European Central Bank

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:22 am Post subject: European Central Bank

Rumors swirling around that the governing council of the ECB has been holding emergency meetings:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/03/17/afx4779928.html

HenryTo · Posted: Mon May 17, 2010 9:58 am Post subject:

The ECB discloses that it had just purchased a pitiful €16.5 billion of sovereign debt last week as part of its stabilization strategy. More importantly, it revealed that it is set to drain this liquidity in the broader market tomorrow to offset any "inflationary effects":

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/db82273c-61c4-11df-aa80-00144feab49a.html

rffrydr · Posted: Sat May 15, 2010 1:18 pm Post subject:

No? QE keeps a rollin' in the context of a re-emerging consumer is bad? Inflation?!

That Lehman metaphor is really going wild now. Here it is in all its hysterics:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/14/232201/europe-is-lehman-fied-part-quatre/

"No buyer of last resort...." Seems to be the fetish. Of course that is exactly what a fiat currency is--THE buyer of last resort. Period. The markets are broken in that, like a hammer that only sees a nail, everything became a bond--money flows that could be rated. Sovereigns are in their own historic decline but they are not "bonds."

Really we couldn't have asked for better: after carrying us this last two years, the savings cultures (if not quite un-leveraged) with socialistic jobs structures have taken pain for the benefits of our exports (and their investment here) while we paid down (refi-ed and killed) debt and worked our way to frugal-fatigue. The sweet spot.

The once "developing world" restocked on base imputs and cut a very serious inflation problem. Now it's our turn to pull. 1.20-25 euro will work wonders for central europe-- more than offsetting fiscal rectitude. And the banking system, no matter how crazily interlinked, at bottom, just doesn't have the leverage. It's already a utility. Europe now has the crisis it needed to proceed along the unification path.

The chinese may have even gotten to the point where they are willing to invest in more than what they can't touch. They won't be buying any euro-banks but don't be surprised if their newfound talks with the Shieks don't open some backdoors to europe.

It will never be easier to attack governments ladled with debt than now. So it's now. The wolves are fed for the winter.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Sat May 15, 2010 8:44 am Post subject:

Trichet's latest comments on the European sovereign debt crisis. This isn't going to be helpful to the market when it opens on Monday.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trichet: economy in deepest crisis since WWII

Sat May 15, 6:51 am ET

BERLIN – The President of the European Central Bank is quoted as saying that he still sees Europe's economy in its deepest crisis since World War II or even World War I.

German News weekly Der Spiegel on Saturday reported that Jean-Claude Trichet said that since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008 "we have experienced and we are experiencing really dramatic times."

In an interview to be published Monday, Trichet linked the recent exacerbation of the eurozone's debt crisis to the 2008 collapse of the U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, saying "the markets didn't work anymore."

Trichet was further quoted as saying that there was no doubt the economy "is in its most difficult situation since World War II or perhaps even since World War I."

rffrydr · Posted: Sun May 09, 2010 12:44 pm Post subject:

Culture comes first. You will see more than a few posts on this board about the (tragic?)ironic "bundesbank" passing to the hands of a frenchman. Perhaps it was France's greatest modern moment--and boy they sure as hell were going to show they could be more german than the german. That raises the question: then who's going to be the French?!

It doesn't work without the french.

macroman BTW just called it a top there:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2010/05/sea-change.html

Meanwhile everyone in europe ex greece is growing: Northern Europe ISM readings implying 3% GDP numbers. That's gotta be worth a couple OTM calls at least.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

diesel · Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 4:10 am Post subject:

Macroman chimes in....

diesel · Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 3:35 pm Post subject:

You would of thought they would have cut interest rates to 0-0.25% so everyone knows QE is on the table. With massive deflationary pressures building they continue to hold the hard line.

The ECB has got to be the worst of the central banks. Hopefully they get whats coming to them....
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All cats are gray in the dark.

HenryTo · Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:14 am Post subject:

Trichet clarifies its (or Weber's) position on the potential "nuclear option" of quantitative easing. After the ECB changed its technical rule of accepting Greek sovereign debt as collateral, many investors went to the extreme and believed that monetizing Spanish, Portuguese debt, etc, will be the next logical move. Trichet resists this idea, however. Of course, if push comes to shove, I suspect that Trichet will start purchasing European sovereign debt but the ECB is very stubborn and I doubt they would do that unless/until the DJIA is at least 1,000 to 1,500 points lower.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeiaj8kohS2A&pos=1

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Dec 12, 2009 1:30 pm Post subject:

The ECB has plans to revive the asset-backed markets - but no details on what exactly it will do, however:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aU5u73neD6.Q&pos=7

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 12:31 pm Post subject:

Market pricing in symbolic raise in a grinding economy:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_eKH-tiSXFbc/Sxd4qPdeI-I/AAAAAAAAGC8/F_8YFB2pkCY/s1600-h/EURIBOR.gif

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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 1:49 am Post subject:

This could be the Final Act that takes the US Dollar Index to multi-year lows. Of course, we all know that Europe overall is in deep trouble, scaling back liquidity now won't be bullish for the Euro or for European economic growth in the long-run.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alROdmw77fBM&pos=3

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 7:24 am Post subject:

Move to adjustable rates on buy-ins. Nice bluff.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3dEs7AWD0fA&pos=4
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2009 9:18 pm Post subject:

Expectations are anything but:

Ringing in the new year with a co-ordinated "hike"?
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Oct 08, 2009 8:46 am Post subject:

European Central Bank remains rather dovish:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6gNOORBiEDg

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:40 pm Post subject:

More significantly, Trichet's comments suggest that the ECB - one of the most hawkish central banks - will not exit its easy monetary policy anytime soon. This is the most significant piece of news that came out of the G-20 meeting. As usual, the mainstream media focused on things that are not truly important (at least for our purposes), such as bankers' bonuses, clawbacks, etc.

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Sep 05, 2009 10:06 am Post subject:

Trichet hoping for "automatic" exit:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c50df098-98b7-11de-aa1b-00144feabdc0.html
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!