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European Banks
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Author European Banks
HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:14 pm    Post subject: European Banks Reply with quote

Solid deal still not in place--but the decision to force larger haircuts (in lieu of a Greek default) onto banks is definitely a done deal.
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Big banks under pressure in Europe crisis
Banks under pressure in Europe crisis, pushed to raise capital, take Greek losses

BRUSSELS (AP) -- Big banks found themselves under pressure in Europe's debt crisis Saturday, with finance chiefs pushing them to raise billions of euros in capital and accept huge losses on Greek bonds they hold.

The continent's biggest financial institutions were at the center of talks as leaders entered marathon negotiations in Brussels, at the end of which they have promised to present a comprehensive plan to take Europe out of its crippling debt crisis.

"Between now and Wednesday we have to find a solution, a structural solution, an ambitious solution and a definitive solution," French President Nicolas Sarkozy said as he arrived in Brussels. "There's no other choice."

In addition to new financing for Greece, leaders want to make the banking sector fit to sustain worsening market turmoil and turn their bailout fund into a strong safety net that will stop big economies like Italy and Spain from falling into the same debt trap that has already snapped Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

But before the final deadline on Wednesday, they have to overcome many obstacles.

On Saturday, the finance ministers of the 27-country European Union decided to force the bloc's biggest banks to substantially increase their capital buffers -- an important move to ensure that they are strong enough to withstand the panic that a steep cut to Greece's debt could trigger on financial markets.

A European official said the new capital rules would force banks to raise just over euro100 billion ($140 billion), but finance ministers did not provide details on their decision. The official was speaking on condition of anonymity because it had been agreed to let leaders unveil the deal at their first summit Sunday.

"We have made real progress and have come to important decisions on strengthening European banks," George Osborne, the U.K.'s chancellor of the exchequer, said as he left Saturday's meeting.

The deal on banks was likely to be the only major breakthrough ready to announce on Sunday, leaving many important decisions and negotiations to be completed by Wednesday night.

On Friday, the first day of the marathon talks, the finance ministers of the 17 countries that use the euro -- and which have found themselves at the center of the crisis because of the currency they share -- agreed to demand Greece's private creditors take big losses on their bondholdings.

But they still have get the banks to come along and convince them that the cuts are the best way to ensure that Athens can eventually repay its remaining debts.

The picture in Greece, whose troubles kicked off the crisis almost two years ago, is bleaker than ever. A new report from Athens' international debt inspectors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- proved that a preliminary deal for a second package of rescue loans reached in July is already obsolete.

That plan would have seen banks and other private investors take losses of some 21 percent on their Greek bond holdings, while the eurozone and the IMF were to provide an extra euro109 billion ($150 billion) in bailout loans.

But the report showed that in the past three months Greece's economic situation has deteriorated so dramatically that for the bank deal to remain in place, the official sector would have to provide some euro252 billion ($347 billion) in loans. Alternatively, to keep official loans at euro109 billion ($150 billion), banks would have to accept cuts of about 60 percent to the value of their Greek bonds.

"I believe we are now arriving at a more realistic view of the situation in Greece," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the country that has long been advocating a more radical solution to Athens' problems.

But Merkel and her eurozone counterpart were on for tough negotiations with the banks.

Charles Dallara, who has been representing private investors in the talks with the eurozone, said Saturday that negotiations that carried on sporadically throughout Saturday were making only slow progress.

"We're nowhere near a deal," he told The Associated Press in an interview.

Dallara, the managing director of the Institute of International Finance -- the world's biggest bank lobbying group -- said current plans to cut Greece's debt would leave the country as "a ward of Europe" for years.

He declined to say how much in losses banks would be willing to accept, saying only "we would be open to an approach that involves additional efforts from everyone."

The eurozone has been working hard to reach a voluntary agreement with banks, rather than forcing losses onto the lenders, because that could avoid triggering billions of euros on payout for bond insurance and could destabilize markets even further.

However, in recent weeks some officials have no longer insisted that the deal remain voluntary.

Agreement on arguably the most important measure in the crisis plan remained even more elusive Saturday: boosting the firepower of the currency union's euro440 billion ($600 billion) bailout.

Increasing the effectiveness of the fund -- called the European Financial Stability Facility -- is meant to help prevent larger economies like Italy and Spain from being dragged into the crisis. At the same time, the EFSF may be asked to help governments shore up their banks if they can't raise the necessary funds on financial markets.

But Germany and France still disagree over how to give the EFSF more firepower. France wants the fund to be allowed to tap the ECB's massive cash reserves -- an option that Germany rejects. Weaker economies, meanwhile, are wary of signing up to the other two parts of the grand plan -- bigger bank capital and cuts to Greece's debt -- without assurance that sufficient buffers are in place.
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Author European Banks Replies
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2011 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They laugh at the "DAV's" and ridicule the German/English/French sovereign holdings marks....just no respect for mark-to-market anymore. Oh yeah, that's what this crises is all about.

Idea
Quote:

We are disappointed with the expected capital injection of just over €100bn. We discussed in our Euro TARP macro sensitivity analysis a
minimum of €150bn, mild recession scenario €180bn, and stress test sensitivity of €230bn. Hence we were hoping for significantly more than €100bn of capital to create confidence in Eurobanks.
BE
Based on about €100bn discussed capital injection, we estimate €30bn of capital deficit for the larger systemic banks equals to UCG €9.4bn, SG €3.7bn, BBVA and Santander €3.1bn, Banco Popular €2.8bn, DB €2.2bn, Sabadell €2.0bn, Intesa and Bankinter €0.9bn, and Commerzbank €0.8bn (see Table 2 page 3). We are using a core T1 Basel 2.5 by YE2012 under the EBA base case, and mark to-market of periphery sovereign exposures as well as Germany, UK, France.
BE
We believe a potential mark-to-market of all sovereigns is flawed as it assumes realized gains on exposures such as German, French and UK gov’t bonds. However, one cannot dispose of these bonds and realize the gain and at the same time include them in the liquidity buffer to be pledged with the ECB. This is double counting in our view. The rationale of marking-tomarket for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain is different as it takes into account realized losses in a haircut scenario based on mark-to-market CDS pricing.
BE
In addition, giving the banks until July 2012 to reach the capital levels is also a material disappointment in our view as it creates uncertainty for the ‘first loss piece equity holder’ in respect to dilution impact as discussed in our report Euro TARP– devil in the detail.
BE
What to own? Since we published our initial note on Euro TARP on 26-Sep- 11 previous option-like valued banks BNPP, SocGen, UCI, ISP, CBK materially rallied with the market being UW banks/short gamma. Now fundamentally we believe Euro banks are not offering material upside at 0.75x P/NAV 2012E post potential €100bn recap for RoNAV 9%. We reiterate our preference for more defensive banks HSBC, Swedbank, DnB NOR, as well as UBS and DB as our default EU OW. We remain cautious on French, Italian, Spanish Banks as well as UK-domestic banks. We believe a rally could be short lived driven by sovereign spread tightening (with a potential leverage EFSF solution) and credit spread tightening. However, medium-term we remain concerned about credit market opening with €680bn in 2012E to be refinanced. Hence we remain cautious.


JPM CAZ via Alphaville


It is conveniently forgotten that as these huge debt loads are not being rolled over, the money is rolling into the banks. Yin to every Yang.
Dexia bad bank is a buy. Santander Prefs and all brit Prefs buy. BOI buy; Soc Gen buy. Raif, buy. Sovereigns a buy across the board. Eni a buy. Cold on DB, Unicredit, UBS, CS, HSBC, BARC, DnB
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

e108B, less than half "demanded" last week. They just paid for it with transaction tax. Dexia is cream on top. Still looking for some gold leasing here.

Super Sarko fencing with UK, Cameron: we're on the right track now! He's found his calling...where he can't hurt anybody--or anything.
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