Economic Indicators

pete richardson · Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:28 pm Post subject: Economic Indicators

Folks,

Below is a link to the JP Morgan Global Index of purchasing manager's
monthly reports. There are about 10,000 companies around the globe
who contribute. It is presented as a "diffusion index" and is constructed
in a fashion similar to the ISM report. The index is dollar weighted and
not purchasing power parity weighted. I find it useful and timely.

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/JPMorgan/JPMorganMfg-Svcs070605.pdf

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:50 pm Post subject:

Thanks for the link, Pete.

Looking at the All-Industry (especially manufacturing) Output Index, it looks like that the growth of global economic activity peaked in early 2004 and is in the midst of rolling over. The question is: Is this just a mere slowdown in growth or is this the beginning of a recession - possibly in emerging markets?

I am going for the former - and I think the stock market will somehow price that in (and potentially pricing in a shallow recession) before we can have a sustainable stock market rally starting in Fall or Winter of this year.

We will see. BTW, Pete, please check your private messages! Smile

Henry