outsourcing/inbreeding of the world the young are most likely to take up the call:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-youth-20110128,0,7095266.story
Of course nothing is obvious: one good exception to this is Ireland and sometimes it works in reverse as is now being seen in S. Korea with youth pushing for a stronger government. But the place of the young is most easily overlooked and most likely to be rued later.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2011 11:48 am Post subject: |
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The Old literally devouring the Young in Southern Europe:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/02/world/europe/02youth.html?_r=1&hp
| Quote: | LECCE, Italy — Francesca Esposito, 29 and exquisitely educated, helped win millions of euros in false disability and other lawsuits for her employer, a major Italian state agency. But one day last fall she quit, fed up with how surreal and ultimately sad it is to be young in Italy today.
It galled her that even with her competence and fluency in five languages, it was nearly impossible to land a paying job. Working as an unpaid trainee lawyer was bad enough, she thought, but doing it at Italy’s social security administration seemed too much. She not only worked for free on behalf of the nation’s elderly, who have generally crowded out the young for jobs, but her efforts there did not even apply to her own pension.
“It was absurd,” said Ms. Esposito, a strong-willed woman with a healthy sense of outrage. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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Case-Shiller data leaving a gap in our understanding of "household formation." What should be there is not. One answer: Mexico/mexican-americans.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 7:40 am Post subject: |
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The "Demi-Ashton Ratio":
What this guy forgets is that the West is its own brand. Indeed "brand" may be inherently western (japan being the exception that proves the rule). It is these very "animal spirits" of pure capitalism that makes cutting corners and screwing customers for short-term profits just good business sense in these countries. Some chinese chocolate milk anyone?
Of course the national champions will still be bought up and brands will develop....but the biggest beneficiary of these demographic trends (which only work if the demographics are making money BTW) may be us. Capital controls notwithstanding. Stay tuned. Nothing is obvious.
| Quote: | SENTIMENT TOWARD EMERGING MARKETS is unquestionably bright, largely because investors think that faster-growing economies will generate happier stock returns. Alas, that may not be the only reason.
Over the long run, certain emerging markets might be winners simply because their stock-buying population is swelling faster. A key metric to watch is a country's proportion of people in their 40s to those in their 20s, which Ajay Kapur, Deutsche Bank's Hong Kong-based strategist, dubs the Demi-Ashton ratio—after the 2005 pairing of the forty-something actress to her then-27-year-old sitcom star husband.
Think about it: In our 20s, we spend what little money we have on necessities like rent, tuition loans, bourbon and Eames chairs. Only when we grow older, wiser and wealthier–hopefully by the time we hit 40–do we allocate serious money to stocks and plan for retirement. No surprise then that as baby boomers came of age, the Demi-Ashton ratio in the U.S. shrank from 102% to 56% between 1960 and 1980–a nifty time for rock 'n roll but drab decades for the stock market. By 2000, however, this ratio would rebound to 109% in a heady ascent that paralleled stocks' boom.
While our Demi-Ashton ratio is projected to shrink slightly over the next two decades, the 40s-to-20s horde will surge in many emerging economies–to 84%, from 63%, in India; to 105%, from 73%, in Brazil; to 166%, from 78%, in Poland, and to 125%, from 99%, in China. Of course, things like valuations, financial crises, reforms and busts matter, too, and will create variations from this theme, Kapur notes, "but there is no escaping the power of demographics." He reckons the Demi-Ashton ratio will rise the most over the next five to 10 years in Indonesia, India and the Philippines within Asia; and in Brazil, Mexico, Poland and Turkey elsewhere. |
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204076004575616701900645156.html?mod=BOL_twm_col
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:04 am Post subject: |
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By 2040-50 China will be "older" than the US. Nothing is obvious.
Get rich before we get old? Chinese do think about this on a personal level alot. How much does it add-up to?
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