ECRI: Monthly Future Inflation Gauge Readings

[HenryTo]

ECRI's future inflation gauge now at a five-year high. Courtesy of MplsBear at wallstreetbear.com:
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U.S. inflation pressures rose in Aug - report
Fri Sep 2, 2005 09:39 AM ET

NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Higher interest rates and input prices, an increase in loan activity and stronger job growth all pushed U.S. inflation higher in August, a report said on Friday.

However, the rising inflation pressure was partly offset by supplier delivery times, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said.

ECRI's Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 121.1 in August from a upwardly revised 119.7 in July, the research group said.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, climbed to 4.1 percent from an upwardly revised 2.3 percent.

"The U.S. future inflation gauge is now at a five-year high, suggesting that cyclical inflation pressures in the U.S. are intensifying," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director for the ECRI.

[HenryTo]

FYI

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Down

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge rose to 99.5 from 98.5 in Juy, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

According to ECRI, the USFIG remains near July’s nine-month low. Thus U.S. inflation pressures are still in a cyclical downsizing.

[nodoodahs]

.

_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[HenryTo]

FYI

U.S. FIG Ticks Down

July 08, 2011

(BondBuyer) - U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slid to 101.0 from a revised 101.3 in May, originally reported as 101.0, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“With the USFIG falling for three straight months, U.S. inflation pressures are in a clear cyclical downturn,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

[nodoodahs]

"begun to recede" LOL not that they were really that high to begin with. Certainly not as high as they were in 2004, and look how THAT turned out ...

Five-Year TIPS breakevens (what are they worth?) back near 2%.

Futures odds on Sep Fed Funds have been locked at 100% odds of "no change" for about a month now ...
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[HenryTo]

FYI

U.S. FIG Drops

June 03, 2011

(BondBuyer) - U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slid to 101.0 from a revised 102.9 in April, originally reported as 102.8, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“With the USFIG hitting a seven-month low, underlying inflation pressures have clearly begun to recede,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

[HenryTo]

FYI

ECRI Inflation Gauge Drops to 102.8 in April
Friday, May 6, 2011

NEW YORK - U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slid to 102.8 from a revised 104.7 in March, originally reported as 104.9, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“With the USFIG dropping to a four-month low, inflation pressures have ebbed a bit,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

[HenryTo]

FYI

U.S. FIG Rises

Dow Jones
April 01, 2011
(Dow Jones) - The ECRI US future inflation gauge continues its rise in March, a trend sure to get noticed by Federal Reserve officials concerned about growing inflation expectations.

The USFIG increased to 104.9 last month from 103.6 in February. "With the USFIG rising to a 31-month high, underlying inflation pressures are steadily building," says Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI director.

[HenryTo]

FYI

U.S. FIG Rises

January 07, 2011

(BB) - U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 100.7 from a revised 100.0 in November, originally reported as 99.6, according to data released this morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The smoothed annualized growth rate, a comparison of the latest figures to the preceding year's average level, climbed to 3.1% from a revised 2.6% in November, originally reported as 2.2%.

“With the USFIG hitting an eight-month high, there is certainly no deflation danger at this time, but inflation is likely to stay relatively restrained,” ECRI said in a release.

[HenryTo]

FYI

U.S. Inflation Pressures Remain Subdued
Reuters
September 03, 2010

(Reuters) - A monthly measure of potential U.S. future inflation rose in August but continued to signal muted pressure, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 96.7 in August from 95.2 in July, originally reported at 96.1.

"Thus, U.S. inflation pressures remain subdued, but are not indicating deflation danger at this time," ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said in a statement.

The USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, rose to 0.2 percent from minus 1.0 percent, originally reported as 0.8 percent.

The reading was pulled higher by inflationary moves in all components apart from one related to the industrial sector, said Achuthan.

[HenryTo]

FYI
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U.S. FIG at 7-Month Low
Reuters
July 02, 2010

(Reuters) - A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures fell to a 7-month low in June, reflecting disinflationary forces in the industrial sector, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 97.4 in June from a revised 99.7 in May, which was originally reported at 98.9.

"Underlying inflation pressures are easing further, although deflation dangers are not yet back on the table," ECRI said in a statement.

The USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell to 5.7 percent in June from a revised 14.0 percent. The May figure was originally reported at 12.5 percent.

[nodoodahs]

Inflation pressures ebbing? No sign of significant CPI pressure in sight, no sign of Fed +rate action in sight.

However, if the current situation in Ts continues to bubble up, there may be a time to short the long bond soon ... but only for a month or so, and at about 200+ bps below where the so-called "bond vigilantes" THOUGHT they'd be shorting the long bond ...

It's been a while since I ran my bond models (and wouldn't dream of proposing any hypothetical 2-3 year or 5+ year buys in Ts here), but I'm guessing they'd say the same thing they said a month ago, only louder.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[rffrydr]

Achutan on Bloomie with some encouraging words: monthly numbers always finicky but rebound slowdown is normal and 17 of his 19 country indicators positive--count out Spain.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

FYI
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U.S. Inflation Gauge Falls To Five-Month Low
Reuters
June 04, 2010

(Reuters) - A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures fell to a five-month low in May as commodity price pressures ebbed, said a research group on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 98.9 in May from a revised 101.8 in April. The original number reported in April was 100.8.

"With the USFIG falling to a five-month low, underlying inflation pressures appear to be ebbing," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said in a statement.

The May USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell to 12.5 percent from a revised 23.4 percent. The April figure was originally reported at 21.2 percent.

[HenryTo]

Inflationary pressures remain subdued, per the ECRI:
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May 07, 2010

(Reuters) - A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures eased slightly in April after hitting an 18-month high in March, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 100.8 in April from a revised 101.0 in March, originally reported as 102.1.

"After a strong surge last year that took deflation off the table, the USFIG has flattened out in 2010, suggesting that inflation is not a near-term danger," ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said in a statement.

The gauge was pulled down by disinflationary moves in all components apart from employment and commodity prices, he said.

The March USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell to 21.2 percent from a revised 26.5 percent in March, originally reported as 28.9 percent.

[HenryTo]

A pause in inflationary pressures last month - but the upward cyclical pressures continue to build:
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US inflation pressures fall 1st time in 11 mo-ECRI
Fri Mar 5, 2010 8:12pm IST

NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures dipped in February after rising for 10 straight months, but upward cyclical trends in prices still hold, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, slipped to 101.4 in February from 102.1 in January, which was revised slightly higher from an original 102.0.

While the gauge's January dip follows 10 months of consecutive growth in the index, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said the group maintains its forecast that prices will continue to move steadily upward.

"Despite its first downtick in 11 months, the USFIG remains in a cyclical uptrend, with underlying inflation pressures continuing to trend upward," said Achuthan.

The December USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, also fell, to 31.3 percent from 38.0 percent in January, which was revised up from 37.8 percent.