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rffrydr
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 Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: |
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Cisco offers a warning NOT from a bank (TRS):
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAL0880611920080210
| Quote: | Significantly, the Cisco numbers suggested conditions were deteriorating faster in Europe than the United States. In the quarter through January order growth in Europe more than halved to 8 percent. U.S. order growth slipped only one percentage point to 12 percent.
"It's the most cautious I've seen CEOs in the U.S. and Europe in many years," Cisco Chief Executive John Chambers said. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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| The deteriorating conditions in the Euro Zone and Japan have been captured by both the OECD and the ECRI leading indicators weeks prior. In other words, the US has not been leading the global economy downwards a la the "recoupling scenario." There was also no decoupling to speak of outside of EMs. Europe and Japan have been slowing down at the same time that the U.S. had. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 11:04 am Post subject: |
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In light of all this, the ECB is still talking about hiking rates - simply amazing. The ECB is using monetary policy to target "second-round effects" in union wage increases, etc, when what the Euro Zone needs is a (much) more flexible labor market.
Given that the unions generally have not had any wage increases over the last five years, however, this is not surprising. Moreover, this has come in light of rising productivity and rising profits in the Euro Zone economy, so I think they would let this one slide. On a forward-looking basis, I doubt the latest wage demands will extend into 2009, given the slowing global economy and the high Euro - so I think the ECB will "come around" and start cutting sometime in the second half of this year. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 7:38 am Post subject: |
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And Trichet got voted "Man of the Year." It's rife however in "Eastern Europe" where much of industrial europe is now located.
This one is struggling:
http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=AX%20M8-DT
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Suomodo
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Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
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| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: |
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| HenryTo wrote: | | In light of all this, the ECB is still talking about hiking rates - simply amazing. |
How would you call a 13% fall in S&P in just two days .. CRASH. What would you expect from FED ... immediate and strong ACTION.
And thats what exactly happened to DAX on 21st January.
The reaction of ECB ... Nothing!
Nihil novum sub sole :
Very famous speculator and writer of the last century Andre Kostolany critised the Bundesbank for its policy for decades:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andr%C3%A9_Kostolany
ECB has never and will not take care of the markets the way like FED seems to do. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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diesel
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 3:47 am Post subject: |
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKBjk.ApoCVQ&refer=home
Socgen reported a 23 percent decline in first-quarter profit on increased provisions for risky loans and writedowns tied to the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapse.
It will be interesting to see what exposure the old world had to the new world. 
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:54 pm Post subject: |
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Analysis of the Euro Zone's latest GDP numbers courtesy of Global Insight:
http://www.globalinsight.com/SDA/SDADetail13752.htm
| Quote: | Eurozone GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in the second quarter of 2008, according to a "flash" estimate from Eurostat. This is in marked contrast to the 0.7% q/q expansion seen in the first quarter. Consequently, annual Eurozone GDP growth moderated to 1.5% in the second quarter of 2008 from 2.1% in the first, 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2007, and a peak of 3.2% in the first quarter of 2007.
The contraction in second-quarter Eurozone GDP was partly a correction to the first-quarter performance, which was significantly inflated by some temporary factors, most notably the mild winter, which boosted construction activity in Germany (where GDP jumped 1.3% q/q during the first quarter). Nevertheless, the second-quarter slowdown ran deeper than that, and it is evident that the Eurozone economy has lost significant momentum in recent months.
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The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated at its August policy meeting that it holds a neutral policy stance following its decision to raise its key interest rate from 4.00% to 4.25% in July. We believe that 4.25% will prove to be the peak in interest rates. This reflects our expectation that Eurozone economic activity will be muted over the rest of 2008 and during much of 2009. We also expect labour markets to soften increasingly across the Eurozone, thereby undermining workers' bargaining power and capping pay. Markedly weaker Eurozone growth, softening labour markets, extended tight credit conditions, and a still relatively strong euro should largely contain and then increasingly dilute underlying inflationary pressures over the coming months. Consequently, we expect the ECB to keep interest rates at 4.25% throughout the rest of 2008, before cutting them gradually to a low of 3.50% in the third quarter of 2009. |
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rffrydr
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