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Ethanol "Reforms" Replies |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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Senate didn't really pull the plug on ethanol--subsidies moving to infrastructure of cents-per-gallon and generally supported by industry.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 8:24 am Post subject: |
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More irrationality in our "rational" energy markets:
Gasoline Prices Don't Care About Logic
By Jim Cramer
| Quote: | | Add ethanol to the list of energy products in gluts that seem to do nothing to bring down the price of oil or the price we pay at the pump. Last night Archer Daniels , on its call, talked about the ethanol glut and how the stuff is being produced, basically, at well below the cost of gasoline. The company explains that if more ethanol would be allowed to be blended into the gas mix, gasoline prices would naturally come down. The amazing thing, though, is that the glut in ethanol has done nothing to lower the price of gasoline even after it is subsidized -- outrageously -- by our government. The subsidy is so out of control that Sen. Coburn, an archconservative from Oklahoma, and Sen. Feinstein, an extremely liberal senator from California, are trying to eliminate the subsidy because it costs the taxpayer $6 billion.... |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 8:10 am Post subject: |
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Well there doesn't seem much left to investable ethanol: now, rightly, relegated to the fuel biz. Ironically ethanol was a casualty of the very force that gave it birth, inflation--and politics. Not the Great Recession.
Now that we are all getting comfortable investing in governmental properties ("national champions" are the new, new) perhaps we shouldn't I'm keeping an eye on Pacific Ethanol coming out of its "restructuring." Whatever happens here, a black cloud will shadow this industry for a long time. But the burning pile on the Gulf of Mexico and a stubborn financial imput to crude--and the schedule of new regulation in the offing. The ultimate underperformance of electric vehicles has me looking.
Here's a piece from one of the boosters:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/197045-corn-ethanol-ripe-for-a-rebound
I'm sorry you're not gonna wipe that food-deprivation stain away but some of the other imputs are valuable. I'd be interested if there are any other ethanol followers out there with something to add. For me, this is a domestic play only, not going to brazil.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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Is there no more trash? I'm giving these guys a hard look:
http://www.pacificethanol.net/site/_documents/news/PEIXAmendedPORReleaseFinal.pdf
The new electrics will only underscore the need for biofuels. Only there won't be any mania anymore. That's what we IRA investors want. These guys don't need a complete cellulose solution.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:32 pm Post subject: |
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From the broker:
| Quote: | It is
worth noting that the EPA approved soy-based biodiesel as part of its biofuels
mandate. The agency had previously said that soy-based fuels did not meet the
50% emissions reduction requirement, but it has since changed its “indirect land
use” calculations to allow it. Perhaps the agency is warming up to the more
commercial alternative fuels, or maybe they are simply frustrated with the lack of
success in developing fuels from switchgrass and other alternatives and
acknowledging that they need soy to meet the mandates. In any case, the
government has given its nod of approval to soy biodiesel, and blenders will have
to up production. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16932
Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
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Location: Sunny California
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rffrydr
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Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:54 pm Post subject: |
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The last "unintended consequence," BK. Yet another industry trading down to marginal costs of production.
| Quote: | Ethanol producers
Published: November 3 2008 09:22 | Last updated: November 3 2008 22:30
Sometimes, the best cure for a hangover is to keep drinking. But ethanol investors, hit by the shakes since they binged on the corn-based fuel in 2005 and 2006, should think twice before taking the hair of the dog. The bankruptcy of VeraSun Energy, the biggest listed US ethanol producer, is the latest grim news for a sector where listed companies have lost 80-90 per cent of their market value over the past two years. Ironically, for an industry savaged by rising corn costs, VeraSun shows that falling corn prices are one of the biggest short-term threats.
Like some rivals, VeraSun took out hedges to protect against rising prices after corn hit a record price of $8 a bushel in June. Yet those hedges backfired as bushel prices went on to halve, leaving the company strapped for cash. For others also, the recent pullback in corn prices has offered little respite. As recession fears have grown, ethanol prices have plunged in tandem with corn prices, so depriving producers of any hoped-for boost to margins.
Eventually, demand will improve. The amount of ethanol to be blended into gasoline in the US is set to quadruple by 2022 because of government mandates. With annual sales running at about $20bn, the supply glut that has pushed down ethanol prices should ease by 2010 or 2011 as demand catches up. But in the long run, low barriers to entry – all it takes to become a producer is a field of corn and a simple still – means gains will be fleeting. New producers will compete away margins, leaving the biggest buyers of ethanol – the refiners who blend it into gasoline – able to dictate prices. The likely result is prices that are sufficient to keep ethanol plants ticking over, but barely profitable. All the more reason for investors to pull up the covers and go back to bed. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Feb 07, 2007 1:20 pm Post subject: |
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Ethanol as already "reformulated" EIA stats.
| Quote: | Some oil analysts have already noted that gasoline blending component stocks make up a much larger share of total gasoline stocks than a year ago. This observation has led some analysts to ask whether some structural shift in the market has caused this to happen. The answer is an unequivocal “Yes.”
It is important to remember that, a year ago, some parts of the country were using reformulated gasoline, or RFG (a cleaner burning gasoline required in many urban areas) that contained Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE), while other areas used RFG that contained ethanol. RFG with MTBE could be blended at the refinery and moved through the pipeline system, and as such, could be stored for use later. Thus, in EIA statistics, inventories of this gasoline could be measured by looking at the volume of finished RFG stocks. However, because of ethanol’s propensity to mix with water, most terminals do not store finished RFG mixed with ethanol, but instead, store the ethanol separately from the base gasoline components to which it will be added. Ethanol stored separately is not counted as a part of gasoline inventories at the terminal. This ethanol is added as delivery trucks are filled to take the gasoline to retail outlets, but EIA inventory data do not include volumes stored at retail stations. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 10:45 am Post subject: |
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State of the Union postulated ethanol production in little over a decade of little over our entire corn production. Word in Davos, tarriffs on the block:
http://washingtontimes.com/business/20070125-102020-9126r.htm
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