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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 10:14 am Post subject: |
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UPS taking a punch on world transactions. I think this should be interpreted as Globalization's backwash and say again, "Buy American." They had no problem on their Amazon sales.
And there's some biggies in the equation: | Quote: | Deutsche Bank analyst Kurt Sanger says a 100,000-yen, six-speed transmission would have cost $855 in 2007 when the dollar fetched 117 yen. At the rate of 79 yen to the dollar in early March, it would cost $1,265.
Global players such as Toyota and Honda even talk about the U.S. as an export base now. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 9:12 am Post subject: |
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...Buy American!
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:15 am Post subject: |
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Bridgewater on US vs. European and Japanese corporate earnings.
| Quote: | US Corporate Fundamentals Diverging from the Rest of the Developed World
In the past two years, US corporations have generated record cash flows through rising sales and an unprecedented improvement in operating margins. As we have discussed, the large fiscal stimulus helped US corporations aggressively cut labor costs while concurrently increasing their sales. Early in the financial crisis, US companies built up a large cash buffer to cover debt rollovers. US companies now have healthy balance sheets with large cash buffers and low debt levels, so they have been spending a large share of their excess cash buying back their own shares. These conditions have diverged from the circumstances of companies in the rest of the developed world, both due to recent trends and due to structural or cultural differences. For example, Japanese and European profits have lagged the recovery in US profits in recent years, primarily due to lower operating margins, and in both countries margins have declined materially in recent quarters. Corporate debt levels remain higher for European and Japanese companies. These companies also tend to be more capital-intensive, requiring a higher rate of reinvestment to sustain their businesses. The recent divergences in business and corporate conditions between the US and the rest of the developed world have contributed to divergences in asset performance: In the past two years, US equities outperformed Japanese equities by 50% and European equities by about 35%. On a rate of change basis, the high profitability of US companies has supported a significant recovery in business fixed investment, which has been a major direct support to US growth, while capex in the rest of the developed world has lagged, particularly in Japan. Going forward, the divergence in business conditions will continue to be a factor in sustaining better economic conditions in the US relative to the rest of the developed world. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 10:43 am Post subject: |
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Maybe because instead of falling in Q3 we got double-digit increases and the best auto buys since C4C......
There's been a pattern to most of the "surveys"--right down the consumer: badmouth before buying. Here in the US lowest Consumer Sentiment coincided with largest Black Friday spend ever. If you are a bear, hoarding is the only explanation you can rely on.
Either way, nothing is obvious:
http://articles.sfgate.com/2011-11-12/business/30392975_1_retailers-ron-boire-stores
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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Yardeni on latest S&P forward earnings:
http://blog.yardeni.com/2011/12/s-500400600-forward-earnings-factory.html
| Quote: | Industry analysts who cover the S&P 1500 either didn’t receive or didn’t read the European recession memo. European economies are heading down, according to November’s purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) for the euro zone and the UK. Emerging economies--including Brazil and China--are showing some signs of stress too, which most likely reflect their weakening exports to Europe, as well as the depressing impact of previous tightening of their monetary policies.
Yet, in the US, forward earnings managed to rise to new record highs for the S&P 400 MidCaps and the S&P 600 SmallCaps during the week of December 2. The forward earnings of the S&P 500 remains in a record high flat trend, which started earlier this year. It is up for the fifth straight week to $107.18, the highest reading in eight weeks. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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"...Or, they may be simply reading the financial press and plugging the bad news coming out of Europe into their spreadsheets....
Financials are political; currency-weighted tech; inflation strapped oils...there's a lot of vol embedded in these calcs. It ain't gonna come down to earnings....sadly.
We're down to a very speculative $80 '12 vs. $100 penciled in last summer. Meanwhile the surprises are still to the upside:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CESIG10:IND
| rffrydr wrote: | | So do we get a disinflationary 16X or a deflationary 12X? |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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So do we get a disinflationary 16X or a deflationary 12X?
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:59 am Post subject: |
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I'll go with the Materials etimates...with the Financials it would do well to remember that from '07 to '09 we already have a 90% writedown. I'm gonna say flat to up. 
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:27 am Post subject: |
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"E" is a mythology.
When this pops up in analyst's conversation I turn the volume down. In a balanced market at trend growth you've got something to compare. Take out finance and maybe you have a beginning; but then you have no banks. Now....
What you can say is that it is very possible that all the elements necessary to a sustained and elevated PE overlay a la ABJ Cohen are here--now if they can just come together
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